Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[FirefightnRick]

24 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

I'm old enough to remember when Rick absolutely lost his ish at Obama when literally one guy died from Ebola a few years back. I guess 30,000 people when the president has a R next to his name doesn't quite incite the same disappointment in his leaders. 

Another fabricated zinger from your wild imagination.  

And I’m still waiting to see where Trump told citizens to take up arms against their state governments?

 

Rick

[kingwoodgreen]

8 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

Just looking for rational thought and no attacks. But if that is true and understand the premise. What can be said about China’s largest cities (very dense) each having less than 10 deaths each. This is per John Hopkins. These type of numbers seem so out of wack even if we are getting the most accurate info that they deem to provide. We all have to process the info out there and this one has me unable to resolve without going down some rabbit holes. I can go there but only after all other possibilities are at least on the table. Not really been seeing this discussed as if it a taboo subject. 

[Coach Andy Mac]

2 hours ago, kingwoodgreen said:

Just looking for rational thought and no attacks. But if that is true and understand the premise. What can be said about China’s largest cities (very dense) each having less than 10 deaths each. This is per John Hopkins. These type of numbers seem so out of wack even if we are getting the most accurate info that they deem to provide. We all have to process the info out there and this one has me unable to resolve without going down some rabbit holes. I can go there but only after all other possibilities are at least on the table. Not really been seeing this discussed as if it a taboo subject. 

China clearly lied

[Censored by Laurie]

3 hours ago, kingwoodgreen said:

Just looking for rational thought and no attacks. But if that is true and understand the premise. What can be said about China’s largest cities (very dense) each having less than 10 deaths each. This is per John Hopkins. These type of numbers seem so out of wack even if we are getting the most accurate info that they deem to provide. We all have to process the info out there and this one has me unable to resolve without going down some rabbit holes. I can go there but only after all other possibilities are at least on the table. Not really been seeing this discussed as if it a taboo subject. 

A. and probably most importantly, I agree with Andy Mac below...China is undoubtedly under-reporting their numbers. 

but, at least to this specific point...ignoring that point 1 and point 2 a very different...and not taking into consideration different cultural norms and authoritarian governmental responses

B.  Chinese cities are not very dense. New York City has a population density of around 27,500 people/square mile. Los Angeles around 8,100...San Francisco around 19,000

Shanghai is around 9,900...Beijing and Tianjin about 3,400...Chongquin, which is the largest single incorporated city center in the world only has a population density of around 960 people/sq mile. Denton is has about 1300/sq mile. 

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

What has this thread turned into😂 man 

Also, it’s really ignorant that people say Trump caused this virus🤷🏼‍♂️

[MCMLXXX]

1 hour ago, Censored by Laurie said:

B.  Chinese cities are not very dense. New York City has a population density of around 27,500 people/square mile. Los Angeles around 8,100...San Francisco around 19,000

Shanghai is around 9,900...Beijing and Tianjin about 3,400...Chongquin, which is the largest single incorporated city center in the world only has a population density of around 960 people/sq mile. Denton is has about 1300/sq mile. 

This source rebuts your statement. Shanghai 34,728, Beijing 29,287, Shenzhen 44,464, Tianjin 27,158, Shenyang 24,013, Dalian 18,310,  and no US city on list.  "In the United States we don't actually know anything about real overcrowding."  It appears your NYC number comes from a Wikipedia list that refers to Manhattan only.

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2019/07/11/the-50-most-densely-populated-cities-in-the-world/39664445/

Edited April 18, 2020 by MCMLXXX

[FirefightnRick]

I’m still looking at the Philippines.

With an over crowded city like Manila and its density at 107,500 ppl per sq mile the entire country only has 5,878 cases and 387 deaths.

 

Rick

[FirefightnRick]

In early March Italy transferred patients who were positive for Covid-19 from hospitals to Nursing Homes? 😳

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/italy-covid-19-outbreak-lessons-1.5517520

Quote

"We should have immediately set up separate structures exclusively for people sick with coronavirus. I recommend the rest of the world do this, to not send COVID patients into health-care facilities that are still uninfected."

'Like throwing a lit match onto a haystack'

Already, Italian cities in other regions are doing this, as well as field hospitals in Milan and Bergamo, Lombardy, which are almost complete.

However, the virus was not only spread to "clean" — i.e. infection-free — hospitals by admitting positive patients. In early March, as the number of infected was doubling every few days, authorities allowed overwhelmed hospitals to transfer those who tested positive but weren't gravely ill into assisted-living facilities for the elderly.

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[keith]

9 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

I’m still looking at the Philippines.

With an over crowded city like Manila and its density at 107,500 ppl per sq mile the entire country only has 5,878 cases and 387 deaths.

 

Rick

India is another interesting data point.  Population approaching 1.4 billion, yet under 15K confirmed cases and under 500 deaths.  Who knows if this data is accurate, but it's all we have to work with.  I've been to India three times in my career.  Each time we went the international business travel company we used loaded all of us up with hydroxychloroquine and z-paks and a crap load of shots as prophylactics.  Do Indians routinely take HCQ or some other anti-malaria drug?  Is it the heat?  Wonderful people, but it's not like social-distancing is built into their society. 

[CMJ]

10 minutes ago, keith said:

India is another interesting data point.  Population approaching 1.4 billion, yet under 15K confirmed cases and under 500 deaths.  Who knows if this data is accurate, but it's all we have to work with.  I've been to India three times in my career.  Each time we went the international business travel company we used loaded all of us up with hydroxychloroquine and z-paks and a crap load of shots as prophylactics.  Do Indians routinely take HCQ or some other anti-malaria drug?  Is it the heat?  Wonderful people, but it's not like social-distancing is built into their society. 

Though I do doubt their numbers are so low, it must be pointed out the country is currently on a more stringent lockdown than the USA is.

[keith]

6 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Though I do doubt their numbers are so low, it must be pointed out the country is currently on a more stringent lockdown than the USA is.

That's what we are told...but India did not begin their "lockdown" until March 26th.  If the virus has been circulating as early as many now believe, it was in India long before any lockdown could help.  Many, many, many Indians live under tarps along the side of the road.  I don't know how effective a lockdown can really be in places like Bangaluru, Mumbai, New Delhi, etc.  Maybe they are all sick and dying at home or wherever they live.  Again, we won't know the full impact for some time.  

[CMJ]

11 minutes ago, keith said:

That's what we are told...but India did not begin their "lockdown" until March 26th.  If the virus has been circulating as early as many now believe, it was in India long before any lockdown could help.  Many, many, many Indians live under tarps along the side of the road.  I don't know how effective a lockdown can really be in places like Bangaluru, Mumbai, New Delhi, etc.  Maybe they are all sick and dying at home or wherever they live.  Again, we won't know the full impact for some time.  

True, they got hit hardest with the H1N1 too, and it was a couple of years before we had good numbers for them.

[greenminer]

Preliminary study out of North Cal/Stanford reveals, yes, case count could be MUCH higher than we think. The next consideration has to be that COVID19 is not as lethal as we thought.

still needs to be peer reviewed.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298

[FirefightnRick]

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

Preliminary study out of North Cal/Stanford reveals, yes, case count could be MUCH higher than we think. The next consideration has to be that COVID19 is not as lethal as we thought.

still needs to be peer reviewed.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298

 

Quote

Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods?

Great question.

 

Rick

Edited April 18, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[FirefightnRick]

 

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

 

Quote

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

 

 

Rick

Edited April 18, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[Quoner]

6 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

 

 

 

Rick

Oh shit... those words got real big real fast, so just in case you didn't make it further...

 

“This appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead,” Britta Jewell of Imperial College and her colleagues wrote in their Annals paper. But the IHME model “rests on the likely incorrect assumption that effects of social distancing policies are the same everywhere.” Because U.S. policies are looser than those elsewhere, largely due to inconsistency between states, U.S. deaths could remain at higher levels longer than they did in China, in particular.

[CMJ]

It's already been more deadly than the common flu in several European countries with mitigation efforts.  I think it is more than likely the cases have been under reported yes...but it is still way more deadly than an average flu.  If we hadn't done the mitigation we'd definitely have a higher number.  How much higher?  Hard to know.  I guess if cases start exploding in 3-4 weeks in states like Florida that are relaxing measures, we'll see.

[FirefightnRick]

4 minutes ago, Quoner said:

Oh shit... those words got real big real fast, so just in case you didn't make it further...

 

“This appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead,” Britta Jewell of Imperial College and her colleagues wrote in their Annals paper. But the IHME model “rests on the likely incorrect assumption that effects of social distancing policies are the same everywhere.” Because U.S. policies are looser than those elsewhere, largely due to inconsistency between states, U.S. deaths could remain at higher levels longer than they did in China, in particular.

 

Oh shit what?  I read it and that statement doesn’t change the point of the author’s opinion.

 

Rick 

[FirefightnRick]

Just now, CMJ said:

It's already been more deadly than the common flu in several European countries with mitigation efforts.  I think it is more than likely the cases have been under reported yes...but it is still way more deadly than an average flu.  If we hadn't done the mitigation we'd definitely have a higher number.  How much higher?  Hard to know.  I guess if cases start exploding in 3-4 weeks in states like Florida that are relaxing measures, we'll see.

 

I’ve never even played an epidemiologist on TV but even I know it would be a catastrophically dumbass decision to place slightly ill people who also tested positive for Cov-19 in nursing homes like Italy did.

 

 

Rick

[CMJ]

12 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

I’ve never even played an epidemiologist on TV but even I know it would be a catastrophically dumbass decision to place slightly ill people who also tested positive for Cov-19 in nursing homes like Italy did.

 

 

Rick

Spain and Belgium have more deaths per million than Italy.  France and Great Britain are currently still having more deaths per day when adjusting for population than we are.  Germany, long the source of people who said "It's not that bad" when their death was at 0.4% now has a rate over 2%

Edited April 18, 2020 by CMJ

[FirefightnRick]

3 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Spain and Belgium have more deaths per million than Italy.  France and Great Britain are currently still having more deaths per day when adjusting for population than we are.  Germany, long the source of people who said "It's not that bad" when their death was at 0.4% now has a rate over 2%

 

And yet fact after fact is pointing towards that this looks more and more like it will be no worse than a bad flu season, only worse because we’ve placed 17-20 million people in unemployment as an intentional, direct result.

 

 

Rick

 

 

[CMJ]

17 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

And yet fact after fact is pointing towards that this looks more and more like it will be no worse than a bad flu season, only worse because we’ve placed 17-20 million people in unemployment as an intentional, direct result.

 

 

Rick

 

 

Maybe for us...but not for them.  Their death totals are all trending much larger than normal flu years.  WITH mitigation.  Hence why ours would also likely be much higher as well.

Edited April 18, 2020 by CMJ

[Quoner]

44 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

Oh shit what?  I read it and that statement doesn’t change the point of the author’s opinion.

 

Rick 

The article is about how the data we are using to make decisions - all decisions is flawed. We need to rethink and remodel to know more, then they dive into a pretty detailed explanation of the mathematical models and issues in play. It was a great read and I am glad you posted it. 

However, you then used an out of context quote that is not from the author to prove that it is time to make a different policy decision that you agree with. You're doing the exact thing the article is criticizing, but harder and different.

So, best case scenario, the big words lost ya and you made an honest mistake. Worst case scenario, you're just sort of intentionally misleading and combative and never quite made it past the way you saw someone else tweet or share this because Statistical modeling is not really an interest of yours or something you typically read up on. 

[FirefightnRick]

2 hours ago, Quoner said:

However, you then used an out of context quote that is not from the author....

 

Where? Show me what I placed in the quote box how it isn’t in the article and I’ll correct it.

 

Rick

[Quoner]

1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

Where? Show me what I placed in the quote box how it isn’t in the article and I’ll correct it.

 

Rick

You nailed the cut and pasting of the quote. 10/10. 

It's understanding the full article that seems to be just dangling out of your reach.