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3 hours ago, Coffee and TV said:

I still can't reason why anyone on the right or the left would give two shits what any of those birds have to say, like they're experts on literally anything other than blabbing to each other. 

I love the way you put that and I agree completely.

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1 hour ago, HoustonEagle said:

Sorry I meant to get back to this and forgot. My take:

The Keystone phase 4 was only 8% completed.  It was years away from being ready to transport crude.  Phases 1-3 have been online for many years.  

Biden tried to halt new permitting on federal lands until an environment and economic study was done.  This might be a feather in the cap of your argument except for the fact that it was overturned in court AND the BLM study has already been published now. It's main takeaway is that we don't charge enough for BLM leases.  Which is true.  https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-report-finds-significant-shortcomings-oil-and-gas-leasing-programs

Biden reversed Trump's executive order to open up ANWR.  Well folks I have news for you.  ANWR is just political theatre.  It makes for great conversation on Fox News and CNN but companies don't want to be there.  It's a very expensive place to drill.  There is no takeaway capacity to get oil to the markets.  ANWR is a long ways away from being an economic resource of crude oil for the US.  Thus the last I checked no major oil company acquired any of the issued leases. 

Financing has been more difficult in the oil patch. This is not a Biden or Trump thing as it has been a problem for years now.  It's driven primarily by two forces.  The economics of new production (not an issue at all today) and the focus on ESG by both lenders and commercial entities.  I am not sure if you have noticed but major companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and on and on and on have created mandates to source X percent green energy by Y date.  Lenders have also created mandates to how much of their total portfolio will go towards dirty vs clean projects.  Thus why you see a new utility scale solar project generating a 6% return having an easier time with financing than a new shale project generating 30+% returns.  It is was it is but for the sake of this conversation, it's nothing new.  

Lastly, you mentioned that we were near energy independence and now we are not.  I don't really even know where this comes from.  Absolutely  nothing has meaningfully changed in the previous year as to US imports and exports of crude. Conversely, you may have even see articles mentioning that the Biden administration issued 34% more leases than Trump did his first year.  Totally meaningless.  The price of crude drives this not whichever President is in office.  Mark my words in two years we will be less dependent on imports. This will be because of increased drilling at high prices and demand destruction.  Biden will take a victory lap and talk about how his administration cut our foreign dependence on oil.  It will be total theater just like everything that Trump did on energy.   After all. we are first and foremost a free market society.  

As to your friends.  I have been in the energy patch for 25 years. I promise you there are not many Democrats.  

This concludes my Ted Talk.  Shoot all the holes in it you want just do it with a smile because life is too short. Even shorter if we get nuked!

 

 

 

Appreciate you comments. We can agree to disagree; You see changes to regulations and their impact one way while others disagree. We were non-dependent and now we are and are now asking Iran and Venezuela for help. I understand your dislike of Trump and you would rather do almost anything than give him credit. While understanding he cannot control everything, my frustration with Biden is that he keeps saying he will do all he can to reduce the impact and that is not true.  This situation is not good regardless why and those in the middle and lower ends will pay a bigger price (in relative terms) . End of the day were all screwed as long as these are the places we turn to for help.

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3 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Appreciate you comments. We can agree to disagree; You see changes to regulations and their impact one way while others disagree. We were non-dependent and now we are and are now asking Iran and Venezuela for help. I understand your dislike of Trump and you would rather do almost anything than give him credit. While understanding he cannot control everything, my frustration with Biden is that he keeps saying he will do all he can to reduce the impact and that is not true.  This situation is not good regardless why and those in the middle and lower ends will pay a bigger price (in relative terms) . End of the day were all screwed as long as these are the places we turn to for help.

Cliff Notes version: L

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in my past career I did work at the national labs and talked to experts in the solar and wind turbine areas.   They said we are not at level we can power ourselves with those sources.   They said we are years away if not decades away from it and it will take combination of green and fossil fuels or nuclear energy to meet our needs.  Technology is not here yet but they are working on it.

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21 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Appreciate you comments. We can agree to disagree; You see changes to regulations and their impact one way while others disagree. We were non-dependent and now we are and are now asking Iran and Venezuela for help. I understand your dislike of Trump and you would rather do almost anything than give him credit. While understanding he cannot control everything, my frustration with Biden is that he keeps saying he will do all he can to reduce the impact and that is not true.  This situation is not good regardless why and those in the middle and lower ends will pay a bigger price (in relative terms) . End of the day were all screwed as long as these are the places we turn to for help.

Judging by his name I’d assume he knows way more about O&G than you. 

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2 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

I’m sure you know what he was getting at though.

With all due respect - do not assume. My family has been in the oil and gas industry 60+ years. My job for the past 10+ years requires me to follow the diesel fuel industry. Different people get different views. It's up to each of us to study the situation and make our own decisions. However, when there is an almost immediate correlation to changes in an industry and an election and you choose not to acknowledge the impact, I will agree to disagree. 

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23 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

With all due respect - do not assume. My family has been in the oil and gas industry 60+ years. My job for the past 10+ years requires me to follow the diesel fuel industry. Different people get different views. It's up to each of us to study the situation and make our own decisions. However, when there is an almost immediate correlation to changes in an industry and an election and you choose not to acknowledge the impact, I will agree to disagree. 

I didn’t assume someone else knows more, I assumed you would know what he was alluding to.

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On 3/8/2022 at 11:14 AM, HoustonEagle said:

Sorry I meant to get back to this and forgot. My take:

The Keystone phase 4 was only 8% completed.  It was years away from being ready to transport crude.  Phases 1-3 have been online for many years.  

Biden tried to halt new permitting on federal lands until an environment and economic study was done.  This might be a feather in the cap of your argument except for the fact that it was overturned in court AND the BLM study has already been published now. It's main takeaway is that we don't charge enough for BLM leases.  Which is true.  https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-report-finds-significant-shortcomings-oil-and-gas-leasing-programs

Biden reversed Trump's executive order to open up ANWR.  Well folks I have news for you.  ANWR is just political theatre.  It makes for great conversation on Fox News and CNN but companies don't want to be there.  It's a very expensive place to drill.  There is no takeaway capacity to get oil to the markets.  ANWR is a long ways away from being an economic resource of crude oil for the US.  Thus the last I checked no major oil company acquired any of the issued leases. 

Financing has been more difficult in the oil patch. This is not a Biden or Trump thing as it has been a problem for years now.  It's driven primarily by two forces.  The economics of new production (not an issue at all today) and the focus on ESG by both lenders and commercial entities.  I am not sure if you have noticed but major companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and on and on and on have created mandates to source X percent green energy by Y date.  Lenders have also created mandates to how much of their total portfolio will go towards dirty vs clean projects.  Thus why you see a new utility scale solar project generating a 6% return having an easier time with financing than a new shale project generating 30+% returns.  It is was it is but for the sake of this conversation, it's nothing new.  

Lastly, you mentioned that we were near energy independence and now we are not.  I don't really even know where this comes from.  Absolutely  nothing has meaningfully changed in the previous year as to US imports and exports of crude. Conversely, you may have even see articles mentioning that the Biden administration issued 34% more leases than Trump did his first year.  Totally meaningless.  The price of crude drives this not whichever President is in office.  Mark my words in two years we will be less dependent on imports. This will be because of increased drilling at high prices and demand destruction.  Biden will take a victory lap and talk about how his administration cut our foreign dependence on oil.  It will be total theater just like everything that Trump did on energy.   After all. we are first and foremost a free market society.  

As to your friends.  I have been in the energy patch for 25 years. I promise you there are not many Democrats.  

This concludes my Ted Talk.  Shoot all the holes in it you want just do it with a smile because life is too short. Even shorter if we get nuked!

 

 

 

Also work exclusively in the oil & gas sector (have been for past 15 years or so) and this pretty much sums up reality. There is currently a multi-year (decade+) supply of oil & gas leases on both private and public lands that are available to be drilled, but aren't going to be even with these higher prices. Analysts and stock followers are pushing the large cap E&P companies to return capital to shareholder instead of ramping up capex spend. This has been the first up cycle I've experienced where there has not been a rush to the drill bit with an uptick in prices and it has nothing to do with who is President.

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Oil output during 2020/2021 went down primarily due to slowing demand and reduce interest in funding new projects from lenders.  As the Fed Reserve continued to pump stimulus into the economy, along with multiple rounds of direct transfer checks from both Trump and Biden administrations the economy became overheated.  Add to that a lot of people going back to work and back to office you suddenly have pre-pandemic type demand for energy chasing reduced supply.  Voila, energy prices spiking. And it's not just energy, but everything. 

You see the stories about challenges in supply chains.  Imagine the flow of goods through the pipeline in a similar way that oil flows through a pipeline.  Just because you suddenly want to push a lot through the pipe does not mean you can.

If you want to blame someone, IMO it would be more correct in blaming Jerome Powell for continuing to stimulate the economy well past the time he should have been pulling back. The Federal Reserve's job mandate is to maintain price stability and achieve maximum employment.  Currently, they are failing badly on price stability.

The role that both Trump and Biden played was first nominating Powell (Trump) and then re-nominating Powell (Biden).  Powell has failed miserably at his job while he and his buddies at the Fed have profited handsomely from insider trading.

Arguing over the impact of Keystone XL phase construction, permits on federal lands or wildlife refuges, etc. are just sound bites for politicians, not the true root cause.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I am betting that all of you that are blaming Putin are also pretty bad at chess. Putin is nothing but a pawn in this game.

China has well over a billion people. China does not have enough wheat to sustain it's population. The United States and Ukraine are the worlds largest producers of wheat. China has full intentions of retaking Taiwan during the weak Biden administration. If China were to invade Taiwan they would be immediately cut off from US wheat and Ukraine wheat.

China's only option if they want to take Taiwan is to first ally with Russia to secure the Ukrainian wheat fields. That is exactly what has transpired. That is why China has agreed to buy 100% of Russia's oil. 

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On 3/8/2022 at 11:14 AM, HoustonEagle said:

 

Financing has been more difficult in the oil patch. This is not a Biden or Trump thing as it has been a problem for years now.  It's driven primarily by two forces.  The economics of new production (not an issue at all today) and the focus on ESG by both lenders and commercial entities………..Thus why you see a new utility scale solar project generating a 6% return having an easier time with financing than a new shale project generating 30+% returns.  It is was it is but for the sake of this conversation, it's nothing new.  

 


Big picture: Our economic health and investment is now dependent on 2+2 = pineapple.

ESG: If you want money, you will have to make sure you live up to the moral standards and whims of whoever is in charge. 

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On 3/18/2022 at 10:37 PM, ADLER said:

I am betting that all of you that are blaming Putin are also pretty bad at chess. Putin is nothing but a pawn in this game.

China has well over a billion people. China does not have enough wheat to sustain it's population. The United States and Ukraine are the worlds largest producers of wheat. China has full intentions of retaking Taiwan during the weak Biden administration. If China were to invade Taiwan they would be immediately cut off from US wheat and Ukraine wheat.

China's only option if they want to take Taiwan is to first ally with Russia to secure the Ukrainian wheat fields. That is exactly what has transpired. That is why China has agreed to buy 100% of Russia's oil. 

Maybe so but nothing you said exempts Putin from blame nor makes his decision to invade a non-threatening soverign nation somehow palatable.

As an aside. I would be willing to bet my life savings that Putin and Trump had an agreement that Russia would not go into Ukraine until after he won a second term.  Going in before would almost assuredly mean Trump would lose the election.  Still there is no way to prove that so it's just conjecture on my part.  

Edited by HoustonEagle
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3 hours ago, HoustonEagle said:

Maybe so but nothing you said exempts Putin from blame nor makes his decision to invade a non-threatening soverign nation somehow palatable.

As an aside. I would be willing to bet my life savings that Putin and Trump had an agreement that Russia would not go into Ukraine until after he won a second term.  Going in before would almost assuredly mean Trump would lose the election.  Still there is no way to prove that so it's just conjecture on my part.  

There's no way Putin is exempted. I believe that Putin has signed his own death decree at the hands of his own people.

 

Edited by ADLER
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On 3/22/2022 at 8:49 AM, HoustonEagle said:

Maybe so but nothing you said exempts Putin from blame nor makes his decision to invade a non-threatening soverign nation somehow palatable.

As an aside. I would be willing to bet my life savings that Putin and Trump had an agreement that Russia would not go into Ukraine until after he won a second term.  Going in before would almost assuredly mean Trump would lose the election.  Still there is no way to prove that so it's just conjecture on my part.  

Another 'Trump was involved". Bottom line invasions happened under Obama and now Biden. Yours is a guess, this is fact.

Edited by El Paso Eagle
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