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5 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Nothing wrong with evaluating something dangerous but Fauci’s evaluations are being used to make critical decisions for a nation based on factors that affect a tiny area(New York/New Jersey), and he’s been very wrong many times.  He should be dismissed.

 

Rick

Again, I will call you when I need your specific set of skills. Determining heath policy is not in your wheelhouse. 

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So, what benchmark should be used to determine when it is safe to open up the economy and lift the quarantine?

The hospital my company is affiliated with, and most hospitals nationwide, were informed of the outbreak and led to believe they would be overrun like NYC.  They applied the NYC model to the entire country.  To date, our hospital has had a total of about nine Covid-19 patients and the county just reached 100 positive cases.  That is .5% of the counties population.  A "one-size fits all" model is not effective.  People have to take personal responsibility and make proper decisions.  

Edited by UNTLifer
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1 minute ago, CMJ said:

Practically every nation in the world also has.

Exactly why it was a poor model.  

What is the benchmark you would like utilized to determine when everything is opened back up?

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10 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Exactly why it was a poor model.  

What is the benchmark you would like utilized to determine when everything is opened back up?

Everything opened up?  We're way far from that.  

 

I'd say we need to see how some of these first measures have played out by early to mid June and take it from there.  If there is a serious increase in deaths then we dial it back some.  If deaths are basically the same we leave the measures as they are now, and if deaths have decreased we open up a few more things.  And that's the way it'll have to be for some time.  About once a month take the measure of how it looks.

We're still way early in this whole process.

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35 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

So, what benchmark should be used to determine when it is safe to open up the economy and lift the quarantine?

The hospital my company is affiliated with, and most hospitals nationwide, we informed of the outbreak and led to believe they would be overrun like NYC.  They applied the NYC model to the entire country.  To date, our hospital has had a total of about nine Covid-19 patients and the county just reached 100 positive cases.  That is .5% of the counties population.  A "one-size fits all" model is not effective.  People have to take personal responsibility and make proper decisions.  

Great point, the decisions should be made by state and local officials. One size doesn’t fit all!! GMG 

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20 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Exactly why it was a poor model.  

What is the benchmark you would like utilized to determine when everything is opened back up?

So because it was a poor model, we shouldn't use a model? or we should use a politicians model? What road are we supposed to take here?

 

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Dr. Jeffrey Barke, Riverside County CA-“I represent thousands of doctors nation wide whose voices are being silenced”.  

“We cannot reach herd immunity if the herd is kept in quarantine.”...

 

Better watch this before YouTube removes it like it’s done so many others.

 

Rick

Edited by FirefightnRick
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3 hours ago, greenminer said:

So because it was a poor model, we shouldn't use a model? or we should use a politicians model? What road are we supposed to take here?

 

1.  I never said we shouldn't use a model, but equating everyone to NYC was wrong and is wrong for many reasons.  Second, models always work out a worst case scenario and are only as good as the information provided.  The reporting of Covid-19 deaths has been far from accurate across the board.

2.  I am just curious what benchmark would make people comfortable.  A vaccine?  Why, we don't have a vaccine for a number of illnesses.  A decrease in deaths?  Decrease to what?  Currently we have realized about a .05% death rate and even lower in some communities.  Relying on the government to support us through this is conditioning people and that is not a good thing.

3 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

Great point, the decisions should be made by state and local officials. One size doesn’t fit all!! GMG 

Exactly my point.  One size doesn't fit all.  Politicizing the "pandemic" is also ridiculous and the media fanning the flames doesn't help.  Honest reporting and civil discussions would go a long way.

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17 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

1.  I never said we shouldn't use a model, but equating everyone to NYC was wrong and is wrong for many reasons.  Second, models always work out a worst case scenario and are only as good as the information provided.  The reporting of Covid-19 deaths has been far from accurate across the board.

2.  I am just curious what benchmark would make people comfortable.  A vaccine?  Why, we don't have a vaccine for a number of illnesses.  A decrease in deaths?  Decrease to what?  Currently we have realized about a .05% death rate and even lower in some communities.  Relying on the government to support us through this is conditioning people and that is not a good thing.

Exactly my point.  One size doesn't fit all.  Politicizing the "pandemic" is also ridiculous and the media fanning the flames doesn't help.  Honest reporting and civil discussions would go a long way.

We don't know what the death rate is, so I'm not sure how you came up with 0.05%.  The current known death rate is 5.9%

 

Obviously it's way lower than that, but we aren't sure what the number is.

Edited by CMJ
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4 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

1.  I never said we shouldn't use a model, but equating everyone to NYC was wrong and is wrong for many reasons.  Second, models always work out a worst case scenario and are only as good as the information provided.  The reporting of Covid-19 deaths has been far from accurate across the board.

2.  I am just curious what benchmark would make people comfortable.  A vaccine?  Why, we don't have a vaccine for a number of illnesses.  A decrease in deaths?  Decrease to what?  Currently we have realized about a .05% death rate and even lower in some communities.  Relying on the government to support us through this is conditioning people and that is not a good thing.

Exactly my point.  One size doesn't fit all.  Politicizing the "pandemic" is also ridiculous and the media fanning the flames doesn't help.  Honest reporting and civil discussions would go a long way.

I agree with everything in #1.  My responses have been geared more towards posts saying we should just abandon the scientists altogether, and rely only on politicians.  The scientists are working with very fluid data, in a situation we have handled poorly.  They are continuously trying to be as accurate as they can in the interest of public health.  Shame on everyone else for putting them in political situations.

What would make me feel more comfortable? Being able to test anyone who wants to be, and trace as needed.  Vaccine: absolutely zero chance of this being a factor.  The number being tossed around is 14-16 months.  My doctor laughed at that.  Some viruses are still around 20+ years after being identified, because we still haven't figured them out.  The 14 month figure is the timetable on testing/approving only after you establish a clear formula/path.  I haven't read anything (yet) about us getting closer. (EDIT: Just saw this)

Edited by greenminer
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19 hours ago, CMJ said:

We don't know what the death rate is, so I'm not sure how you came up with 0.05%.  The current known death rate is 5.9%

 

Obviously it's way lower than that, but we aren't sure what the number is.

Thanks for catching that.  The infection rate is .05% of the population, not the death rate.

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This seems to be a fairly balanced article. It makes points made by some that admit, yes, Sweden's culture is different...but locking down for much longer is simply not sustainable. Ask ourselves: how many people do we know that have actually gotten the virus. Now ask how many people we know whose jobs have gone away. I would say the latter is probably 10 fold....

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

As scientists learn more about the virus and authorities develop new and better ways to work around the contagion—altering the parameters for calculating herd immunity to account for behavioral changes, for instance—the justification for general lockdowns grows weaker and weaker. Even in places like the United States and the United Kingdom, where the pool of at-risk people is much larger, the cost of protecting these people is much lower than forcing everyone to stay home. Managing the path to herd immunity means, above all, protecting the vulnerable. Sweden learned that the hard way, but the situation there is now under control.

Edited by TheColonyEagle
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On 5/13/2020 at 12:54 PM, FirefightnRick said:

Dr. Jeffrey Barke, Riverside County CA-“I represent thousands of doctors nation wide whose voices are being silenced”.  

“We cannot reach herd immunity if the herd is kept in quarantine.”...

 

Better watch this before YouTube removes it like it’s done so many others.

 

Rick

And there it is, the control freaks doing what they do best, controlling.

 

Rick


 

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1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

And there it is, the control freaks doing what they do best, controlling.

 

Rick


 

Removing dangerous or misleading  content? Yes. But don’t worry there is still tons of content for you out there. Can’t delete all the 5g conspiracies, anti-vax, flat earth, and other complete nonsense on social media. They are focusing on this now because it is particularly dangerous. 

Just as so many are willing to sacrifice the elderly and compromised to reach herd immunity (bc without a vaccine that is how you get there since we still are not testing adequately), I would be willing to sacrifice those that refuse to follow scientific guidance - especially the protesters. Unfortunately viruses don’t discriminate that way or follow politics. Those that refuse lockdown definitely help with herd immunity but simultaneously raise the hospitalization and death rates. 

The irony of all this is how much of the division is fed by the very foreign actors (Russia and China) that so many claim to want to oppose. There is a reason that much of the anti-CDC and anti-Fauci content gets posted while Americans are asleep and Moscow is wide awake. 

 

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I don’t understand how some can’t see that a country with 15% unemployment headed toward 25% and greater unemployment (if we don’t open up soon) is sacrificing everyone as well. Everyone will be impacted by the economic ruin of our country. No one is immune to that. There will be more health problems come out of the reaction to this virus than this virus itself. You can’t deny that.

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33 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:


 

...”FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!....NO, NOT YOUR SCIENCE,...MY SCIENCE,  AND REMEMBER, MY SCIENCE IS SETTLED!”....

 

 

Rick

Family physician vs. epidemiology, so....

A scientist who likens this to a season flu.  I roll my eyes at that, but FINE! I  will revisit the numbers again to see how they compare.

I don't think this was enough to be pulled down, though.

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