DRC: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for North Texas in 2021

[Brett Vito]

 

[bstnsportsfan3]

Yeesh the crazy thing is both of those could happen and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Crazy how much rides on this season.

[Mean Green 93-98]

Hey Brett, why not add, "...and the Chinese invade, destroy most of the country, and make UNT a satellite campus of SMU"? 😄

[untjim1995]

We should be somewhere in the middle of this, unless injuries just pile up or the team quits on SL, which would make 2-10 very possible. I just don't see how a defense that was dead-ass last in the entire country can improve itself enough while playing an even harder schedule than we played last year. We will see improvement on defense, but I bet it will be later in the year that the improvement shows, as the players get more used to his scheme and, most importantly, the schedule lightens up some.

Again, we have two games that I fully expect to win or the season will be SL's last here--NW State and UTEP. After that, there are really 4 other opponents that I think we can beat (Rice, USM, FIU, Marshall). If we win 2 of those, that gets SL to 4 wins and I believe that this will be enough for him to get one last year to try and turn it all around. The other 6, SMU, Mizzou, Liberty, UAB, La Tech, and UTSA are all just way ahead of us right now.

That last name, UTSA, is the salt in the wound, as it was just two years ago that they were flailing with a coach who was dead man walking on the sideline, Frank Wilson, and we clobbered them at Apogee 42-3, They replace him with a guy who has all these connections with TX HS Coaches and in Year One has them zoom right by us. That's a most bitter pill to swallow--I realize we are their Super Bowl every year, but they have the momentum we got when we hired SL here and overtook them in their supposed year of prominence, 2017, that crushed their program afterwards until their terrible coach got fired. That this switched on us so fast is just unbelievable...and frankly, pathetic.

Edited August 20, 2021 by untjim1995

[MeanGreenTexan]

I think a realistic best case scenario for NT would be a 2013-like season. 
A rough start, but hitting their stride mid-season, and putting themselves in a position to win the West.  Then finally getting over that bowl game hump.

I think a realistic worst-case scenario for NT would be a 2010-like season where Littrell just can't get much going and loses the team.  Bloesch steps up and tries to make his case for being HC, only to win 2 games against UTEP & FIU.  People around here would think he should be HC too.   "Lock the Gate!"

[Udomann]

10 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I think a realistic worst-case scenario for NT would be a 2010-like season where Littrell just can't get much going and loses the team.  Bloesch steps up and tries to make his case for being HC, only to win 2 games against UTEP & FIU.  People around here would think he should be HC too.   "Lock the Gate!"

Well thanks, my PTSD just set in.

[97and03]

54 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

We should be somewhere of the middle of this, unless injuries just pile up or the team quits on SL, which would make 2-10 very possible. I just don't see how a defense that was dead-ass last in the entire country can improve itself enough while playing an even harder schedule than we played last year. We will see improvement on defense, but I bet it will be later in the year that the improvement shows, as the players get more used to his scheme and, most importantly, the schedule lightens up some.

Again, we have two ins that I fully expect to win or the season will be SL's last here--NW State and UTEP. After that, there are really 4 other opponents that I think we can beat (Rice, USM, FIU, Marshall). If we win 2 of those, that gets SL to 4 wins and I believe that this will be enough for him to get one last year to try and turn it all around. The other 6, SMU, Mizzou, Liberty, UAB, La Tech, and UTSA are all just way ahead of us right now.

That last name, UTSA, is the salt in the wound, as it was just two years ago that they were flailing with a coach who was dead man walking on the sideline, Frank Wilson, and we clobbered them at Apogee 42-3, They replace him with a guy who has all these connections with TX HS Coaches and in Year One has them zoom right by us. That's a most bitter pill to swallow--I realize we are their Super Bowl every year, but they have the momentum we got when we hired SL here and overtook them in their supposed year of prominence, 2017, that crushed their program afterwards until their terrible coach got fired. That this switched on us so fast is just unbelievable...and frankly, pathetic.

I think LaTech, although on the road, could be easier than Marshall. But who knows?

[Mean Green Matt]

Somewhere between 0-12 and 15-0 I’m guessing. 

[NT93]

4 hours ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Somewhere between 0-12 and 15-0 I’m guessing. 

This is the kind of quality insight you can only get here🤣🤣

[UNT Mean Green]

Worst: 4-8 (wins over NW State, FIU, Rice, UTEP) 

Best: 12-2 (wins over everyone but Missouri & Liberty) with a berth in local bowl which draws a massive Mean Green contingent 

[WanderingEagle]

We were a top 10 offense in college football last year. Put a bad to mediocre defense on the field as opposed to literally the worst defense in the country and you're talking the possibility of anywhere from 6-9 wins. 2017 D gave up 6.07 yards per play, 440 yards per game and allowed 942 plays. They were one of the worst units in the country in terms of getting off the field on third down. But our offense was 19th in the country and we could score, so as long as we could hang 30-40 in a given matchup we had a chance week after week.

Same thing this year. Sky isn't falling. If we win some games we aren't supposed to there's a 8-9 win season and a possible West division push on the table. 

The worst case scenario is we win 4-5 games and just underachieve. This team is too talented to lose 9 or more, especially on offense. I think what matters is not how much we lose but how we lose. I will not be mad in the slightest if this team goes 5-7 with like one blowout max. I'll be upset but I am dead tired of watching us get steamrolled. FAU 2x, Troy, Utah State, SMU every year other than 18, UTSA 20, App State..... I'm tired of it. I think we all are. I honestly, genuinely care way more about how we lose this year more than the record. 

[Green Lantern]

3 hours ago, WanderingEagle said:

I will not be mad in the slightest if this team goes 5-7 with like one blowout max. I'll be upset but I am dead tired of watching us get steamrolled. FAU 2x, Troy, Utah State, SMU every year other than 18, UTSA 20, App State..... I'm tired of it. I think we all are. I honestly, genuinely care way more about how we lose this year more than the record. 

No way. I like Seth as a coach & personally  - I fondly remember traveling to Boca for the Conference Title game & haven’t written him off like some have - but if he can’t win at least 6 in the regular season this far into his tenure, we need to look at other options.
 

No excuses on the schedule either. No game is un-winnable, though there are several tough tests.

Edited August 21, 2021 by Green Lantern

[WanderingEagle]

23 minutes ago, Green Lantern said:

No way. I like Seth as a coach & personally  - I fondly remember traveling to Boca for the Conference Title game & haven’t written him off like some have - but if he can’t win at least 6 in the regular season this far into his tenure, we need to look at other options.
 

No excuses on the schedule either. No game in un-winnable, though there are several tough tests.

I agree with everything you said, but the thing is UNT doesn't fire a coach for going 5-7 after two 4 win seasons, especially when he is on contract to be here through 2023. He is not getting bought out, so he either has to win or has to do so poorly this year that our donors think it's an upward move to search elsewhere. 

This schedule has 10 winnable games I would say and 2 I would say are almost sure losses (Liberty and Mizzou). If we can win 5-6 of those "winnable" games I am happy. 

[UNT 90 Grad]

20 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I think a realistic best case scenario for NT would be a 2013-like season. 
A rough start, but hitting their stride mid-season, and putting themselves in a position to win the West.  Then finally getting over that bowl game hump.

I think a realistic worst-case scenario for NT would be a 2010-like season where Littrell just can't get much going and loses the team.  Bloesch steps up and tries to make his case for being HC, only to win 2 games against UTEP & FIU.  People around here would think he should be HC too.   "Lock the Gate!"

 

[TheColonyEagle]

Worst case: 2-10 - there are a bunch of winnable games but there are also a bunch of losable. FCS team and UTEP should be guaranteed wins.  The rest of our schedule is unlucky. Our home schedule is really tough. The road games are teams that are beatable but are on the road. 
 

Best case: 9-3 - who knows? Does the talent he’s brought in put it together this year? Do we stay healthy? I’ve been tough on Littrell based on the last few seasons but I would say this has to be his most talented full team and his best on both lines. Which is what wins games. If in 1 year, our D can just make the leap to below average instead of a total disaster….we should be able to score enough points to win games. I feel better about our QB situation than I have since Fine. 
 

I am really hoping we surprise some people this year. 

[untlynchka1]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:54 AM, untjim1995 said:

We should be somewhere in the middle of this, unless injuries just pile up or the team quits on SL, which would make 2-10 very possible. I just don't see how a defense that was dead-ass last in the entire country can improve itself enough while playing an even harder schedule than we played last year. We will see improvement on defense, but I bet it will be later in the year that the improvement shows, as the players get more used to his scheme and, most importantly, the schedule lightens up some.

Again, we have two games that I fully expect to win or the season will be SL's last here--NW State and UTEP. After that, there are really 4 other opponents that I think we can beat (Rice, USM, FIU, Marshall). If we win 2 of those, that gets SL to 4 wins and I believe that this will be enough for him to get one last year to try and turn it all around. The other 6, SMU, Mizzou, Liberty, UAB, La Tech, and UTSA are all just way ahead of us right now.

That last name, UTSA, is the salt in the wound, as it was just two years ago that they were flailing with a coach who was dead man walking on the sideline, Frank Wilson, and we clobbered them at Apogee 42-3, They replace him with a guy who has all these connections with TX HS Coaches and in Year One has them zoom right by us. That's a most bitter pill to swallow--I realize we are their Super Bowl every year, but they have the momentum we got when we hired SL here and overtook them in their supposed year of prominence, 2017, that crushed their program afterwards until their terrible coach got fired. That this switched on us so fast is just unbelievable...and frankly, pathetic.

Ok, so my only response about the defense is

a) they tried to implement a brand new scheme with no spring or real ability to meet beforehand. On top of that, I hate the 3-3-5. For it to truly work you need more than 1 NT and d-ends that are big enough to hold the line. 
 

B) our LB’s and multiple other people missed games because of covid so we had several games with people that really didn’t know what they were doing. 
 

C) This is just pure optimism.  I’ve heard from a friend of mine that coached the Murphys’ in hs that they have put on some size, and they love DE. He worked out with them in the summer.  They are special, and they are hungry. They had 7 combined sacks in roughly half a season as d-ends on a 3-man front. What are they gonna do now that they can pin their ears back and get after the qb?????

On 8/20/2021 at 11:30 AM, MeanGreenTexan said:

I think a realistic best case scenario for NT would be a 2013-like season. 
A rough start, but hitting their stride mid-season, and putting themselves in a position to win the West.  Then finally getting over that bowl game hump.

I think a realistic worst-case scenario for NT would be a 2010-like season where Littrell just can't get much going and loses the team.  Bloesch steps up and tries to make his case for being HC, only to win 2 games against UTEP & FIU.  People around here would think he should be HC too.   "Lock the Gate!"

Man!! I was thinking about this season as well!  That 2010 team, is still, to this day, the one that I have the most what-if disappointment. We played with Clemson. They were shocked. If Nathan Tune hadn’t been lost for the season in the second game, I think that team could’ve done something. They had some talent. Especially on offense, and as much as Dodge did wrong, he put some damn good offenses on the field. It was also the first time he had what looked like a competent defense. 
 

Of course if we did win, then we would’ve never gotten rid of Dodge. Lol. So it’s a catch-22. 

Edited August 22, 2021 by untlynchka1

[Jonnyeagle]

6 hours ago, untlynchka1 said:

our LB’s and multiple other people missed games because of covid so we had several games with people that really didn’t know what they were doing. 

This is true.

[KingDL1]

My question is do we have anything resembling an offensive line? We have not had one under Littrell. Has that been addressed? 

[GrandGreen]

1 hour ago, KingDL1 said:

My question is do we have anything resembling an offensive line? We have not had one under Littrell. Has that been addressed? 

I guess the rest of the offense must have been great, the number 1 statistical CUSA leader without an OL.

Anything can improve, but NT's issues under Littrell have been on the defensive side. 

 

[Mean Green 93-98]

1 hour ago, KingDL1 said:

My question is do we have anything resembling an offensive line? We have not had one under Littrell. Has that been addressed? 

Are you joking?  We may not be the best in conference, but O-line play last year under Bloesch shot up significantly from what we had under Langston.  Returning as many starters as we are, I expect even better O-line play this year.

[KingDL1]

15 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Are you joking?  We may not be the best in conference, but O-line play last year under Bloesch shot up significantly from what we had under Langston.  Returning as many starters as we are, I expect even better O-line play this year.

Sorry I was not joking and I did not want to take last year as any real indication. But good to hear and I hope so. I look forward to seeing an O-line of some sort.