NIL/Delusion/It's Over/Matter of Time

[Pseudo Nym]

I made this point several months ago in a thread about the NIL being the end, that we can't keep up, regardless of what we try to do.

To be fair, some people said, save it for another day (it wasn't too long after the end of the football season) and the mood was pretty glib to say the least so I did.

Now that everyone seems to be caught up, what does the future for UNT Football with the NIL look like?

First of all, the NIL is bolstered by State and Federal Laws, it aint going anywhere, no matter what or who wants to vote otherwise in college athletics (there's a reason why the NCAA never wanted to go down this road and some people still can't seem to make this connection, maybe the politicians looking for votes should've gone elsewhere but clearly not enough people understand this so  they got their votes and college athletics got the NIL)

Second, it might be surprising but a Rec & Leisure Studies undergraduate class at UNT predicted this entirely in 2009/10 and the point was made that UNT would be better off investing in basketball at the time and becoming a basketball school - take that debate anyway you want, hindsight is 20/20 but apply it to today and how the NIL is and will continue to shape the college recruiting landscape, paying for 12 players is a lot more palpable than paying for football players.

Finally, how much are we willing to waste to stay DI?  I'm not happy about it but if you have any common sense and can see, even a few years into the future, the gambit is over, the Power 5 and "Haves" have won, it's a futile and naive effort to believe UNT can compete in the new "NIL-NCAA" Era (PERIOD).

Pro leagues have salary caps for a reason: parity and revenue sharing saved the NFL and is the benchmark for the most succesful pro leagues in the world = THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN WITH THE NIL/NCAA ERA - THE LAW MAKES THAT IMPOSSIBLE (AND TO TRY WOULD BE ILLEGAL - think here, if I need to spell it out, I will but don't distract from the point)

What's the point?

IT'S TIME TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER BY WAY OF AN ACTUAL STUDY WHICH CAN BE ONE IN-HOUSE BY UNT GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS OF TRANSITIONING TO DII SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND THE COST OF DOING SO VERSUS NOT DOING SO - ALL FACTORS TO BE INCLUDED.

I'm talking about a business decision that is the best decision for the University moving forward. 

I'm talking about being a realist vs. idealist.

I'm talking about being responsible.

I'm talking about forward thinking.

I'm talking about reading the writing on the wall.

Do I want this? NO 

Is it avoidable? YES - By someone or some group coming up with MILLIONS of dollars every year in NIL money for UNT Student Athletes.

Is that possible? NO - that's the bottom line and Stone Cold doesn't need to say so, it's sooo obvious!

So what are we going to do?  Probably the most irresponsible thing:

Bury our heads in the sand, avoid the inevitable, keep paying out fat salaries and burning money to try and keep (what exactly, I'm not sure) alive, and then in a few years and millions of dollars wasted, say, "well, we tried."

GO D2 AND DOMINATE EARLY FOR A BETTER FUTURE!

BS - You don't need a crystal ball for this one, just a delusional perspective.

[DentonStang]

You are all talking out of your butthole on NIL.  It doesn't take that much to play at the mid level. You can do it if someone would take leadership and organize. 

[Pseudo Nym]

1 minute ago, DentonStang said:

You are all talking out of your butthole on NIL.  It doesn't take that much to play at the mid level. You can do it if someone would take leadership and organize. 

THE GOALS ARE SO HIGH AND THE VISION SO CLEAR WITH THIS ONE

It takes millions every year to compete - look around, you'll see the amount of money committed to this already.

BTW, very soon, ESPN will no longer have a reason to broadcast college football and basketball games, especially the streams which mostly come at a loss, that money to mid-majors is the next to go, or the deals restructured for a lot less $$ (create a separate thread if you want a deep dive into this).

[Wag Tag]

P5 schools are going to break away and education will become secondary.  This is money being paid outside the AD. There are more schools like UNT from a wealth standpoint than an A&M. There is no reason a conference can’t be formed from these schools with financial restrictions and have their own playoffs and champion.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Wag Tag

[Jonnyeagle]

2 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

 This is money being paid outside the AD. There are more schools like UNT from a wealth standpoint than an A&M.

THerein lies the irony.   What happens to schools that are at the bottom of the major category?  If you get rid of us who will they get to beat up on so their fanbase stays happy?  I think the A&M's need schools like UNT to prop themselves on top of.

[Pseudo Nym]

9 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

THerein lies the irony.   What happens to schools that are at the bottom of the major category?  If you get rid of us who will they get to beat up on so their fanbase stays happy?  I think the A&M's need schools like UNT to prop themselves on top of.

WHAT???? LMFAO

I get what you're saying here, but......... yeah..... Ironic indeed 😭

There's probably a better way to go about making your point that even the smallest house on the most expensive street has a higher value than the biggest house on the least expensive street.

I'm saying the taxes on our small house on the most expensive street are no longer sustainable and keeping the house for looks is no longer realistic.

[Cr1028]

54 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

You are all talking out of your butthole on NIL.  It doesn't take that much to play at the mid level. You can do it if someone would take leadership and organize. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

14 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Truth hurts.

[Cr1028]

56 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Rich teams- Lambo is just one of his deals

https://247sports.com/Article/Texas-Longhorns-football-RB-Bijan-Robinson-lands-NIL-deal-with-Lamborghini-dealership--187230181/Amp/

Poor teams - $1k per month from a dentist office and whatever McCombs Ford paid McCormick.

https://sanantonioreport.org/nil-deals/?amp

💩 

50ft

Us - a valiant effort by a single fan.

https://meangreennation.com/buy-the-deandre-torrey-shirt-from-mgn-shop/

[GrandGreen]

Don't agree with your main premise at all.

In relative terms nothing that NIL has done or will do, really changes the obvious facts that schools in G5 conferences are at a tremendous disadvantage for competing for the best players and national championships.

Players have always been swayed by money, as in what it buys for a program; all the way from room and board to the illegal extras that have always been a part of college sports. 

My assumption would be that teams with the best support will be able to provide more for their players either legal or other.   The prime P5 programs may shift rankings a little as some with more aggressive NIL programs will advance. Yes, I know that the schools cannot be directly involved per the law; but the big effect will be it will just be a lot easier for fans to funnel money to buy players.  

It is not obvious to me that this is going to change the competitiveness of G5 level programs. 

G5's for the most part, can't compete with P5's and that won't change.  NIL will only be a factor for G5's, as some teams will be better equipped than others to have the support to raise NIL funds. 

I would suspect that NT will be in the same relative position they are now in the G5 ranks.  Teams like SMU with access to more big money fans will continue to have big advantages over their peers. 

I think the rule change that is most devastating to NT and other lower tier programs is the new transfer regulations which encourage schools to raid rosters of other teams.   

Why waste time and effort on developing high school players, when you can sign proven college players. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by GrandGreen

[El Paso Eagle]

4 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

P5 schools are going to break away and education will become secondary.  This is money being paid outside the AD. There are more schools like UNT from a wealth standpoint than an A&M. There is no reason a conference can’t be formed from these schools with financial restrictions and have their own playoffs and champion.

My guess surely to be wrong - The FBS schools will break away for football and the NCAA will continue to run FCS and below along with other sports. I believe it was Sam Houston's president that said that they would have preferred to wait and move up but he was not sure if that would be possible later on. There will be two distinctively different divisions within this new College Football Association, similar to the current P5 and G5, but the top division will be smaller than the current P5. My guess 30-40 schools. You will have two sets of playoffs.

[Tom McKrackin]

5 hours ago, DentonStang said:

You are all talking out of your butthole on NIL.  It doesn't take that much to play at the mid level. You can do it if someone would take leadership and organize. 

Yeah well that’s real easy for you to say being a SMUt fan and all.  You guys were all born rich and so yeah NIL doesn’t move the needle that much on the Hilltop.  UNT is more of a working man’s college and we don’t have as much expendable income as you guys do.

[MeanGreenHoops]

17 hours ago, Pseudo Nym said:

I made this point several months ago in a thread about the NIL being the end, that we can't keep up, regardless of what we try to do.

To be fair, some people said, save it for another day (it wasn't too long after the end of the football season) and the mood was pretty glib to say the least so I did.

Now that everyone seems to be caught up, what does the future for UNT Football with the NIL look like?

First of all, the NIL is bolstered by State and Federal Laws, it aint going anywhere, no matter what or who wants to vote otherwise in college athletics (there's a reason why the NCAA never wanted to go down this road and some people still can't seem to make this connection, maybe the politicians looking for votes should've gone elsewhere but clearly not enough people understand this so  they got their votes and college athletics got the NIL)

Second, it might be surprising but a Rec & Leisure Studies undergraduate class at UNT predicted this entirely in 2009/10 and the point was made that UNT would be better off investing in basketball at the time and becoming a basketball school - take that debate anyway you want, hindsight is 20/20 but apply it to today and how the NIL is and will continue to shape the college recruiting landscape, paying for 12 players is a lot more palpable than paying for football players.

Finally, how much are we willing to waste to stay DI?  I'm not happy about it but if you have any common sense and can see, even a few years into the future, the gambit is over, the Power 5 and "Haves" have won, it's a futile and naive effort to believe UNT can compete in the new "NIL-NCAA" Era (PERIOD).

Pro leagues have salary caps for a reason: parity and revenue sharing saved the NFL and is the benchmark for the most succesful pro leagues in the world = THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN WITH THE NIL/NCAA ERA - THE LAW MAKES THAT IMPOSSIBLE (AND TO TRY WOULD BE ILLEGAL - think here, if I need to spell it out, I will but don't distract from the point)

What's the point?

IT'S TIME TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER BY WAY OF AN ACTUAL STUDY WHICH CAN BE ONE IN-HOUSE BY UNT GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS OF TRANSITIONING TO DII SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND THE COST OF DOING SO VERSUS NOT DOING SO - ALL FACTORS TO BE INCLUDED.

I'm talking about a business decision that is the best decision for the University moving forward. 

I'm talking about being a realist vs. idealist.

I'm talking about being responsible.

I'm talking about forward thinking.

I'm talking about reading the writing on the wall.

Do I want this? NO 

Is it avoidable? YES - By someone or some group coming up with MILLIONS of dollars every year in NIL money for UNT Student Athletes.

Is that possible? NO - that's the bottom line and Stone Cold doesn't need to say so, it's sooo obvious!

So what are we going to do?  Probably the most irresponsible thing:

Bury our heads in the sand, avoid the inevitable, keep paying out fat salaries and burning money to try and keep (what exactly, I'm not sure) alive, and then in a few years and millions of dollars wasted, say, "well, we tried."

GO D2 AND DOMINATE EARLY FOR A BETTER FUTURE!

BS - You don't need a crystal ball for this one, just a delusional perspective.

[GMG_Dallas]

Personally I'm over college football. NIL or not, there was no hope with a 4-team playoff. I'll watch UNT as a fan but that's it. I don't watch 99% of the other games unless I'm incredibly bored.

I think we could develop a good NIL program by switching the focus to basketball. There's just less players to pay. I think you can convince more fans to donate if being successful seems more achievable which it is in basketball. Even if Musk made UNT football his baby, we're still in the G5 and getting a playoff spot is nearly impossible G5, especially now that they threw a bone at Cincinnati and they lost. We don't get second chances easily unlike the P5 and even then most P5s will never make the 4-team playoff.

[Mike Jackson]

On 5/5/2022 at 5:18 PM, GrandGreen said:

I think the rule change that is most devastating to NT and other lower tier programs is the new transfer regulations which encourage schools to raid rosters of other teams.   

Why waste time and effort on developing high school players, when you can sign proven college players. 

This is the truth.  NIL money comes from fans of the programs and not the schools directly.  It is has never been about bringing the Longhorns, Sooners, or Aggies to Denton.  If that is what a fan was hoping for you are about generation late.  It was possible when we were with Boise State in the Big West.  They made all the right moves since that time and we didn’t.  The 2000 Dickey led program should have been moving into a new stadium and indoor practice facility.  Apogee was 11 years too late if not more and the indoor practice facility was at least 20 years too late.  Dickey or his successor  could have been our Gary Patterson with those resources in place.
 

No one knows what will exactly happen.  The notion of going D2 it’s kind of silly.  You think attendance is bad now, what is it look like a D2?  I grew up in this area and partially because I never saw UNT athletically playing against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston and etc, I never thought of UNT being on par with them academically.  Only after going off to the military and thoroughly researching just because this is home did I realize UNT could fit my needs just as well as those other schools.   And to be clear NIL didn’t deal the death blow to program if it is to die.  It was a long list of missteps going all the way back to dropping down to FCS and sucking at that level also.  It was also on the academic student life side fostering a commuter school culture during that time.  Denton for the longest time seemed virtually hostile to the idea of being a college town.  Mix that all together and you have a recipe for alumni apathy and disconnection with school.  I am good friends with older Alumni that I have known my whole life and have NEVER seen them in UNT gear (sport focused or otherwise). 
 

So in conclusion I don’t know what you were trying to achieve but dropping down to D2.   Hell let’s go full No Athletic scholarships for sports if you are all about saving money.