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Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?


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Obviously the real death rate is lower because plenty of people with mild symptoms will never be tested...

 

THAT SAID - the current death rate for this world wide is sitting at 4% and the USA's rate is 1.6% - both are extremely grim if they continue anywhere near those numbers.

Edited by CMJ
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2 hours ago, CMJ said:

Obviously the real death rate is lower because plenty of people with mild symptoms will never be tested...

 

THAT SAID - the current death rate for this world wide is sitting at 4% and the USA's rate is 1.6% - both are extremely grim if they continue anywhere near those numbers.

it should be pointed out that "mild symptoms" were ostensibly established by the Chinese response during the initial Wuhan outbreak and included up to non-life-threatening pneumonia. 

many have discounted the severity of the virus upon hearing 80-90% of cases were "mild:

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16 minutes ago, Censored by Laurie said:

it should be pointed out that "mild symptoms" were ostensibly established by the Chinese response during the initial Wuhan outbreak and included up to non-life-threatening pneumonia. 

many have discounted the severity of the virus upon hearing 80-90% of cases were "mild:

I'm talking about people who wouldn't go to the hospital over it, so obviously it would be mild.  If someone was sick enough to think they had pneumonia, I would think they'd go to a doctor.

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33 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I'm talking about people who wouldn't go to the hospital over it, so obviously it would be mild.  If someone was sick enough to think they had pneumonia, I would think they'd go to a doctor.

I'm more saying it's led to a level of arrogance and disrespect around the actual severity of our situation, the pandemic and it's spread, than speaking to the actual symptoms themselves. 

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Worked another 24 hour shift among millions yesterday.  Everyone seemed to be moving about, going to work and doing their thing.  

Some good news on the research & findings towards a cure and prevention of covid19.

The FDA and CDC hope to have a vaccine within a few weeks or less.

Research using a combination of Chloroquine and Azythromiacin is showing promise in speeding up recovery and possibly a preventative?  

An interesting read on one of the clinical trials on that https://www.covidtrial.io

We may be able to obtain tests readily enough that we’ll be able to test ourselves at home as early as next week?  That would be incredible if the suppliers can pull that off?

We’re gonna get through this.

 

Rick

 

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47 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Worked another 24 hour shift among millions yesterday.  Everyone seemed to be moving about, going to work and doing their thing.  

Some good news on the research & findings towards a cure and prevention of covid19.

The FDA and CDC hope to have a vaccine within a few weeks or less.

Research using a combination of Chloroquine and Azythromiacin is showing promise in speeding up recovery and possibly a preventative?  

An interesting read on one of the clinical trials on that https://www.covidtrial.io

We may be able to obtain tests readily enough that we’ll be able to test ourselves at home as early as next week?  That would be incredible if the suppliers can pull that off?

We’re gonna get through this.

 

Rick

 

Rick, 

Thank you, and the other first respondents for your efforts.

Knox

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I read a couple things the last couple days from scientists/publications that any vaccine will take 12+ months to get to, no matter how much money you throw at it.

I'm actually cautiously optimistic that Rick is right: when the 'want' is there, and we fuel it with necessary funds, humanity can accomplish some amazing things.

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4 hours ago, greenminer said:

I read a couple things the last couple days from scientists/publications that any vaccine will take 12+ months to get to, no matter how much money you throw at it.

I'm actually cautiously optimistic that Rick is right: when the 'want' is there, and we fuel it with necessary funds, humanity can accomplish some amazing things.

Everything I'm hearing from online from scientists in epidemiology/virology is that  12-18 months is probably best case. There are no vaccines yet - there are vaccine candidates, some of which are in early testing. Those have to go through a lot of testing before being proven to be both effective and safe. Then once that happens it has to be produced. Don't expect a vaccine until at least 2021.

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On 3/17/2020 at 8:31 PM, Censored by Laurie said:

it should be pointed out that "mild symptoms" were ostensibly established by the Chinese response during the initial Wuhan outbreak and included up to non-life-threatening pneumonia. 

many have discounted the severity of the virus upon hearing 80-90% of cases were "mild:

As much as I usually disagree with what you post you made one of the most important points about this virus.  Pneumonia is not a "mild" symptom and it is the result of secondary infection from the effects of the virus (as far as I can tell as someone that isn't a medical professional).  Not only that a "mild" case of pneumonia can easily turn into a severe case.   I think our medical system (in the US) will treat pneumonia as a serious symptom and will try to hospitalize most people that have it, but based on what I've seen, that's what they tried in Italy and they are out of hospital beds in the most affected regions. We are going to see some pretty serious triage if this is all accurate.  I hope I'm wrong. Even if you live through the pneumonia the lesions caused by the virus in the lungs causes permanent scarring.  Stay away from people if you can.

@FirefightnRick, keep doing good work and good luck.  I hope the FD has enough PPE to protect you guys.

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With respect to the comments about lasting 12-18 months, I believe that is actually the goal to spread this out over time.  The primary risk, as I understand it, is the spike/surge that puts hospitals and the health care system under stress.  If the impact is spread out over time, then it can be dealt with as we do the normal flu season.  This is the "flatten the curve" objective.  Could be wrong, but I don't think they mean what's going on now (shutdowns, shelter in place, etc.) is going to last 12-18 months, but that the virus will be around in some form or fashion for 12-18 months and at lower active case numbers can be managed.

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12 minutes ago, keith said:

With respect to the comments about lasting 12-18 months, I believe that is actually the goal to spread this out over time.  The primary risk, as I understand it, is the spike/surge that puts hospitals and the health care system under stress.  If the impact is spread out over time, then it can be dealt with as we do the normal flu season.  This is the "flatten the curve" objective.  Could be wrong, but I don't think they mean what's going on now (shutdowns, shelter in place, etc.) is going to last 12-18 months, but that the virus will be around in some form or fashion for 12-18 months and at lower active case numbers can be managed.

The British report more or less argued to close everything down for 12-18 months.  

 

 

Quote

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.

 

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18 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Hopefully officials in the U.S. come to the decision that that extreme is not necessary here in the majority of the country.

 

Rick.

I don't think we can go that extreme long term either - but we'll have to accept a larger death toll than would normally be acceptable.

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