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My thoughts on Realignment!


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The college football landscape is changing by the minute. We have seen this happen before. Like I have said before on here and on the podcast North Texas is in a much better place this time around than it is in years past. With that said, there is still a lot going against Mean Green this time around as well. Having no baseball doesn't help. One bowl win in last ten years doesn't help either. SMU potentially blocking our move to the American doesn't help. But it is not all doom and gloom. UNT is in a large market, facilities that are tops in G5, budget that is in line with some of the bottom of P5. We are also really successful in virtually every sport besides baseball and football at the moment.  But I do trust UNT leadership more this go around than in years past.

1st question " Who does the American get to replace Houston?"

As much as I hate to say it, I think it will be Rice or UTSA. I know UTSA is new and facilities are just on the rise. But I find it hard for American to pass on locking down the south Texas market. San Antonio is a very large market.  I know budget is low at the moment. But it has not affected schools like Tulsa being in the American to this point in time. Another option is Rice. Just due to the history from the Southwest conference days not to mention the academics.  They seem to be headed in the right direction.

2nd Question " How do they replace Cincinnati and UCF?"

I have heard Boise. But geographically it just doesn't make sense to me. To replace UCF do they add FAU? App State? UAB? Marshall? I believe they all could be possibilities. All of these schools have had success. You might ask why not La Tech? Well, I think Tulane does the same thing to them SMU does to us.  It’s repetitive.  And Tulane wants to keep the Louisiana recruiting market to themselves. There is 330 Miles between the schools but I believe Ruston would be not be considered a big enough market for the "P6" School.

3rd Question What I would like to see happen

I hope that the rest of the American conference realizes the "sleeping giant" in Denton has to many things going the right way that they tell the little private school who is so adamant about keeping them out to just shut the hell up. Do I see it happening? No, likely not - but it would be nice. What I would like to see is CUSA and Sun Belt settle their differences and make appropriate pairings. They are really the only to G5 conference that truly overlap most of their geography. Break it into an east and west and cut down on travel costs. With the 3 big names leaving the American it could be argued that conference isn't near as sexy as it once was. Perhaps the Sun Belt and CUSA could hang on to their big guns a hybrid model that could eventually be seen as the true Power 6 conference. My proposed divisions would be as follows with the assumption that Rice and UAB are the teams that exit CUSA for the AAC:

 

West

 

Arkansas State

 

North Texas

 

Texas State

 

UTSA

 

La Tech

 

Louisiana

 

Southern Miss

 

South Alabama

 

Troy

 

 

East

 

Middle Tennessee

 

FAU

 

FIU

 

Charlotte

 

Georgia State

 

Georgia Southern

 

Coastal Carolina

 

Western Kentucky

 

Marshall

 

 

 

 

 

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I think Rice (Academics) and UAB (success and financial commitment) will move to the AAC.  UTSA is hot right now and the "potential" of the San Antonio is tempting, but have they really shown a commitment to athletics that would excite you? I also wonder if the MWC teams would leave to join. I still thin Boise (and Memphis) could end up in the B12. I would like to see UNT and UTSA move to the MWC (sell them on access to the Texas markets)

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I could see Marshall, UAB, Rice ( baseball) and FAU gone.  100% commingle with Sun Belt, but do all possible to get into the MWC. They will loose Boise to big 12 and possibly CSU, and San Diego in the second round.

Edited by Wag Tag
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33 minutes ago, TheReal_jayD said:

The college football landscape is changing by the minute. We have seen this happen before. Like I have said before on here and on the podcast North Texas is in a much better place this time around than it is in years past. With that said, there is still a lot going against Mean Green this time around as well. Having no baseball doesn't help. One bowl win in last ten years doesn't help either. SMU potentially blocking our move to the American doesn't help. But it is not all doom and gloom. UNT is in a large market, facilities that are tops in G5, budget that is in line with some of the bottom of P5. We are also really successful in virtually every sport besides baseball and football at the moment.  But I do trust UNT leadership more this go around than in years past.

1st question " Who does the American get to replace Houston?"

As much as I hate to say it, I think it will be Rice or UTSA. I know UTSA is new and facilities are just on the rise. But I find it hard for American to pass on locking down the south Texas market. San Antonio is a very large market.  I know budget is low at the moment. But it has not affected schools like Tulsa being in the American to this point in time. Another option is Rice. Just due to the history from the Southwest conference days not to mention the academics.  They seem to be headed in the right direction.

2nd Question " How do they replace Cincinnati and UCF?"

I have heard Boise. But geographically it just doesn't make sense to me. To replace UCF do they add FAU? App State? UAB? Marshall? I believe they all could be possibilities. All of these schools have had success. You might ask why not La Tech? Well, I think Tulane does the same thing to them SMU does to us.  It’s repetitive.  And Tulane wants to keep the Louisiana recruiting market to themselves. There is 330 Miles between the schools but I believe Ruston would be not be considered a big enough market for the "P6" School.

3rd Question What I would like to see happen

I hope that the rest of the American conference realizes the "sleeping giant" in Denton has to many things going the right way that they tell the little private school who is so adamant about keeping them out to just shut the hell up. Do I see it happening? No, likely not - but it would be nice. What I would like to see is CUSA and Sun Belt settle their differences and make appropriate pairings. They are really the only to G5 conference that truly overlap most of their geography. Break it into an east and west and cut down on travel costs. With the 3 big names leaving the American it could be argued that conference isn't near as sexy as it once was. Perhaps the Sun Belt and CUSA could hang on to their big guns a hybrid model that could eventually be seen as the true Power 6 conference. My proposed divisions would be as follows with the assumption that Rice and UAB are the teams that exit CUSA for the AAC:

 

West

 

  • Arkansas State
  • North Texas
  • Texas State
  • UTSA
  • La Tech
  • Louisiana
  • Southern Miss
  • South Alabama
  • Troy

 

East

 

  • Middle Tennessee
  • FAU
  • FIU
  • Charlotte
  • Georgia State
  • Georgia Southern
  • Coastal Carolina
  • Western Kentucky
  • Marshall

 

 

@TheReal_jayDSo you are projecting UTEP and ULM would be left out?

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12 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

I could see Marshall, UAB, Rice ( baseball) and FAU gone.  100% commingle with Sun Belt, but do all possible to get into the MWC. They will loose Boise to big 12 and possibly CSU, and San Diego in the second round.

I wonder if the B12, if they go after San Diego if they would consider UNLV. You then add two major destination markets.

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I think Rice will be too tempting to pass up and Houston too valuable to lose for the AAC. I think UAB will be the other. There are better programs out there in coastal and Appy and Louisiana but the footprint doesn’t feel right.  UAB gives partner to USF and smu and rice reunite. 
 

After this realignment the AAC is not nearly as attractive as it was. MWC looks good until Boise gets called up. We could just bloom where planted invite Appy and Troy and call it a day. All those privates Tulane Tulsa smu rice do little for me in the excitement category. I prefer La Tech utsa southern miss throw in Louisiana and or Texas state. 
 

if Marshall doesn’t get called up I think you will see odu marshall and the Atlantic teams ramp up efforts to do their thing. We should be ready to do ours.

leave Judy in her little car.

GMG

 

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21 minutes ago, NM Green said:

I think Rice will be too tempting to pass up and Houston too valuable to lose for the AAC. I think UAB will be the other. There are better programs out there in coastal and Appy and Louisiana but the footprint doesn’t feel right.  UAB gives partner to USF and smu and rice reunite. 
 

After this realignment the AAC is not nearly as attractive as it was. MWC looks good until Boise gets called up. We could just bloom where planted invite Appy and Troy and call it a day. All those privates Tulane Tulsa smu rice do little for me in the excitement category. I prefer La Tech utsa southern miss throw in Louisiana and or Texas state. 
 

if Marshall doesn’t get called up I think you will see odu marshall and the Atlantic teams ramp up efforts to do their thing. We should be ready to do ours.

leave Judy in her little car.

GMG

 

In this case, location might be our enemy as far as adding Texas teams to the AAC. SMU is already in, and Rice and San Antonio provide "potential" access the large markets that would not be represented.

I wonder if Marshall and ODU might look to the MAC?

Edited by El Paso Eagle
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40 minutes ago, TheReal_jayD said:

I had to take two out to make the divisions even. Utep has flirted with MWC for years. And makes sense geographically. ULM is the closest to an FCS school in the group.

I'm not sure the reason why ULM and NMSU do not go to FCS. ULM financially makes no since staying FBS and NMSU is in no-mans land - seems they could benefit from the new WAC and still play OOC money games. UTEP and their fans would go wild if they received a MWC offer. I just don't know what they would bring to the table. 

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36 minutes ago, NM Green said:

I think Rice will be too tempting to pass up and Houston too valuable to lose for the AAC. I think UAB will be the other. There are better programs out there in coastal and Appy and Louisiana but the footprint doesn’t feel right.  UAB gives partner to USF and smu and rice reunite. 
 

After this realignment the AAC is not nearly as attractive as it was. MWC looks good until Boise gets called up. We could just bloom where planted invite Appy and Troy and call it a day. All those privates Tulane Tulsa smu rice do little for me in the excitement category. I prefer La Tech utsa southern miss throw in Louisiana and or Texas state. 
 

if Marshall doesn’t get called up I think you will see odu marshall and the Atlantic teams ramp up efforts to do their thing. We should be ready to do ours.

leave Judy in her little car.

GMG

 

I think it’s an interesting dilemma for AAC.

I’d expect Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane to be for Rice. I wonder though if there might be some of the state schools going nope we’re good, if we have to be in Texas, let’s go with UTSA to get a new area rather than taking second choice of Houston.

Trying to think like Aresco, I think there’d be some though to Air Force and Colorado State and  go after St Louis and Dayton. Ten works just fine in football for a G5 and you bolster hoops.

I’ve seen one report (SI maybe?) that said UAB, ODU, FIU,  FAU.  I think both of FIU and FAU seems improbable.

Thing with AAC is they have a lot of options but not many that you look at and say well they are obvious.

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I struggle seeing how UtSA is an attractive option at all? Are you saying that just because they are in San Antonio or because they had one single good year last year? Outside of the very very recent success they have done nothing. Rice has shown nothing. I just struggle seeing how those two are at all attractive when they are maybe fourth or fifth in their own market at best. 

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1.  No MWC team is going to look to join now anymore than, say, Colorado is interested in joining the Big XII after UT and OU left (not to say that the Buffs did in the first place).  You can't take the top programs from a conference and demand the same interest for inclusion. 

2.  Rice won't be at the top of anybody's list until they choose to actually compete.  Let us know when that happens. 

3.  Aresco has been smart enough to stay away from any stupid hybrid conference, basketball only additions outside of the one common-sense addition of WSU thus far - here's hoping that continues.  

4.  UTSA has a hot hand now but not sure about long-term stability.  We'll see.  

5.  We'd be smart to find large geographically proximate state schools with the long term potential to win in Football, ie. Louisiana, App State, FIU/FAU, etc. - the same thing we're losing. 

6. As with everything I'm sure ESPN will drive the bus, for good or for ill.  

Edited by SMUleopold
Grammer
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I’m really curious to see what happens with the MWC because their blowup will free up teams for us to ponder (Boise and Air Force gone): I.e. New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State. 

So odu marshall western breakaway and do their thing. The western teams do our thing and some mountain west players become available.
 

Sun belt could get cherry picked and leave cusa in tact which is bizarre and sad. But bloom where planted and keep our trajectory mojo flowing.

GMG
 

 

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49 minutes ago, Travis said:

I struggle seeing how UtSA is an attractive option at all? Are you saying that just because they are in San Antonio or because they had one single good year last year? Outside of the very very recent success they have done nothing. Rice has shown nothing. I just struggle seeing how those two are at all attractive when they are maybe fourth or fifth in their own market at best. 

I think the view from 30,000 feet is Rice is academically prestigious and in a big market and a school that Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane have generally wanted to align with. UTSA looks perfectly fine academically and they are in a large city with only an NBA team.

Remember CUSA took them, ODU, and Charlotte on basically nothing but market and potential when none of them had played a down of FBS football and Tulsa, ECU, and Tulane were all in the room when that vote was taken.

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55 minutes ago, Travis said:

They did. As well as the F_U’s and it now showed that we should have gone with the ASU’s and the like. Market is over rated. Especially when you don’t really have a corner on the market at all in your area. 

Networks and conferences just feel differently than we do about this. They love big TV markets to sell advertisers on.

I really think the Big XII will stay at 12 for now. I don’t see the MWC losing anyone, either. I fully expect the AAC to get UAB, Rice, and UTSA to replace the three teams poached by the Big XII. CUSA will get Texas State to replace UTSA, South Alabama to replace UAB, and don’t underestimate Judy getting Georgia State because they are a state school in Atlanta. Big markets are Judy’s favs…

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10 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

Networks and conferences just feel differently than we do about this. They love big TV markets to sell advertisers on.

I really think the Big XII will stay at 12 for now. I don’t see the MWC losing anyone, either. I fully expect the AAC to get UAB, Rice, and UTSA to replace the three teams poached by the Big XII. CUSA will get Texas State to replace UTSA, South Alabama to replace UAB, and don’t underestimate Judy getting Georgia State because they are a state school in Atlanta. Big markets are Judy’s favs…

Markets in 2021 only matter if you have a conference network that is on basic cable. Then you charge the cable companies more money per subscriber in the state. Last I saw BTN charges a cable company like 10 cents per subscriber in non-Big 10 states and $1.10 in Big Ten states. So if you live in Iowa your cable or satellite or IPTV provider with BTN is paying $1.10 per month for you to have BTN, cross the border into Missouri it drops to 10 cents.

Back 20 or so years ago, markets mattered because TV didn’t have great data collection capability. For a lot of programs they simply extrapolated known viewership based on market size. If you were selling the Raycom package network ads you’d say OK we know x percentage watches SWC games on ABC, so we will apply something similar because we believe that percentage will watch in DFW, San Antonio, Houston, Tyler, Little Rock, and Fayetteville/Fort Smith. Bigger market we will charge more for advertising.

Today an advertiser will laugh you out of the room. Much better data is available. They know typically this many people will watch a game. If you look at SEC’s first expansion, they did not invite markets. Arkansas and South Carolina are small markets. The schools drew viewers. In more recent times, Big Ten’s decision to add a 12th team sent them to Nebraska a state that still hasn’t hit 2 million in population.

Now it is becoming more important that you drive subscribers to online services. If people watch your games on a subscriber service, you are more important because that creates the concern you won’t renew if the team isn’t available.

Today so few games are sold regionally that markets are pretty much irrelevant, national numbers matter. It’s why BYU was making so much on TV as an independent. Arkansas and Utah are roughly the same population but BYU’s ability to sell nationally made them worth more as an independent than as a member of MWC or AAC.

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1 hour ago, greengal said:

Do you think maybe SMU will let us be in?

My 0.02:

I don't believe SMU thinks much of us.  We're not on their radar*.  I don't think they want us in the conference, but I don't think they are actively campaigning against us, either.

*like SMU isn't on TCU's radar, nor is Okie State on OU's radar.

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8 minutes ago, greenminer said:

My 0.02:

I don't believe SMU thinks much of us.  We're not on their radar*.  I don't think they want us in the conference, but I don't think they are actively campaigning against us, either.

*like SMU isn't on TCU's radar, nor is Okie State on OU's radar.

Agreed

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