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12 team model looks likely for Playoff


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44 minutes ago, greenminer said:

there were four SEC a teams in the final CFB Playoff rankings Top 10 last year. It’ll be interesting to see what that kind of scenario would do to the rest of CFB. How would we, or even other P5 conferences, feel if one-third of the 12-team playoffs are SEC?

Monkeys paw: you get 4 of your conference teams in the play off
Monkeys paw curls: you also get to watch those teams get chewed apart by a strong G5 team, making your conference look weaker by comparison

More isn't better sometimes. I'd rather have my 2 strongest teams go toe to toe than see a couple of them fall to "lesser" schools

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On 6/8/2021 at 1:09 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Let's see 

  • 5 teams - P5 Conference Champs
  • 1 team   - Highest rate G5 team
  • 4 teams - Next 5 highest ranked teams **
  • 2 teams - At-Large - So they can make sure a team like Notre Dame or Texas get in

** Not more than 3 teams from any one conference

Another change I would like to see - No more split conferences. Play every team in your conference like the B12 does

Not bad.

 

On 6/8/2021 at 1:16 PM, MeanGreenTexan said:

If we're talking 12, then each G5 should have their champ represented as well.   Having just the 1 highest-ranked G5 represented should be satisfactory for an 8-team playoff (which is where it actually should land).

YES!!

 

1 hour ago, Monkeypox said:

Proposal currently is:

6 highest-ranked conference champions

6 next highest-ranked teams

NO LIMIT ON NUMBER OF CONFERENCE MEMBERS IN PLAYOFF

 

That would be a disappointment.  

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1 hour ago, greenminer said:

The best conference in CFB, the SEC, will look to establish/reinforce their dominance. The more of them in the playoffs, the better, they’d say.

there were four SEC a teams in the final CFB Playoff rankings Top 10 last year. It’ll be interesting to see what that kind of scenario would do to the rest of CFB. How would we, or even other P5 conferences, feel if one-third of the 12-team playoffs are SEC?

Having said that, this current proposal seems to almost (not certainly) guarantee that we will no longer see an undefeated G5 team left out.

That's basically what it looked like. I ran back the last 6-7 years (not counting last year because it was janky with Covid, so I don't think it's great from a data standpoint).

Memphis, UCF, Western Michigan, Houston get in. But they'd be taking what is, in reality, one G5 spot. The rest are going to be there to allow for a greater depth of the P5 schools. Yeah, you win 11+ games as a G5 and win your conference, you are likely getting in, as about one team does each year. This kills that debate.

But it also kills any chance of further expansion or a true levelling of the playing field, because you're throwing a bone to the #2-#4 teams in each P5 conference along with that one G5 everyone will pretend to care about each year. The other P5 conferences will bitch about it like they do now when it's not their turn, but there will be years when 3-4 Big 12 or Big 10 teams get in, and then it will be the SECs turn to bitch. 

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19 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

Yeah, you win 11+ games as a G5 and win your conference, you are likely getting in

Not in C-USA.  In 2014, Marshall went 13-1, and even after their bowl win were only ranked #23.  Keep in mind that C-USA has gone downhill since then while other conferences have ascended.  Our only possibility is to go undefeated and in dominant fashion.

Edited by Mean Green 93-98
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1 minute ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Not in C-USA.  In 2014, Marshall went 13-1, and even after their bowl win were only ranked #23.  Our only possibility is to go undefeated and in dominant fashion.

Yes, you are correct. I underestimated the number of times G5 champs actually won 11+ games. I guess because WE never do it and it so rarely matters when someone else does.

The aim for G5 has to be undefeated, but that's really because there's ONE slot and someone with 1-2 losses can always be argued or given a spot higher than you (as was the case in 2014 where a 10-2 Boise State (eventual 12-2) came in at 16 (but actually only 20 in the CFP standings). Boise State lost early to eventual #9 Ole Miss and in late September to Air Force (a 10-win team), while Marshall lost to WKU (4-4 in conference, 8-5 overall).

Like I said... ONE slot for G5. So it's only for the one that everyone talks about every year.

So.... I could be wrong about a team here or there, but here's the math by the number of teams/conference who would have gotten in under this format from 2015-2019.

ACC - 10 teams (2/yr)

Big 10 - 16 teams (3.2/yr)

Big 12 - 7 teams (1.4/yr)

Pac 12 - 9 teams (1.8/yr)

SEC - 11 teams (2.2/yr)

G5 - 5 (1/yr)

Indy (ND) - 2 (0.5/yr)

Now, that's really only a cursory look at the data. Once expanded to 12, they would likely start paying a LOT more attention to who they rank in those 6-12 spots, so this is all just really an exercise. Would they, for example, have left Alabama at 13 in 2019, below Baylor and every other 2 and 3-loss team above them? Or would Alabama have managed to squeeze up there one more slot and knock someone else out?

 

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5 hours ago, Monkeypox said:

Proposal currently is:

6 highest-ranked conference champions

6 next highest-ranked teams

NO LIMIT ON NUMBER OF CONFERENCE MEMBERS IN PLAYOFF

 

6? What is this 6 you speak of? Is that their way to throw a bone to the "G5" or is that their way to slowly open the door to the AAC? 

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29 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

6? What is this 6 you speak of? Is that their way to throw a bone to the "G5" or is that their way to slowly open the door to the AAC? 

That's the bone to the G5. Imagine a world where UCF AND Boise State are in but some Big 10 or SEC team gets left out. Never going to happen.  They're opening the door for the #2-#4 teams in each P5 to get in, and throwing a bone to the one G5 every year that gets people riled up by winning a bunch of games and sitting at home.

All you really have to do is look at the final (pre-bowl) rankings from the last so many years and see what it's going to look like. Big 10/SEC will have 2-3 teams in it most years, sometimes 4 from one or the other. And my guess is that the highest ranked G5 Conference Champ will end up almost always ranked lower than 12, they'll get washed most years running the gauntlet.

So the downside to getting 2-4 of your conference mates into the playoff is that there's a slight chance the one G5 you let in upsets the apple cart. Small price to pay for the ability to get Alabama, Georgia, LSU, AND Florida in one year... or Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St, Wisconsin in another.

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9 hours ago, greenminer said:

The best conference in CFB, the SEC, will look to establish/reinforce their dominance. The more of them in the playoffs, the better, they’d say.

there were four SEC a teams in the final CFB Playoff rankings Top 10 last year. It’ll be interesting to see what that kind of scenario would do to the rest of CFB. How would we, or even other P5 conferences, feel if one-third of the 12-team playoffs are SEC?

Having said that, this current proposal seems to almost (not certainly) guarantee that we will no longer see an undefeated G5 team left out.

If also doesn’t guarantee G5 participation either. 

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9 hours ago, 97and03 said:

If also doesn’t guarantee G5 participation either. 

 

9 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Sure it does... If they stick to the format of the 6 highest ranked conference champions as the first 6 in. 

As things are right now, with this arrangement the AAC would likely get its champion in.  The Sun Belt and the MWC would have a shot.  But even an undefeated C-USA champ wouldn't be guaranteed a spot.  The power brokers would likely give a 1-loss AAC team the nudge over an undefeated C-USA team.

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8 minutes ago, meangreen11 said:

No doubt I could see Notre Lame petition for an automatic playoff bid every year lol

Yeah, Notre Dame would have made the playoffs about 50% of the time using this new system from the years I looked at. They'd probably just rank any winning ND team at #11 as a minimum and call it a day.

 

2 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

 

As things are right now, with this arrangement the AAC would likely get its champion in.  The Sun Belt and the MWC would have a shot.  But even an undefeated C-USA champ wouldn't be guaranteed a spot.  The power brokers would likely give a 1-loss AAC team the nudge over an undefeated C-USA team.

Wins for AAC Champs (prior to bowl):

2019 - 12

2018 - 12 

2017 - 12 

2016 - 10 (Western Michigan, MAC, 13-0) - USF losing to eventual champ Temple killed their chances... finished 11-2 with the other loss to Florida State

2015 - 12 

2014 (1st year of current format and AAC) - 10 (Boise State, 11-2, MWC)

So IF we went undefeated and IF no other G5 conference winner won 11+ games, we'd have a shot. LOL

 

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