Jump to content
  • Welcome to GoMeanGreen.com!

    Thank you for visiting us!  Registering is easy and free, and provides you with the ability to participate in the discussions along with many cool features and content.

Sign in to follow this  
Coach Andy Mac

Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

Recommended Posts

National death rates would be more informative if we had national policies and if population density was relatively uniform across states. It isn’t. 
Even within the large states it is difficult. For example in Texas each county has a different policy.  State trends are useful but in the case of Houston, DFW, Miami, etc, looking at them individually is probably more useful for understanding trends. Those areas are as big as many countries in terms of population. And they are also were the virus is most likely to thrive. 
Death rates are important to watch but not nearly as important as infections and hospitalization. Death rates only tell you what has happened and not what is coming. Once a person is dead they are out of the loop to put it frankly. 
Increased infections will lead to more hospitalizations. Hospitalization is the most worrisome indicator for many reasons. 1) there is some predictive value that death rates will rise; 2) hospitalization is a sign of the number of severe infections, which often lead to longer term negative health impacts such as decreased lung capacity or kidney problems which require medical care (and are expensive and keep people out of work); 3) inform us whether routine or elective medical needs can be carried out. Many people died in China and Italy due to a lack of availability hospitals and doctors. Heart attack victims that may have survived with proper treatment died in their apartments. 
 

So yes death rates are morbidly fascinating but not entirely useful while in the middle of a pandemic. Plus the lag in statistics from infections to hospitalization to death is too long to help us understand how fast this is spreading. 

Focusing on the other indicators will help keep the death rate from going up. 

  • Upvote 2
  • Thanks 3
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two months ago South Dakota was one of the hottest spots in the country for infections, but that never translated into deaths.  I'm not talking about overall deaths because obviously not many people live in the Dakotas, but even on a per capita basis, though things were dicey there with not enough beds, it really didn't tip over into overwhelming fatalities.  I watched it on a daily basis.  They did have a rise, but not nearly as much as the numbers indicated there would be.  I'm not sure how to explain that, but it didn't happen.  I know we're getting better at treating the disease all the time, so that is probably a large part of it.

 

Given the sheer volume of the infections out there now, we're no doubt soon to have a rise in deaths.  I examine the numbers every day and I do think it is close to bottoming out (as I stated several posts ago) and we're soon to rise again.  I saw some expert break down a couple of months ago that the average sick person went about 20 days from first exposure of the virus to dying (and generally about 14 days from first getting sick), so that would place the death figures near the beginning of the curve in upward infections which began in mid June.  I keep waiting for the death rise to start, and it soon will surely, but every day of delay makes me hopeful we're not gonna have a total tsunami.

Edited by CMJ
  • Upvote 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/05/some-coronavirus-tests-in-doubt-in-texas-after-lab-turns-up-abnormal-number-of-positives/

"Over 1 million COVID-19 tests have been run in Texas, according to state data. More than 71,000 people have tested positive."

 

You are the king of old articles. 

I don't know why you selected one sentence from the article that didn't really add anything to the context of the story.

This is more appropriate:

"The state is no longer using a laboratory that has tested 14,000 Texans for the coronavirus, after it turned up an abnormal number of positive results during state-ordered testing at nursing homes and in community surveillance."

Out of the million tests in Texas, 14,000 went through this lab and since the lab was under question, they notified the people to ignore or re-test. Wow! Shattering news. 

False positives are incredibly low and bad actor labs will happen. 

More telling are the FALSE negatives:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200610094112.htm

"Researchers found that testing people for SARS-CoV-2 -- the virus that causes COVID-19 -- too early in the course of infection is likely to result in a false negative test, even though they may eventually test positive for the virus......PCR-based tests for SARS-CoV-2 have a false negative rate of at least 20%, depending on the time of testing."

Now that *is* news because of people that may actually be walking around with a false sense of safety. If 20% of tests are returning a false negative? That is something. 

We've known from the beginning that the tests have a false negative and MD's are re-running tests when the symptoms match COVID but the test came back negative. 

Edited by SteaminWillieBeamin
  • Upvote 2
  • Ray 2
  • Eye Roll 2
  • Downvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't realize June 5, 2020 qualified as old.  Thanks for letting my know Dr. Fauci, I mean Dr. SWB.

  • Upvote 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 1
  • Eye Roll 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Didn't realize June 5, 2020 qualified as old.  Thanks for letting my know Dr. Fauci, I mean Dr. SWB.

When posting a quote and link with no other context - it tends implies it is breaking or new. Lifer, MD. 

"...No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared."

https://news.yahoo.com/mysterious-disappearance-first-sars-virus-122053674.html

 

  • Upvote 2
  • Eye Roll 2
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

When posting a quote and link with no other context - it tends implies it is breaking or new. Lifer, MD. 

"...No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared."

https://news.yahoo.com/mysterious-disappearance-first-sars-virus-122053674.html

 

Kind of tells you in the link when it was published

 

image.png.9c8ad8701fad108900a93fecb7bdad68.png

  • Upvote 3
  • Haha 1
  • Eye Roll 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Kind of tells you in the link when it was published

I am tech savvy enough to parse a URI and parameters. I get it. Fully. The AGE of the article is not the real concern. The quote selected from the article and the implication that is matters is the real topic here. 

Guess I'll spell out what I did there.

I posted an article that was only tangentially related to the topic and pulled a random quote that definitely had no bearing... and I gave no explanation as to why I shared a link. It makes no sense. It implies that it is newsworthy. When in fact, it is not, as I stated in my reply. 

 

Edited by SteaminWillieBeamin
  • Upvote 2
  • Haha 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

I am tech savvy enough to parse a URI and parameters. I get it. Fully. The AGE of the article is not the real concern. The quote selected from the article and the implication that is matters is the real topic here. 

Guess I'll spell out what I did there.

I posted an article that was only tangentially related to the topic and pulled a random quote that definitely had no bearing... and I gave no explanation as to why I shared a link. It makes no sense. It implies that it is newsworthy. When in fact, it is not, as I stated in my reply. 

 

Sorry it didn't meet your qualifications as to what matters and what doesn't.  It mattered to the folks out here in Scurry County, but I will try to adhere to your guidelines in the future.  

  • Thanks 1
  • Eye Roll 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i'm perfectly fine...nothing has changed in my life except now i have to wear a mask while in denton.  i just quit posting on these threads because it became a big ole circle of saying the same things and the responses being the same, so i found it pointless

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, THOR said:

i'm perfectly fine...nothing has changed in my life except now i have to wear a mask while in denton.  i just quit posting on these threads because it became a big ole circle of saying the same things and the responses being the same, so i found it pointless

glad you're well!! and wearing a mask!!

  • Upvote 3
  • Eye Roll 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CMJ said:

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

Just don't say his name 3 times in a row...

  • Upvote 2
  • Haha 1
  • Eye Roll 1
  • Downvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

glad you're well!! and wearing a mask!!

i only wear it because it's a new rule in the city of denton, i don't wear one any other place i go

 

and thanks for the well wishes

  • Confused 1
  • Skeptical Eagle 1
  • Eye Roll 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CMJ said:

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

Really want to post something sarcastic but going to try to avoid the bad karma and just hope all is well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/1/2020 at 8:56 PM, CMJ said:

Two months ago South Dakota was one of the hottest spots in the country for infections, but that never translated into deaths.  I'm not talking about overall deaths because obviously not many people live in the Dakotas, but even on a per capita basis, though things were dicey there with not enough beds, it really didn't tip over into overwhelming fatalities.  I watched it on a daily basis.  They did have a rise, but not nearly as much as the numbers indicated there would be.  I'm not sure how to explain that, but it didn't happen.  I know we're getting better at treating the disease all the time, so that is probably a large part of it.

 

Given the sheer volume of the infections out there now, we're no doubt soon to have a rise in deaths.  I examine the numbers every day and I do think it is close to bottoming out (as I stated several posts ago) and we're soon to rise again.  I saw some expert break down a couple of months ago that the average sick person went about 20 days from first exposure of the virus to dying (and generally about 14 days from first getting sick), so that would place the death figures near the beginning of the curve in upward infections which began in mid June.  I keep waiting for the death rise to start, and it soon will surely, but every day of delay makes me hopeful we're not gonna have a total tsunami.

 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also bad news that we are way undercounting the deaths. Once all told - the numbers will put all of this into the right focus. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980?fbclid=IwAR22GzqY6-DpekPn30SZApARe5qDPylJCALtL68hNpujnZMI72e3uvkaPAk
 

This undercount is likely one of the reasons @CMJ hasn't seen the spike he was expecting. 

Edited by SteaminWillieBeamin
  • Upvote 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the country where I live, the hospitals are now so full with “pneumonia” patients that they’ve turned away sick people and told them to go home and treat themselves. People who have symptoms can’t get tests. There are ambulance shortages. 30 percent of cases are medical professionals. There are a handful of people starting to die from other diseases because they were turned away from the specialized hospital that treats their problem because it was turned into a Covid or pneumonia ward. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 97and03 said:

 

They actually still have been slightly declining if you look at the worldometers chart.  Not sure why this one is different, but the seven day moving average the last week is as follows.

 

7/1 - 560

6/30 - 581

6/29 - 595

6/28 - 596

6/27 - 594

6/26 - 604

6/25 - 614

 

Since this is a seven day moving average the number to watch on if the numbers will keep declining or go back up is June 25th, because that will be the number that is replaced in the new rolling average today.  The actual number that day was 653, so if there are less than that many deaths today, the seven day average will go down today...if it is higher than that, it'll nose up.  Worldometers currently shows 377 deaths today, so it'll probably be close to 653 one way or the other.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

Also bad news that we are way undercounting the deaths. Once all told - the numbers will put all of this into the right focus. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980?fbclid=IwAR22GzqY6-DpekPn30SZApARe5qDPylJCALtL68hNpujnZMI72e3uvkaPAk
 

This undercount is likely one of the reasons @CMJ hasn't seen the spike he was expecting. 

This under count would be spread across the entire four month period.  That means it probably wouldn't be that much of a difference in the curve.  All of the numbers would be higher...the ones in March, April, and May as well.

 

That means the same downward trajectory would be the same now too.  Even if deaths were 28% higher than reported in June (likely), they still would have also been 28% higher previously...which means the death rate is still decreasing.

Edited by CMJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CMJ said:

This under count would be spread across the entire four month period.  That means it probably wouldn't be that much of a difference in the curve.  All of the numbers would be higher...the ones in March, April, and May as well.

 

That means the same downward trajectory would be the same now too.  Even if deaths were 28% higher than reported in June (likely), they still would have also been 28% higher previously...which means the death rate is still decreasing.

You can't assume that, since they didn't cover June and July excess deaths. If they were undercounting up to May, that undercounting would still be missing the potentially increasing excess deaths. Since you don't know the excess deaths for those months - we will never know. Well, not for a few months. There has been pressure to not report as Covid in certain states/counties as it went on longer. 

  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 97and03 said:

In the country where I live, the hospitals are now so full with “pneumonia” patients that they’ve turned away sick people and told them to go home and treat themselves. People who have symptoms can’t get tests. There are ambulance shortages. 30 percent of cases are medical professionals. There are a handful of people starting to die from other diseases because they were turned away from the specialized hospital that treats their problem because it was turned into a Covid or pneumonia ward. 

Those deaths will end up being counted as Covid death in normal administrations. Just like PR hurricane deaths climbed after the storm when they counted the people who died because the hospitals had no power. They didn't die directly from a swell of wind and rain. 

  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. Please review our full Privacy Policy before using our site.