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THOR

What will you think if the experts/government were wrong?

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lets say that the virus wasn't as bad as originally thought.  the economy shut down, 30+% unemployment, debt rising for both americans and government and it was all an overreaction.  are you okay with the overblown safety precautions?  are you okay with millions losing their jobs?  will it make you change your mind about what you believe now when talking about COVID19 in the future?

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1 minute ago, CMJ said:

I suppose the real question is what proves that it was wrong?  What proves that it was correct?  When I said back in March that I thought we'd have to eventually come to terms with lots of deaths, I wasn't being insincere.  I said that we couldn't keep things closed down, but the tradeoff would be a lot more death than people were comfortable with.  I put the  baseline for the first wave at 100K dead.  If you don't believe me it's on the second and third pages of the Corona Virus Effected you thread.  Guess what, people obviously thought I was being nuts given the reactions that followed, but in another week or so we are likely to be there.  And that's with huge lockdowns in effect.

 

Once the benchmarks are established of what's extreme and what isn't are established, then we can have an honest discussion.  Two months ago most people here didn't believe the number would get that high, when once again, that was my baseline.  And now that is generally acceptable.  So, the goalposts have already moved.  Hence, we need parameters on what proves overreaction or not, since I was thought of as reactionary and I was prophetic.

honestly, i don't really know what proves that it was wrong or right.  i'm on the other side of this issue with you.  do we look at the dead as compared to a regular year(overall deaths, not specific of one way or the other since we don't totally know whats a real covid death or pneaumonia death, etc).  

 

i was just curious if people would change their minds about the reaction that the country has had.  for me, hell ya i'll change my mind if this is the worst thing since bubonic plague (overreaction, i know, but can't think of another plague) and admit that i'm a big dumbass.  people are just so dug in on their beliefs that i was just curious if people would actually change their mind and admit they were wrong.  to me, what it's costing in business/bankruptcy/child abuse/suicide doesn't seem worth it.  the last two are just things that i've seen that are going up or could due to the stress of being around family constantly and losing thier job with no end in sight. 

 

thanks for an honest, good thought out answer.

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1 hour ago, THOR said:

honestly, i don't really know what proves that it was wrong or right.  i'm on the other side of this issue with you.  do we look at the dead as compared to a regular year(overall deaths, not specific of one way or the other since we don't totally know whats a real covid death or pneaumonia death, etc).  

 

i was just curious if people would change their minds about the reaction that the country has had.  for me, hell ya i'll change my mind if this is the worst thing since bubonic plague (overreaction, i know, but can't think of another plague) and admit that i'm a big dumbass.  people are just so dug in on their beliefs that i was just curious if people would actually change their mind and admit they were wrong.  to me, what it's costing in business/bankruptcy/child abuse/suicide doesn't seem worth it.  the last two are just things that i've seen that are going up or could due to the stress of being around family constantly and losing thier job with no end in sight. 

 

thanks for an honest, good thought out answer.

This piece sorta goes into your question of comparing deaths to a regular year worldwide.  Too early to tell for sure, but it does seem that there are lots of excess deaths to what would be expected in an average year.

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mortality-hint-higher-coronavirus-death.html

 

Listen, I am currently unemployed.  I'm lucky in that I have a lot of money saved and my wife has a secure job, but it's not like my own life hasn't been changed by this.  I also don't think we could keep locked down much longer (and we aren't...almost the entire country is at least partially reopening) - but do I think we're gonna have to be very cautious how we go forward.  I said on another thread (not sure now, since we have several going on the subject these days) that I'd wait about a month for every partial step of the reopen.  If things are looking good, then reopen further...if about the same stay the same...and if there's a drastic increase relock down some of the stuff you've reopened.  That's what I would suggest.  But I do agree we can't keep with how it was.  We're just gonna have to be careful for awhile.

 

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2 hours ago, THOR said:

lets say that the virus wasn't as bad as originally thought.  the economy shut down, 30+% unemployment, debt rising for both americans and government and it was all an overreaction.  are you okay with the overblown safety precautions?  are you okay with millions losing their jobs?  will it make you change your mind about what you believe now when talking about COVID19 in the future?

Like if the overall percentage of deaths in the U.S. turns out to be similar to what San Diego County found out back on May 14th, which would be under 3,000 total deaths FROM Cov-19?  Then I’m gonna be pissed like everyone else.  
 

Rick

Edited by FirefightnRick
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That argument is BS Rick.  At least 54 million Americans of working age (eg non elderly) have pre-existing conditions.  Some estimates put that number much higher.

 

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

 

So, I'd say unless you think all of those folks are at death's door, it is perfectly reasonable to count them.

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As has already been stated, how do we if the response was right or wrong?  If we hadn’t been shut down would there be twice as many deaths?  Who knows.

That being said, my position has changed somewhat since this all began.  I was pretty much on board with shutting things down (including my own business) in order to contain the virus, but maybe not so much anymore.  A couple of my problems are:

1) What is an essential business?  There are places that don’t seem very essential that are allowed to stay open.  Also, with so many businesses closed down, the crowds are just larger at the essential businesses.  At least that’s what I’ve experienced.  
 

2) Close things down only when needed.  Texas is obviously a big state, yet we shut the whole thing down at once.  My business is being allowed to reopen tomorrow and the virus Is worse here now than it was a month ago.  So I was shut down for over a month and there were less than 10 cases in the county.  Now that we are up over 100 cases, businesses are allowed to reopen.  Sorry, but that makes no sense.  Sparsely populated West Texas is treated the same as Dallas and Houston.  

Edited by NT93
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2 hours ago, CMJ said:

That argument is BS Rick.  At least 54 million Americans of working age (eg non elderly) have pre-existing conditions.  Some estimates put that number much higher.

 

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

 

So, I'd say unless you think all of those folks are at death's door, it is perfectly reasonable to count them

 

 

Its so funny how those shitting their pants the most over this can never allow anyone else to have a dissenting voice, not even in a hypothetical discussion.

 

Dave explains it pretty good why so many are becoming so skeptical of the entire thing..  
 

 

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/14/dave-portnoy-barstool-founder-goes-viral-with-anti/

 

 

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You deny that 54 million people or more have pre-existing conditions?  That is a significant percentage of the population and doesn't even include elderly Americans .  Another 15.2% (49.2 million people) of Americans are of retirement age (65 or over).  So that's nearly 1 in 3 that could be considered at a higher than normal increased risk of a bad outcome.  And that's at minimum.

 

So to say "oh those folks are unhealthy anyway, so we can't count them as Covid-19 deaths" throws out a whole lot of people.  At least a third of the country.  And as I've also stated before, very few people die without multiple co-morbidities.  They all play into it to a degree, but something is the straw that breaks the camel's back.  And given that excess deaths are higher around the developed world right now, not just here in the USA, it is fairly clear that the coronavirus is that cause.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CMJ said:

You deny. that 54 million people or more have pre-existing conditions?  That is a significant percentage of the population and doesn't even include elderly Americans .  Another 15.2% (49.2 million people) of Americans are of retirement age (65 or over).  So that's nearly 1 in 3 that could be considered at a higher than normal increased risk of a bad outcome.  And that's at minimum.

 

So to say "oh those folks are unhealthy anyway, so we can't count them as Covid-19 deaths" throws out a whole lot of people.  At least a third of the country.  And as I've also stated before, very few people die without multiple co-morbidities.  They all play into it to a degree, but something is the straw that breaks the camel's back.  And given that excess deaths are higher around the developed world right now, not just here in the USA, it is fairly clear that the coronavirus is that cause.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, CMJ said:

As usual, your argument skills are pitiable.

 

@THOR asked for people’s opinion,...not for arguments.  .So I’m simply mocking you.  
 

Rick

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6 hours ago, CMJ said:

I suppose the real question is what proves that it was wrong?  What proves that it was correct?  When I said back in March that I thought we'd have to eventually come to terms with lots of deaths, I wasn't being insincere.  I said that we couldn't keep things closed down, but the tradeoff would be a lot more death than people were comfortable with.  I put the  baseline for the first wave at 100K dead.  If you don't believe me it's on the second and third pages of the Corona Virus Effected you thread.  Guess what, people obviously thought I was being nuts given the reactions that followed, but in another week or so we are likely to be there.  And that's with huge lockdowns in effect.

 

Once the benchmarks are established of what's extreme and what isn't are established, then we can have an honest discussion.  Two months ago most people here didn't believe the number would get that high, when once again, that was my baseline.  And now that is generally acceptable.  So, the goalposts have already moved.  Hence, we need parameters on what proves overreaction or not, since I was thought of as reactionary and I was prophetic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronavirus-counting-deaths-fatalities/

How do we know the counts are accurate?

What about people with preexisting conditions that arrived at that condition through poor choice and choose to do nothing to reverse those conditions?

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You claim I that you were responding with an opinion, not an argument Rick.  The fact that you used a BS argument (that somehow people with pre-existing conditions don't count as real deaths) as an opinion, meant it was up for grabs as far as a debate.  Then when I challenged you, you resorted to childish antics. 

 

Somehow Thor and I could disagree in a rational way.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronavirus-counting-deaths-fatalities/

How do we know the counts are accurate?

What about people with preexisting conditions that arrived at that condition through poor choice and choose to do nothing to reverse those conditions?

Well, again if you look at the link here, excess deaths are much higher than reported Coronavirus deaths. 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mortality-hint-higher-coronavirus-death.html

 

So, if not for the disease, how else would you attribute the excess deaths worldwide.

 

 

(And sure the US has a ton of folks with pre-existing conditions...north of 50 million...we are a very unhealthy country compared to most other 1st world nations....I bet several people on this board have too high of blood pressure or are overweight, etc.)

Edited by CMJ
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Glad to see we reached the eugenics argument so quickly. 

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58 minutes ago, CMJ said:

 

Somehow Thor and I could disagree in a rational way. 


And you didn’t tell Thor his opinion was bs to start either.
 

Rick

Edited by FirefightnRick
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1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:


And you didn’t tell Thor his opinion was bs to start either.
 

Rick

He didn't post some clown's BS as though it was a fact.  You did.

 

As I continue to point out....if you want to say everyone who has pre-existing conditions or old don't count that's at least a third of the population.  Most people die with multiple morbities.  Something generally pushes them over the edge.  How would you explain the excess deaths from throughout the world, if not for the coronavirus?  Do you honestly think everybody is cooking the numbers, not just the US?  Do you know how hard it is to keep a good secret going?  To quote Ben Franklin, three can keep a secret if two are dead.  The kind of conspiracy that folks are insinuating is beyond the pale, but okay.

 

But, if you wanna get technical nobody dies of anything but cardiac arrest, so let's not count any other cause ever.

 

 

Edited by CMJ
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15 minutes ago, CMJ said:

He didn't post some clown's BS as though it was a fact.  You did.

 

As I continue to point out....if you want to say everyone who has pre-existing conditions or old don't count that's at least a third of the population.  Most people die with multiple morbities.  Something generally pushes them over the edge.  How would you explain the excess deaths from throughout the world, if not for the coronavirus?  Do you honestly think everybody is cooking the numbers, not just the US?  Do you know how hard it is to keep a good secret going?  To quote Ben Franklin, three can keep a secret if two are dead.  The kind of conspiracy that folks are insinuating is beyond the pale, but okay.

 

But, if you wanna get technical nobody dies of anything but cardiac arrest, so let's not count any other cause ever.

 

 


I posted a link to an article that reported a health department that had discovered less than originally reported numbers.  Not some clown bs.  That’s starting to happen more nation wide   I said IF and when it’s all over we find out the total numbers are similar I’m gonna be pissed like most will be.

If you don’t like my opinion tuff titty!.

 

And by the way,...people die of hypoxia to the brain,...not of cardiac arrest(if you want to get technical).  That’s why despite cardiac arrest....you can still keep someone alive by compressing their heart and keeping oxygenated blood delivered to the brain.for quite some time..  



Rick

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I obviously have strong opinions on this subject but the main reason I am not willing to speculate on a better/worse scenario is because A) this is long from over and B) we are still learning what exactly we are dealing with.

Take the idea that kids are largely unaffected by it. Mostly seems that way so far, but then they have seen cases of kids coming down with some kind of terrible disease that seems to be related to covid. And it isn’t a respitory disease. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/straight-up-fire-in-his-veins-teen-battles-new-covid-19-syndrome
Similarly, many patients have experienced kidney problems. And we still don’t know why really. 

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It wasn't their health department Rick.  It was a County Supervisor who was looking for a way to downplay the numbers.  We've known since the beginning that pre-existing conditions increase your chance of dying.  The article literally said he threw out everyone with any pre-existing condition (or elderly, since at a certain age that is already classified as a pre-existing condition), or a third of the population.  So, if we dismiss that many people off the bat, what do we want to classify their death as?  Why the reason for deaths across the nation being at an elevated figure?

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A lot numbers have come out of nursing homes and assisted living.  They are just parking lot until a space opens up in the afterlife.  Look at the long term health insurance numbers and avg stay is less than two years and in majority of cases you did not go home.  Well not your physical home anyway.  So if you got some bad diseases and are waiting to die and you get the virus you are now dead of the virus even though you are on death door step.  

We can hide from it but for how long, it will return with the flu season and if the virus does not get you this summer west nile might get you.  Remember when all the local news could talk about was that. We cant hide from it and we can hope for a vaccine.   Aids took about 10 years to come up for an effective treatment.  Can we shut down the economy for that long?   

I wear the mask, do the hand washing, sanitizer thing, social distance but I am getting to the point if I get it and die then oh well and if I don't I can live my life .   

Side note if we had a balance budget with a lot less national debt life would be easier right now.   Both parties can take blame in putting us into so much debt we can never get out of it and now with a real national emergency we bury ourselves deeper.

 

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the biggest issue, is gov't at all levels did a one size fits all approach, that was basically NYC model, that works if people are living in densely populated areas, but for rural areas was wrong solution. Isolate hot spots IMO would have been better approach, not shut everything down. NYC is totally different than Syracuse/Rochester. Michigan/Oregon also have basically each 2-3 hot spot counties, but they have continued to shut down the entire state.

Just like Dallas/Houston totally different than Odessa, Abilene, etc.. 

Best case this helps for planning for next outbreak and not cause economic collapse. 

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