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For 2021 realignment simplicity let's look at it this way


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For simplicity let's look at it like this:
 
UT and OU are going to the SEC period end of story.  A&M may not like it but they are one vote.
 
The remaining Big 12 leftovers are going to try their very best to land in a P5 conference.  They are all in a disasterous situation but landing in a P5 at least gives them some semblance of hope.
 
Kansas has a great basketball program but their football sucks.  Could they be in the Big 10 for hoops sure - they would fit in fine but not in a million years for football.
Texas Tech is talking PAC12 but does the PAC12 want their sub par academics?  Do Tech fans want to travel out west?
 
Baylor is talking ACC, and the ACC may like an entre into Texas but do Clemson and those types of programs want to travel into Waco? 
 
TCU and Baylor may want to be in the PAC 12 with Tech but the PAC 12 in the past has shunned religious programs.  Would they make an exception?
 
Iowa State and K-State seem to be on an island as Iowa does not want ISU in the B10.  KState is interesting but not sure the B10 is dying to add them.
 
Big 12 could try to get on the offense and add some programs asap to keep alive.  Say Houston, UCF, USF Memphis, Cincy, SMU -- all of their top targets would be in the AAC.
 
This is how things look to me now but there are rumblings that the SEC may try to add more like Clemson and FSU...  if that happens wow this whole thing could blow up and we would just have one major conference.
 
I tend to doubt that the SEC will go there yet because I think they teeter on monopolistic practices and it would involve a lot of political wrangling but at this point who knows.
 
As is typical for UNT, we have to wait and see what happens with SMU.  If SMU were able to convince the Big 12 to take them (don't kid yourself they have money and political power) and the Big 12 was able to survive it could mean that the AAC adds UNT.
 
The problem is what is the AAC after being robbed by the Big 12?  Another C-USA?
 
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Lovely take and well said.  I’ll pick up where you left off.  Similar to the last round, it’s about leveling up.  The weakest get left behind (e.g. Troy didn’t move up to CUSA, even though the argument that Sun Belt is better (it is football wise) it certainly isn’t as politically powerful).  Moving up along with some of our peers into the AAC that is still home to Tulsa, Tulane and ECU is still a positive for us. That seems to be a pretty clear path for how things wind up but things may get weird and wind up entirely different.  I do feel like our fan base is really going to need to rally and finally  donate $ if we are going to maintain a positive trajectory.  Could be that if we don’t, we relegate to whatever new level the galaxy between FCS and G5 becomes.  

Edited by tmjerm
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With out Texas and OU would the Big 12 still be a P5 conference?  knowing that those schools that are left might all be trying to leave it, why would any AAC schools then want to join it?  The AAC would certainly look like a stronger conference. 

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26 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

With out Texas and OU would the Big 12 still be a P5 conference?  knowing that those schools that are left might all be trying to leave it, why would any AAC schools then want to join it?  The AAC would certainly look like a stronger conference. 

Unless the B12 picks up BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Memphis and then they are as good as the P10. 

image.png.9b423029371ac2faf16755fae0a4617a.png

Edited by El Paso Eagle
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Does the Big 12 lose it's P5 status because UT and OU leave? Seems to me the B12 could cherry pick the AAC rather than the other way around. I'm sure UH, smut, Memphis et al would love to become a P5 school. Besides, TT, TCU, and Baylor ain't chopped liver.

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5 minutes ago, greenjoe said:

Are we in anyone’s conference re-alignment discussion ?  Is North Texas being mentioned in some boardroom with conference decision makers ?  I hope so but I haven’t heard so.  I’d like to hear of XYZ school wondering if NT would come aboard.  We are 30 minutes from on of the busiest airports in the country.  Easy to get in and out via I-35E and I-35W.  Good academics and pretty good attendance numbers.  Are we on anyone’s radar ?

Hopefully somewhere. Best case might be a replacement in the AAC is smu left or an addition to the MWC. I do not see us on any P5 radar, or going to the AAC if they get raided unless the ponies move leagues. A lot may depend on the SEC stopping at 16. Once the UT and OU becomes official things will get crazy

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AAC is going to get leftovers, this is going to solidify conferences for a very long time. We are not getting in the AAC with SMU involved. The only step up is the MWC! If schools move to the PAC 12, there should be no reason we are not pursuing this option. Or we could play FIU and FAU the rest of our lives. GMG 

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There are of many speculations that we could push out but I think a highly possible one is: 

BYU, Boise State, Cincinnati and either Houston or Memphis for the additions to the B12. 
 

That leaves Smut where they are and we push for Boise’s slot in the MWC. 
 

It puts us in a better football/basketball conference. It is definitely viewed is a much better conference overall than conference USA. It also gives the MWC a major TV market and stronger recruiting ties to the DFW metroplex which would be a plus for the member schools. Remember this was TCU’s path.

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I’ve posted this forever, but the MWC is about to realize their dream of getting into Texas and into the CST zone. TCU, Baylor, Tech, OSU, and KSU are all in play, while the AAC will have a say, too, where WVU may end up.

What follows for us? Probably nothing. The AAC and MWC are gonna get the Big Leftovers and that’s gonna do it. 

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3 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

TCU, Baylor, Tech, OSU, and KSU are all in play, while the AAC will have a say, too, where WVU may end up.

You really think those 5-6 P5 programs are going to “drop down” to G level conference?  I don’t see it.

If the B12 leftovers can bring in a couple of quality replacements from the “G” level ranks I think the B12 survives.

 

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12 hours ago, tmjerm said:

Lovely take and well said.  I’ll pick up where you left off.  Similar to the last round, it’s about leveling up.  The weakest get left behind (e.g. Troy didn’t move up to CUSA, even though the argument that Sun Belt is better (it is football wise) it certainly isn’t as politically powerful).  Moving up along with some of our peers into the AAC that is still home to Tulsa, Tulane and ECU is still a positive for us. That seems to be a pretty clear path for how things wind up but things may get weird and wind up entirely different.  I do feel like our fan base is really going to need to rally and finally  donate $ if we are going to maintain a positive trajectory.  Could be that if we don’t, we relegate to whatever new level the galaxy between FCS and G5 becomes.  

Wow!  A 20-team league stretching from Lubbock to Ames IA to Philadelphia to Greenville NC to Memphis TN to Houston to Lubbock.

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7 hours ago, DeepGreen said:

You really think those 5-6 P5 programs are going to “drop down” to G level conference?  I don’t see it.

If the B12 leftovers can bring in a couple of quality replacements from the “G” level ranks I think the B12 survives.

 

Most of them have no choice. The AAC was once the Big East and once people left To go to the ACC and the B1G, it no longer was deemed to be a power conference. This is what will happen if the Big XII stays in existence and absorbs a few teams from other non-power leagues.

We have been saying this for years—the power conferences are gonna get tighter, not expand. UH, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, Boise State, etc…they couldn’t make the club. Well, not Baylor, TCU, and a few others are probably in the same boat. Tech, OSU, and WVU have terrible academic rankings amongst their power league compadres, so the egg heads in the ACC, PAC, and B1G aren’t interested. (see the Tech problem from the B1G to Texas back in 2011 and the PAC telling OU that they weren’t interested in OSU joining with just the Sooners in 2012). WVU has never been accepted by the ACC folks before, but maybe that changes finally? Iowa State has picked the very best time to have football improve greatly to match their AAU academic standing that the B1G basically mandates, which KU has always been to match their hoops program and gives the B1G the KC market foothold. KSU appears to be similar to Tech and OSU, but with even less appeal, since they are out in podunk Kansas. Maybe someone throws them a lifeline, but I don’t see it. 
 

If I were any of the leftovers, I’d get with the rest and make scheduling agreements with them for games, but declare independence, like BYU. Kick it real old school and look like Penn State, Miami, Florida State, Louisville, etc…and just claim to be a top school that will not allow themselves to be deemed as inferior, even though they don’t play in a power conference anymore. That would be my suggestion to them for football.

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So both the Big 10 and Pac 12 are saying that its not about increasing the size of the conference but about increasing the size of the revenues, which none of the left behind Big 12 programs do. If that's the case, then the Big 10 might go after Pac 12 programs such as So. Cal. and Oregon. Who knows?

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The poor AAC is going to have to change all of the letterhead and stationary to state P5 instead of P6.

image.jpeg.0b42474d0767013e2533bd86ccd2d353.jpeg

Edited by UNTLifer
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On 7/25/2021 at 1:40 PM, greenjoe said:

Are we in anyone’s conference re-alignment discussion ?  Is North Texas being mentioned in some boardroom with conference decision makers ?  I hope so but I haven’t heard so.  I’d like to hear of XYZ school wondering if NT would come aboard.  We are 30 minutes from on of the busiest airports in the country.  Easy to get in and out via I-35E and I-35W.  Good academics and pretty good attendance numbers.  Are we on anyone’s radar ?

No, we aren't. But keep in mind, there's only 30-50 teams on ANYONE'S radar. 

The problem with schools like UNT, SMU, TCU, Houston, Rice, etc. is that even though they're located in those markets, the markets are already owned by those top 30-ish teams. They like having these teams to play so that they can wrap the recruiting into the travel, but they don't actually NEED those teams these days with the  stranglehold they have on these markets. The P5 doesn't need TCU to schedule a couple of games at Jerry World each year, and why limit yourself to a 40-50k stadium when you can get twice that in Arlington and better TV ratings? 

4 hours ago, wardly said:

So both the Big 10 and Pac 12 are saying that its not about increasing the size of the conference but about increasing the size of the revenues, which none of the left behind Big 12 programs do. If that's the case, then the Big 10 might go after Pac 12 programs such as So. Cal. and Oregon. Who knows?

Yes, people think this has something to do with the teams' records in the last 5 years or something. It's not like UT has been good in, I can't even remember, 10+ years, but they're still the biggest thing in college sports somehow. It's purely about the contribution in terms of revenue and the size of their budgets and fanbases, including a bunch of people who never went to college and just follow the most popular teams in the P5. There are football-loving people who never left Stonewall tuning in on a Saturday to watch Notre Dame and Ohio State. They aren't searching the Dark Web to find UNT games. They don't care about the market someone is in. They don't care about the education or the schools' grad rates or their budgets or any of that. They just want to watch what's available for them.

All the colleges lie about their actual expenditures, so it's hard to get clear data, and private schools like USC obviously don't report anything. But, if we just go on what IS reported, the P5 has over $1Billion in expenditures every year. That's about 2xMWC and 3xAAC. And that's while carrying along the bottom feeders of their own conference. What's Washington State giving the Pac12 with their $75m budget or whatever that they can't get from Washington's $130m?

Eventually, all the G5 are going to have to realign into something different.  A bunch probably need to admit where they are with their budgets and drop back to FCS or kill their programs. Once the full split occurs, you have to take away the revenue they all get for the body bag games, and that alone will handicap a good number of them enough to force them to look at their athletics expenditures. I don't know where that cut-off will be, because there's still such a wide variance between the bottom half of the P5 and even the middle of the G5, but how much of that is from just being in the conference to begin with?  Does Oklahoma State really have $90m+ to spend if they aren't playing UT and OU regularly?

This isn't expansion in the long-run. This is CONTRACTION. It's just that half the P5 and all the G5 are going to be in denial about it until they are in the final throes. The TV contracts are just life support right now.

 

 

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I believe that the remaining Big XII must remain together.  They have a conference office and commissioner.  They need to add four (or more) to be a conference.  I believe that will come primarily from the AAC.  They will select Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and either UCF or BYU. If they can get both they might add SMU for a 14-team conference.  The AAC could replace with North Texas, UAB, Appalachian State and Rice.  That would create bedlam for CUSA and the Sun Belt.  They would become reorganized on a regional basis...south and east.

.

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On 7/27/2021 at 7:22 PM, southsideguy said:

Will Newsome let Texas teams join the Pac-12 or any other school from his no business with list?

He won't be around long enough to have any say.

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On 7/27/2021 at 3:18 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Here's my new plan (insert sarcasm) - CUSA/Bely/MAC - Just turn our conferences over to ESPN. Let them split everyone into groups and move on

I don't know about your plan, but i definitely will start calling it the Sun Belly conference from now on

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