A Power Four Structure Seems Likely With Big 12 Left Out of Alliance Talks

[Coach Andy Mac]

That leaves the Big 12 — the final league in the current Power Five hierarchy — on the outside looking in. And as things stand, it doesn’t seem as if that subtle shift will steer off course, potentially leaving the eight teams that are left in the league in its current form (OSU among them) in a vulnerable position. Here’s Dennis Dodd on the latest there:

Worse for the Big 12, it portends a nuclear winter for those schools’ athletic budgets. Programs with hundreds of millions tied up in facilities will downsize. Minor sports will be dropped. The impact will affect not only athletics but the universities themselves. Being an autonomous (Power Five) institution is a branding that carries with it the cache that allows schools to hire staff, faculty and be awarded research grants. Even enrollment would likely be impacted.

Dodd added that Kansas could be playing basketball in the Mountain West (!) and that major conference membership specifically for Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor is a real threat in this round of realignment. Additionally, he adds, this new alliance threat suggests the possibility of the Big 12 or the American fading away “with one likely absorbing the other.”
 

read more: https://pistolsfiringblog.com/a-power-four-structure-seems-likely-with-big-12-left-out-of-alliance-talks/

 

[keith]

It seems like ending with 4 "power" conferences or whatever you want to call them has been a forgone conclusion ever since the SEC added UT and OU.  I think the only question that remains is how many schools each of these conferences end up with and where do they come from?  Does the SEC stay at 16?  Why not 18 or 20?  It could operate as conferences within a conference if it wants to.  Does it want cross-over games or just wait for the championship for the two divisions to meet?  How many OOC games does the conference want to give its members?  If it grows does it take from other "power" conferences?  Do the other three follow suit and all grow to 16 or more?  One way or another, it seems like there will be 4 (total population of the 4 TBD) and the others.

[edcollopy]

How lucky are schools like Ole Miss, Miss St, and Vandy....no way they are better programs than some of the Big 12 schools getting left in the cold.  We could go around each major conference and say the same thing (Rutgers, Washington State, ETC).

[Wag Tag]

Does becoming an independent make sense? Baylor would be a prime example. No way these schools are going to move down to the Tulsa league.

[DeepGreen]

All I know is this talk of P4 power conferences, NIL, etc.,  makes college football less and less appealing to me.  Instead of the NCAA running things for the P5/P6 conferences, why don't they transfer the oversite of college football to the NFL.

[untjim1995]

39 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

Does becoming an independent make sense? Baylor would be a prime example. No way these schools are going to move down to the Tulsa league.

I think what Baylor and TCU would prefer, if left out of the true power conferences, they would be like BYU and become quasi-power in their own minds. If you are private, have lots of money, and can tap into some church leadership, the reality is that independence COULD work. I don't believe it would be successful here because we don't have the support. All the alumni numbers, student enrollment records, and local citizenry that has grown tremendously has never moved the needle much at all here. Heck, we get about 2% of the alumni that care enough to give back. That's why it doesn't feel like it would work out here. But for the big monied privates with church affiliation, that seems very doable.

[keith]

1 hour ago, edcollopy said:

How lucky are schools like Ole Miss, Miss St, and Vandy....no way they are better programs than some of the Big 12 schools getting left in the cold.  We could go around each major conference and say the same thing (Rutgers, Washington State, ETC).

Vanderbilt be like....

 

[untjim1995]

What hasn't happened yet is to see teams get booted from a current power conference. Temple football got booted from the old Big East, but they were never full partners and had an awful program that couldn't compete with the Big East teams.

I think that the schools in the SEC are pretty set. Same with the B1G. The small fries in the Pac 12 and the ACC are probably the next dominoes to eventually fall, even though it will probably be a while before that occurs.

[TheColonyEagle]

Recruiting for those leftover big 12 teams is going to be brutal the next few years.....will be curious to see how this affects the basketball national champs. Crazy.

Edited August 17, 2021 by TheColonyEagle

[El Paso Eagle]

2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

I think what Baylor and TCU would prefer, if left out of the true power conferences, they would be like BYU and become quasi-power in their own minds. If you are private, have lots of money, and can tap into some church leadership, the reality is that independence COULD work. I don't believe it would be successful here because we don't have the support. All the alumni numbers, student enrollment records, and local citizenry that has grown tremendously has never moved the needle much at all here. Heck, we get about 2% of the alumni that care enough to give back. That's why it doesn't feel like it would work out here. But for the big monied privates with church affiliation, that seems very doable.

Interesting. I know they are not well thought of here, but add Liberty and you are talking about a group who could possibly pull this off.

[Mean Green 93-98]

The B12 schools just need to calm down.  Yeah, losing UT and OU is huge, but they still have a pretty good situation if they stick together.  They still have good fan support, they have historic rivalries, they can expect multiple ranked teams in football and basketball at any given time, they will still be a multi-bid team to the NCAA Tournament, they will still have a better chance than any G5 conference to get a team in the football playoff.  Why would KU leave that to join the MWC?

[El Paso Eagle]

19 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

The B12 schools just need to calm down.  Yeah, losing UT and OU is huge, but they still have a pretty good situation if they stick together.  They still have good fan support, they have historic rivalries, they can expect multiple ranked teams in football and basketball at any given time, they will still be a multi-bid team to the NCAA Tournament, they will still have a better chance than any G5 conference to get a team in the football playoff.  Why would KU leave that to join the MWC?

If you were SMU and Houston would you leave the AAC to join a "G6" B12 for the chance to play the Texas schools? 

[MeanGreenTexan]

3 hours ago, keith said:

Vanderbilt be like....

 

"We got baseball!!!!!"    Please keep us around!"

Edited August 17, 2021 by MeanGreenTexan

[untjim1995]

28 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

If you were SMU and Houston would you leave the AAC to join a "G6" B12 for the chance to play the Texas schools? 

This is the question I have--will TCU and Baylor even want SMU near the Big XII if it stays together? I can see them both saying, "we got DFW covered here" . UH is completely different. I'd expect UH, Cincy, and Memphis to be ready to jump if offered. I'd imagine that 4th add would be a strong sell to BYU first, then, if they won't budge, go hard after Colorado State. 

 

[Rudy]

5 hours ago, keith said:

It seems like ending with 4 "power" conferences or whatever you want to call them has been a forgone conclusion ever since the SEC added UT and OU.  I think the only question that remains is how many schools each of these conferences end up with and where do they come from?  Does the SEC stay at 16?  Why not 18 or 20?  It could operate as conferences within a conference if it wants to.  Does it want cross-over games or just wait for the championship for the two divisions to meet?  How many OOC games does the conference want to give its members?  If it grows does it take from other "power" conferences?  Do the other three follow suit and all grow to 16 or more?  One way or another, it seems like there will be 4 (total population of the 4 TBD) and the others.

I think the "power 4" has been a forgone conclusion for a long time. It was just a matter of when. tu and uo were always going to go somewhere, and thus condem the rest of the Big 12. And only a handful of teams in those power 4 really only ever have a chance at the title. 

[untjim1995]

3 minutes ago, Rudy said:

I think the "power 4" has been a forgone conclusion for a long time. It was just a matter of when. tu and uo were always going to go somewhere, and thus condem the rest of the Big 12. And only a handful of teams in those power 4 really only ever have a chance at the title. 

Awhile back, just to back you up on this, I saw a listing that showed the teams who have won a college football championship since 1967, exactly 23 teams have either won or shared a title. And that includes BYU, who will never be allowed to win a title ever again, nor anyone else who even resembles them. It also includes MIchigan, Colorado, Washington, and Georgia Tech , who shared titles, and haven't won another by themselves. SO, remove those outliers and you have exactly 18 teams dominate the sport since the mid 60s. And in the last 15 years, exactly 7 teams win a title, often playing each other in the title games.

And people wonder why the sport has become so boring and losing viewership beyond those very few NFL-lite programs.

[Mean Green 93-98]

3 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

If you were SMU and Houston would you leave the AAC to join a "G6" B12 for the chance to play the Texas schools? 

I'm not sure if you're being serious, but of course SMU or Houston would jump at that.  Whether or not the B12 would invite them, and whether or not either would be in the B12's best interests, is another question.

[untjim1995]

I actually think Kansas would go to the Big East in all sports but football, following the UConn plan, before they would join their basketball wagon to a watered down Big XII, MWC, or especially join the AAC with Wichita State. I think they know that their hoops program would suffer mightily if it wasn't playing in a league that will always be included in the highest level of NCAA play. And the Big East is a power conference in basketball. 

There's just no way they are letting their bellcow get gutted because of geography and football sucking hind tit.

[GrandGreen]

I don't get the dire predictions for the B12.  They lose their 2 biggest names and cash cows, but it is still a viable league.  They will be behind the SEC which they already were.  

They stand pat at 8 or pick up two to four teams and still will be one of the top conferences around.   I think they would be very competitive with the PAC10, B10, and AAC.

This is likely to be the SEC as the P1 and only, and every other league far far behind. 

 

 

 

[El Paso Eagle]

1 hour ago, GrandGreen said:

I don't get the dire predictions for the B12.  They lose their 2 biggest names and cash cows, but it is still a viable league.  They will be behind the SEC which they already were.  

They stand pat at 8 or pick up two to four teams and still will be one of the top conferences around.   I think they would be very competitive with the PAC10, B10, and AAC.

This is likely to be the SEC as the P1 and only, and every other league far far behind. 

 

 

 

If they could get Cinci/Memphis/BYU/UCF they would be better than the Pac10

 

[UNTLifer]

I see Colorado State mentioned from time to time.  What is the attraction to them?

[untjim1995]

2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

I see Colorado State mentioned from time to time.  What is the attraction to them?

Colorado’s TV sets 

[wardly]

I would think three things must happen before the Big 12 does anything. First, either negotiate as early exit for Texas and OU or wait until 2025 for them to leave. Second, accept the fact that either individually or collectively the remaining 8 programs bring no additional revenue to the other P5 programs and have no value. Third, realize that their new ESPN contract in 2025 will be about half of what it is now without the Horns and Sooners, and that any additions to the eight remaining programs will just further reduce their individual piece of the pie. While, in my opinion, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis and Houston do offer some attraction in terms of expanding the conference they bring nothing financially to the table. The Big 12 might be prudent to wait until 2025 before doing anything, as I personally don't see a sense of urgency to act now.

[untjim1995]

The leftovers stand to lose $30 million per year in revenue. To me, if you’re gonna get left behind, cost control becomes the main issue to control. Easiest way to do that? Control travel costs. If I’m Tech, TCU, Baylor, and OSU, at that point, you’ve gotta regionalize. Honestly, that’s where you go get AAC and SBCUSA regional teams to play that are easy to travel to. So, you affiliate with UH, UTSA, Texas State, Tulane, Rice, UNT, SMU, La Tech, UTEP, Tulsa, Arky State, and ULL. 16 teams, split East/West. 

East—Ark St, La Tech, Tulane, Rice, ULL, UH, Tulsa, OSU

West—UTEP, Tech, TCU, SMU, UNT, UTSA, TX St, Baylor

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

The leftovers stand to lose $30 million per year in revenue. To me, if you’re gonna get left behind, cost control becomes the main issue to control. Easiest way to do that? Control travel costs. If I’m Tech, TCU, Baylor, and OSU, at that point, you’ve gotta regionalize. Honestly, that’s where you go get AAC and SBCUSA regional teams to play that are easy to travel to. So, you affiliate with UH, UTSA, Texas State, Tulane, Rice, UNT, SMU, La Tech, UTEP, Tulsa, Arky State, and ULL. 16 teams, split East/West. 

East—Ark St, La Tech, Tulane, Rice, ULL, UH, Tulsa, OSU

West—UTEP, Tech, TCU, SMU, UNT, UTSA, TX St, Baylor

We all know that would never happen.  Those Big 12 leftovers would never make that step "down" as they'll put it.