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EagleD

By EagleD
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greenminer Grand Master

greenminer

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We still need to win out and, at worst, lose in the CUSA title match.  It would be 50/50 at that point.  I gather these media mouths are chomping at the bit to leave extra CUSA teams out. 

If we DO win out and win the tournament, I'm not sure any other CUSA teams are considered.  Haven't really thought about that.

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Andrew Grand Master

Andrew

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, EagleD said:

Given last years history. If we don’t win the CUSA tournament, what would it take (can it happen) to get an at large bid?

We win every game except maybe La Tech at home. Cause the split with them and UAB. 23-5 heading into the tournament then 26-6 assuming we lose to UAB. We may have a shot at the 12 seed play in game. Hoping the wins/losses are correct there. 

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Mean Green Matt Veteran

Mean Green Matt

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Magic95Fan said:

UAB taking a Quad 4 loss tonight hurt pretty bad. They are probably going to get punished in the computers which won't do us any favors. We need CUSA to be perceived as having a few good teams at the top for us to get an At-large.

Yep. We needed to have NT and UAB basically run the table (or as close as possible with head to head). The UAB loss to Marshall hurts us both. 

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BillySee58 Grand Master

BillySee58

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Something I hope people realize is how good this team is regardless of how far they advance in March. The chances of making it to the round of 32 are extremely slim. 

Once you make it to the round of 64, as a 12 or 13 seed you have about a 25% chance of winning that game. Between this La Tech team, this UAB team, and the rest of the CUSA field you also have say a 30% chance of winning the CUSA tournament. Our odds of both happening are probably around 10%.

Failing to get back to the round of 32 does not mean we didn’t take a step forward this season. Let’s not forget last year’s team was just 13-9 at the end of the regular season. We are currently 15-4. Enjoy the team because they are for real.

Edited by BillySee58
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GMG_Dallas Grand Master

GMG_Dallas

Posted
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30 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

this La Tech team, 

Sooo my thoughts are this... La Tech is the only team with a chance of an at large bid but they'd probably have to make a run in the conference tourney. I say this because that guy Lofton Jr is an NBA prospect and I wonder if he wouldn't boost them into an at-large bid because of the hype. Thoughts?

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outoftown Veteran

outoftown

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Posted
3 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Sooo my thoughts are this... La Tech is the only team with a chance of an at large bid but they'd probably have to make a run in the conference tourney. I say this because that guy Lofton Jr is an NBA prospect and I wonder if he wouldn't boost them into an at-large bid because of the hype. Thoughts?

Disagree. The comitte cares only a very slightly for star power. LaTechs other numbers are however far behind UAB and NT, particularly the NET number, and that one matters much more. Also your hypothesis assumes those folks watch enough C-USA to have a strong opinion on Lofton. if UAB and NT do not get in, there is no way LaTech does.

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GMG_Dallas Grand Master

GMG_Dallas

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2 hours ago, outoftown said:

Disagree. The comitte cares only a very slightly for star power. LaTechs other numbers are however far behind UAB and NT, particularly the NET number, and that one matters much more. Also your hypothesis assumes those folks watch enough C-USA to have a strong opinion on Lofton. if UAB and NT do not get in, there is no way LaTech does.

My assumption that they know of Lofton is based on him being team USA's leading scorer in the most recent FIBA U-19 world cup and leading team USA to gold. The basketball world knows who he is. Bleacher Report has him in the under the radar draft prospects for 2022.

If you're saying NET rankings and other factors are more important then I'll take your word. I'm not too familiar with the at-large process and what they look for.

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TIgreen01 Mentor

TIgreen01

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That Buffalo loss stings, and Wichita St keeps losing…barely above .500.  Drake is doing well, but that is really our only quality win outside the conference.  A close loss to Miami is still a loss.  Our OOC schedule looks like a really solid mix of high major and traditional mid-major powers.  Unfortunately the mid-majors are almost all in a down year compared to their history.  So we’re going to need to win out, imo.

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