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C-USA Football 2021 Predictions: UNT 5th in West?

Jonnyeagle

By Jonnyeagle
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Jonnyeagle Grand Master

Jonnyeagle

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5. North Texas  

After winning 18 games from 2017-18, the Mean Green have slipped to an 8-14 record over the last two years. Scoring points won’t be a problem for coach Seth Littrell’s team in ’21. However, the defense has to show marked improvement to get back to a bowl.

 

Previewing the Offense

Strength: The Mean Green led Conference USA in scoring (34.4 ppg), yards per play (6.6), and most gains of 40-plus yards (19) last season. Littrell has to sort out an intriguing quarterback battle between Austin Aune and former North Carolina signal-caller Jace Ruder, but this unit should be explosive once again. DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III lead a strong backfield, and four starters return from one of the top lines in the league. A healthy Jyaire Shorter at receiver will help replace the production left behind by Jaelon Darden.

Concern: Can Aune or Ruder claim the job and play with enough consistency to keep the offense on track all year? Shorter’s return is huge, but North Texas needs a couple of other playmakers to emerge at receiver. The offense has to do a better job at managing turnovers after losing 15 in 2020.

Incoming Transfers: QB Jace Ruder; WR Tommy Bush

Previewing the Defense

Strength: Littrell’s hire of veteran coordinator Phil Bennett was a strong move to get a struggling defense pointed in the right direction. Tackle Dion Novil and linebackers Tyreke Davis and KD Davis are three key players among nine returning defensive starters for North Texas in 2021.

Concern: This unit allowed a whopping 42.8 points a game and surrendered 6.94 yards per play last season. Even with a new play-caller and help through the transfer portal, major improvement might be a year away.

Incoming Transfers: DB Logan Wilson; DB John Davis; DB TyRae Thornton; DL Kameron Hill; LB Carson Kropp; CB Ridge Texada; LB Sean-Thomas Faulkner; DL Enoch Jackson; DB Greg Francis

read more:  https://athlonsports.com/college-football/conference-usa-football-2021-predictions

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untjim1995 Grand Master

untjim1995

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33 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

5. North Texas  

After winning 18 games from 2017-18, the Mean Green have slipped to an 8-14 record over the last two years. Scoring points won’t be a problem for coach Seth Littrell’s team in ’21. However, the defense has to show marked improvement to get back to a bowl.

 

Previewing the Offense

Strength: The Mean Green led Conference USA in scoring (34.4 ppg), yards per play (6.6), and most gains of 40-plus yards (19) last season. Littrell has to sort out an intriguing quarterback battle between Austin Aune and former North Carolina signal-caller Jace Ruder, but this unit should be explosive once again. DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III lead a strong backfield, and four starters return from one of the top lines in the league. A healthy Jyaire Shorter at receiver will help replace the production left behind by Jaelon Darden.

Concern: Can Aune or Ruder claim the job and play with enough consistency to keep the offense on track all year? Shorter’s return is huge, but North Texas needs a couple of other playmakers to emerge at receiver. The offense has to do a better job at managing turnovers after losing 15 in 2020.

Incoming Transfers: QB Jace Ruder; WR Tommy Bush

Previewing the Defense

Strength: Littrell’s hire of veteran coordinator Phil Bennett was a strong move to get a struggling defense pointed in the right direction. Tackle Dion Novil and linebackers Tyreke Davis and KD Davis are three key players among nine returning defensive starters for North Texas in 2021.

Concern: This unit allowed a whopping 42.8 points a game and surrendered 6.94 yards per play last season. Even with a new play-caller and help through the transfer portal, major improvement might be a year away.

Incoming Transfers: DB Logan Wilson; DB John Davis; DB TyRae Thornton; DL Kameron Hill; LB Carson Kropp; CB Ridge Texada; LB Sean-Thomas Faulkner; DL Enoch Jackson; DB Greg Francis

read more:  https://athlonsports.com/college-football/conference-usa-football-2021-predictions

Its hard to argue this unless the defense improves drastically--we have 4 games that seem like must haves to me:

NW State, Rice, FIU, and UTEP. If you can steal another somewhere, I'll feel like SL is turning things around and will get a shot to basically earn an extension if we have a good 2022 season. But where that comes from will be tough to find--the best chance appears to be at USM--but those other teams on the schedule just look way above where we are currently. 

 

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Salsa_Verde Mentor

Salsa_Verde

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Defense, Defense, Defense. If this team can have a competent or just average defense all bets are off because it has been proven that SL teams can score points regardless. Also, these previews don’t hold a lot of water for me because the people who do them usually don’t pay that much attention to this conference and just make an educated guess based on information that is public knowledge.  

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NorthTexasSportsNetwork Grand Master

NorthTexasSportsNetwork

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1 hour ago, RBP79 said:

The way these people talk about CUSA you would think we're on top of the G5 pile....this conference is wide open and until October I don't think you can accurately predict crap in this conference.

Exactly. Not many thought utsa would be towards the top of the conference last year and so on. I would say the CUSA is the most unpredictable conference.

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untjim1995 Grand Master

untjim1995

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1 hour ago, RBP79 said:

The way these people talk about CUSA you would think we're on top of the G5 pile....this conference is wide open and until October I don't think you can accurately predict crap in this conference.

Its interesting you say this. I have gone back to 2017, when UAB got back to playing football again. In 2017, when we won the West, UAB and USM tied for 2nd, and LT finished 3rd. The bottom three were the Texas spares. In 2018, UAB finished 1st, LT, USM, and us finished tied for 2nd, followed by the three other spares. IN 2019, UAB finished 1st, LT finished 2nd, USM, finished 3rd, then UTSA, Rice, and us all tied at 3-5, followed UTEP. Then, last season, albeit a weird one due to COVID, UAB again finished first, UTSA finished in 2nd by a half game over LT, who were the only teams with a winning conference record.

Basically, CUSA West has been absolutely predictable at the top--UAB owns this thing with three straight division titles, which followed them finishing second when they got back up again. After them, clearly LT is next, having finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd. In the same time, we finished 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 4th.

So then I went back to see who we have done against UAB, LT, and USM just to gauge where we sit:

2017--beat UAB by a FG at home, beat LT 1 point there, and beat USM by 15 there.

2018--lost to LT at home by 2, lost at UAB by 8 points, and beat USM by 23 here

2019--lost at USM by 18 points, lost at LT by 35 points, and lost to UAB at home by 5

2020--lost to USM at home by 10, lost to LT at home by 11, and didn't play UAB because of COVID.

In that 4 season span, we are 1-2 against UAB, 1-3 against LT, and 2-2 against USM. Now, against the CUSA West Texas teams, we are 3-1 against UTSA, 3-1 against Rice, and 4-0 against UTEP. And seeing how UTSA just donkey-punched us by 32 points, its fairly easy to see how the few media folks that follow and predict CUSA results see that we belong around 5th in CUSA West for their early predictions, especially while we have brand new coordinators, a head coach on the hot seat, and an unsettled QB situation. 

 

 

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GrayEagle Veteran

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My prediction is that we are no less than third in the CUSA West.  

I believe that the offense will be =/> than last year.  Aune will show some improvement over last year when he was one of the best in the country.  He was 26th in the nation in passing rating in spite of only a 55% completion average.  While losing our best receiver in our history, he is being replaced by the highest rated (247 combined) receiver in our history and another who originally had a combined rating of .8812 when coming out of high school.  We return outstanding receiver Deonte Simpson  and a healthy Jy'aire Shorter.

The defense will be vastly improved because they couldn't be worse than last year.  First, we have a real Defensive Coordinator who has had success at that position.  Second, we will have a four-man line which will deter double-teaming Dion Novil and give the improving Murphy twins, McCrae, Enoch Jackson and others a chance to contribute.  Linebacking will be improved as last year's starters return and the emergence of Jordan Brown and Jacobi Johnson.

Special teams will be improved as Mooney returns to 2019 form.  Rodriguez is an effective rugby style punter and a traditional punter is on the way.  Coverage teams should be better as that was the specialty of several transfers. 

The most valuable improvement will come from the coaches and the spirit of those that are transferring in.  They are winners and will give their best effort.

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