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Free Throw % HAS To Improve Soon


Talon90
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If we had shot the same FT % as UAB in that game, it would only make the difference of 2.2 points.  I think the reason we lost is our defense wasn’t as good in that game.  In most of the games we lost, Buffalo, Kansas, UAB, Miami - we have up 69 points or more.  We aren’t good enough offensively to win those kind of scoring games against good teams.  We need to keep teams to low 60’s or lower to have a good chance to win.

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Is there a link between tough minutes defending the way we do and legs/energy to make these late?

I know it’s hard for fans to watch missed FTs and have been guilty of adding lost points back in during almost any close game at any level, but was thinking maybe some of this is a trade off for the rest of what the team does. Is there an easy way to break down FT percentage by half or even 10 minute marks? 

Sure would be nice to shoot over 70% in tournaments, though.

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1 minute ago, Quoner said:

Is there a link between tough minutes defending the way we do and legs/energy to make these late?

I know it’s hard for fans to watch missed FTs and have been guilty of adding lost points back in during almost any close game at any level, but was thinking maybe some of this is a trade off for the rest of what the team does. Is there an easy way to break down FT percentage by half or even 10 minute marks? 

Sure would be nice to shoot over 70% in tournaments, though.

It wasn’t an issue last year as the team shot 73%.

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3 minutes ago, UNT Family Man said:

It wasn’t an issue last year as the team shot 73%.

We also had some different players and current guys had different roles and we weren’t second in the nation by a finger nail in defense, so… K. 

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1 minute ago, Quoner said:

We also had some different players and current guys had different roles and we weren’t second in the nation by a finger nail in defense, so… K. 

So. . . McBride in the same role (wing player, spot up shooter, not our primary defensive guy) and he has dropped 18.2%??? Please explain. 
 

I think I understand your point with TB3. More of the offense is running through him (only significant change), plays a significant defensive role (huge on help defense and rim protection) but JJ draws the best player from the 1-3 (most teams have a 3 guard system). 

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28 minutes ago, UNT Family Man said:

So. . . McBride in the same role (wing player, spot up shooter, not our primary defensive guy) and he has dropped 18.2%??? Please explain. 
 

I think I understand your point with TB3. More of the offense is running through him (only significant change), plays a significant defensive role (huge on help defense and rim protection) but JJ draws the best player from the 1-3 (most teams have a 3 guard system). 

He slipped on a loose banana peel in a cruel but admittedly hilarious summer camp gym demo mishap and has been unable to cradle a basketball the same since when going through his FT routine. People are showing him videos constantly and they flew in a specialist, but he continually finds himself unable to move on and let go. 
 

Or there’s natural variance and his role’s expanded with an increase of more than 8 minutes per game from last season, but not sure why we’re arguing over this. 
 

EDIT: This is a theory that looking at the breakdown of team percentage by time (and maybe a few players) could support or disprove. I don’t think I’ve found some magic explanation but been trying to think about what else might cause this beyond typing that they should shoot FTs better and wishing real hard.

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9 minutes ago, Quoner said:

 Or there’s natural variance and his role’s expanded with an increase of more than 8 minutes per game from last season, but not sure why we’re arguing over this. 

Mcbride averaged 1.3 free throw attempts per game last year. This year, he's up to 1.4 attempts per game. That 8 minute increase has not led to a drastic increase in attempts. Natural variance, sure, but down nearly 20% in completion percentage is not that. If the teams want find success in March, bringing that up a bit is critical. Free throw percentage and Ousmane hitting more of his shots around the basket. He misses too many of those too. Needs to go the rim stronger.

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22 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Mcbride averaged 1.3 free throw attempts per game last year. This year, he's up to 1.4 attempts per game. That 8 minute increase has not led to a drastic increase in attempts. Natural variance, sure, but down nearly 20% in completion percentage is not that. If the teams want find success in March, bringing that up a bit is critical. Free throw percentage and Ousmane hitting more of his shots around the basket. He misses too many of those too. Needs to go the rim stronger.

The proposed idea is when your legs are tired from playing more basketball at a high level, it is harder to shoot FTs. The attempt numbers don’t impact that.

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53 minutes ago, Quoner said:

The proposed idea is when your legs are tired from playing more basketball at a high level, it is harder to shoot FTs. The attempt numbers don’t impact that.

Got it. Reading while shopping. I'm not sure I can be sold on a 20% drop being attributed to an 8 minute increase in playing time. That's a huge drop. The reason I brought up FTAs is the thought that he just wasn't shooting many free throws for last year to be a good sample size and the attempts might have gone up this year contributing to the lower percentage. 

Frankly, I'm not even sure he's shot enough free throws in his career to get a good idea of what he is at the line. 68 FTs in 2 seasons, 31 came this year. By comparison, the NCAA leader for this season has 189 attempts.

Going back to the fatigue factor, looked at his game logs and there's nothing to suggest more minutes led to a lower percentage. He shot:

- 100% in a 40 minute game (both came with 24 seconds left to go in the game after playing the whole game),

- 75% in a 33 minute game (2 with about 8 minutes left in the game, and both consecutive makes with about 2 minutes)

- 25% in a 35 minute game (both consecutive losses came with 2 minutes left in the game. The 1/2 was in the first half),

-50% in a 25 minute game (both shot about 8 minutes into the game),

- 66.7% in 29 minutes, 3/4 in the first half, 1/2 in the second half. 

Just not sure there's enough to say it's fatigue...

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19 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Got it. Reading while shopping. I'm not sure I can be sold on a 20% drop being attributed to an 8 minute increase in playing time. That's a huge drop. The reason I brought up FTAs is the thought that he just wasn't shooting many free throws for last year to be a good sample size and the attempts might have gone up this year contributing to the lower percentage. 

Frankly, I'm not even sure he's shot enough free throws in his career to get a good idea of what he is at the line. 68 FTs in 2 seasons, 31 came this year. By comparison, the NCAA leader for this season has 189 attempts.

Going back to the fatigue factor, looked at his game logs and there's nothing to suggest more minutes led to a lower percentage. He shot:

- 100% in a 40 minute game (both came with 24 seconds left to go in the game after playing the whole game),

- 75% in a 33 minute game (2 with about 8 minutes left in the game, and both consecutive makes with about 2 minutes)

- 25% in a 35 minute game (both consecutive losses came with 2 minutes left in the game. The 1/2 was in the first half),

-50% in a 25 minute game (both shot about 8 minutes into the game),

- 66.7% in 29 minutes, 3/4 in the first half, 1/2 in the second half. 

Just not sure there's enough to say it's fatigue...

Thanks - and appreciate you diving in on him. I think for what I'm getting at, I need to look at game logs by half and see if there is any difference between the team numbers. I'd also hate for this to come across like I am saying folks aren't in shape, either. We play an extremely active, high level of defense that has tired me out just watching, so it really was a curiosity followed by a question - are 3-4 made FTs a worthwhile tradeoff for that level of defensive intensity? If I'm even right, my answer is yes, but until I can sit and look or some kind soul checks for me - even if it is to totally own my dumb idea - I just don't know. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Quoner said:

 - are 3-4 made FTs a worthwhile tradeoff for that level of defensive intensity? If I'm even right, my answer is yes, but until I can sit and look or some kind soul checks for me - even if it is to totally own my dumb idea - I just don't know. 

 

Yeah I think I agree with you that it is a worth while tradeoff BECAUSE we just don't shoot many free throws to begin with. Looking at game logs, free throws just didn't impact losses enough IMO.

- Buffalo: 3 point loss, 18/25 FTs 72%. To win, we would have to have shot 22/25 88%. This is a stretch for even the best pro teams.

- Kansas: 9/11, lost by 12. Not enough FTs to make a difference.

- Miami: 4/8, lost by 6. Not enough FTs to make a difference.

- UAB: 7/13, lost by 6. Would have to have shot 100% to be tied at the end of regulation which is unreasonable for any team at any level.

I still think it needs to be cleaned up before March when you're playing single elimination games because every point matters but there's other areas that might be priority such as finishing around the rim. I think Ousmane missed 4 or 5 shots in the paint yesterday. To me that's much more critical than missing 4 free throws in a game. He's a good player, just needs to go up stronger at the rim. That alone should lead to forcing more fouls which helps us put pressure on offense while also getting more attempts at the charity stripe. Win-win.

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Free throw shooting does not have improve, NT is doing fine with sub-par performances at the line

Sure, if free throw, 3 point or 2 point shooting improves, NT is a better team; but NT's strength is defense.

With 4 of the the basically 7 man rotation shooting free throws under .600, it is definitely a number that should be and can be improved.   Frankly, I don't think ether Bell or Osmane are good percentage shooters at any distance.  Bell is the best player on the team, and Osmane is becoming a force.   Bell shoots more fts than anyone on the team and Osmane is third.

I do believe fatigue is a factor in the poor shooting.   It also could be that Mac just does not emphasize it as much as defense and field goal shooting. 

As far as the UAB game that was lost primarily because they shot 50% from the 3 and out rebounded NT by 10.  They only were 3 points better from the line. 

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Lots of good analysis on this topic. My concerns are based on our style of play. We are amazing on the defensive end, slow the game, and minimize possessions but it leads to minor flaws being more exacerbated.  I wish Osmane would get an angry hair and try to just dunk more of these bunny misses (also leading to more attempts at the line and foul trouble for them) and free throws. When you only average 66 per game and you have 2 of your 7 man rotation shooting so poorly— those 1-4 extra points a game could be the difference. 

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1 hour ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

Come tourney time, if we are in a dogfight and under 2 minutes, i would have Hamir Wright in the game over Abu or Scott due to his FT shooting.  Just my .02 cents

Yes! I would like to see him starting to get 6-8 mins a game like Osmane did last year. That way he is ready come tournament time.

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1 hour ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

Come tourney time, if we are in a dogfight and under 2 minutes, i would have Hamir Wright in the game over Abu or Scott due to his FT shooting.  Just my .02 cents

At least have him mentor both of them on how to shoot a free throw lol. Also he has such a soft touch in the post. 

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5 hours ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

Come tourney time, if we are in a dogfight and under 2 minutes, i would have Hamir Wright in the game over Abu or Scott due to his FT shooting.  Just my .02 cents

You're joking right? pull two of your best rebounds for FT shooting? 

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Well first of all, Mac would never do that. He puts all of his trust in those guys, and they can really deliver when needed. Example is the championship game against Western. Bell was shooting pretty bad, just couldn’t get anything to fall, but Mac told him to keep shooting because he trusts him. And then he hit a massive shot in OT.

Second, that’s terrible logic in big games. Bell and Scott have won us games by rebounding like La Tech and UTEP and Drake. If those guys were out of the game for Wright, we would lose more games than we have now.

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23 hours ago, Quoner said:

Thanks - and appreciate you diving in on him. I think for what I'm getting at, I need to look at game logs by half and see if there is any difference between the team numbers. I'd also hate for this to come across like I am saying folks aren't in shape, either. We play an extremely active, high level of defense that has tired me out just watching, so it really was a curiosity followed by a question - are 3-4 made FTs a worthwhile tradeoff for that level of defensive intensity? If I'm even right, my answer is yes, but until I can sit and look or some kind soul checks for me - even if it is to totally own my dumb idea - I just don't know. 

 

No data, but free throw shooting is a combination of focus and technique. I'd think both suffer somewhat when tired.

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1 hour ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Well first of all, Mac would never do that. He puts all of his trust in those guys, and they can really deliver when needed. Example is the championship game against Western. Bell was shooting pretty bad, just couldn’t get anything to fall, but Mac told him to keep shooting because he trusts him. And then he hit a massive shot in OT.

Second, that’s terrible logic in big games. Bell and Scott have won us games by rebounding like La Tech and UTEP and Drake. If those guys were out of the game for Wright, we would lose more games than we have now.

Remember Michael Miller during the CBI run?  This isn't FT shooting related, but does speak to McCasland's trust and ability to get the most from his players.  He had Miller switch from left-handed to right-handed shooting prior to our opening CBI game and Miller responded with 19 points and was 4 or 5 from beyond the arc.  That was one of the craziest things I have ever seen.

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FTs are so weird.  A player can fly through the air or fall backwards during a turn-around jumper 20 feet from the hoop with someone in their face and they hit nothing but net.  Have them stand still on a line 15 feet away and it's like they can't hit the ocean from a boat.  When struggling, sometimes you just need a slightly different perspective...stand a little off center or a few inches behind the time.  Anything to break the bad mojo. 

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