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Is 8 Wins/Year Littrell's Ceiling Here?


MGNation92
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I honestly believe Seth is a great coach, but after 3 years, I'm convinced he's not elite, mainly because we never win the games we need to win. Often, in those games we are embarrassed and/or don't play well at all.

I'm not going to complain with 7-8 wins a year because its consistent success that we haven't seen in a long time, but until Littrell starts winning the MUST WIN games, I can't trust him as a coach to really hit that elite level.We should be so much better than we've shown the last 4 weeks, but we are shitting the bed again, just like the last 3 years. 

2016 - UTEP to hit 6-6(got bailed out by our APR), Army

2017 - FAU x2, Troy

2018 - LaTech, UAB, probably our bowl game this year.

I guess the silver lining is that if he keeps losing the must win games, we might hang on to him longer, but are we really going to be happy with this kind of success? I recall a conversation on the board about some people that prefer 8 wins a year type team, and others preferring the few mediocre years with a 12-1 type season. At this point are we happy with 8 wins a year? Because it looks like Littrell hits his ceiling at that point.

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11 minutes ago, MeanGreenFan94 said:

100% agree. Seth is not winning the big games but this is a lot better than where we used to be.

Action items from here on or next year for me would be...

1. New OL coach gotta change things up

2. Consider moving on with Graham as play caller and let Littrell call the plays

 

I agree and support 1 & 2. Litrell seems too buddy/buddy to hand out pink slips. So if he doesn't want to do that then fine, but things need to be changed up. And I'm not ungrateful for where we are. 5 or 6 years ago I posted on this forum ad nauseam about expectations being the life blood of any program worth a damn. We have expectations as a fan base and this staff and admin instilled them. 

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Litrell is building success here, look how are recruiting is improving and they will help to build a stronger teams.  We better hope we have a replacement for Fine after next year. He is rare qb and we were lucky to have him on our team.

I think we hit eight wins this year in the regular season.

We beat Rice and ODU

We lose to FAU and UTSA (hate to say it).  How can they lose with that new cannon.

At this point I not sure if we get to a bowl or can we beat anyone in a bowl game.

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3 minutes ago, Huff said:

A few of old farts find it really funny that we are grumbling about a coach who might win only eight games per year.  

Lol...the get off my lawn bunch.the bunch that will bask in 8 wins in celebratory fashion only because, "you don't know what it WAS like". Yada yada yada. W/L, the manner in which you lose to and who it is you lose to matters regardless of the end result. But we need to be fans longer for a shitty era to REALLY appreciate the "magnitude" of 6-2. Am I missing anything? 

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As for the title. If you'd a said 9 wins instead of 8 you might have an argument. I would still disagree, but I'd be an argument. For 8 it isn't

a) Littrell already won 9 last season, so above 8-win ceiling

b) he still has 5 games left in order to get to 9 or ten this season. If the losses indeed are just LaT, UAB and bowl game that is still 10 wins, a loss to  FAU would still make it 9.

c) I think this game is just another indicator of what the folks who always harped on recruiting kinda meant: He outperformed evaluation and development at the skill positions, but it came home to roost on the OLine. The good news is, that this is the first season where the worm really seems to turn on recruiting. It may take two or three years until that is fully implemented, but I think he is doing what he needs to there.

d) this and last years teams may still be similar - as in struggling against the same kind of team (physically imposing rather than speed/finesse) - but they do so in fairly different ways. I mean, if you told me before the season that through 8 games NT never gives up 30 points, I would have assumed that they are 7-1 at worst, which indicates that the problems are not fully the same as last season, which in turn indicates that the staff can find answers for all of the problems.

All of this doesn't mean I don't also have some serious concerns and questions about SL, but for most of them we cannot tell yet and right now is too early to already stick a ceiling on him. The primary concern is that he is already paid as if he wins 8-9 every season as a baseline, so he cannot really afford to slip.

Edited by outoftown
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It really just blows my mind that people can be sitting on their couch and these are the thoughts that come to mind about the state of the program right now.  Being upset about losses we should have won is one thing, but to make completely irrational points like this is just dumb. 

Losing sucks, no matter how it happens, but based on some of the reactions I have seen here unless we go 14-0 every single year heads should roll, our coaches aren't ready for big time, our players aren't ready for big time, etc.  Losses will happen, bad play calls will happen, mistakes will happen.  Unless we become Alabama overnight we can pretty much assume all of the above will continue to happen, there's a reason very few teams lose 1 or less games throughout a season. 

If you think you are disappointed right now, consider who is probably 10x more upset than you, the coaches and players who just went through these tough games.  I believe in our coaches and our players and realize everything won't be perfect all the time, and I know they are going to do their best to make sure these things don't happen again.  It's a great time to be a UNT football fan right now, but some of you guys are making us look like a bunch of spoiled children.  If you want to be angry I get it, I don't think anybody is happy after yesterday but at least come up with some constructive criticism and not dumb "the world is ending" posts like this please.

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2 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Good lord!

100% don’t agree.

The wins are one thing.  The culture is a whole other thing.

Look at the quality of coaches and players he’s brought in.  Look at their attitude and the classhe’s about to sign.

Coach Littrell is in only his third season as a head coach.  He’s still learning and has surpassed anything anyone ever imagined he would become at this point.

Your not  paying attention my friend.

 

Rick

What Rick said

 

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Does everyone have that short of a memory? Mason Fine coughs up the ball to lose the New Orleans Bowl when we were just starting to show something. Same thing happens against UAB and he losses the game. In DMNS he says losses hurt, but it is apparent after the first loss the losses come easier. Count on 2 or 3 more this year. Second half reminded me of Dodge era teams. Fine may be setting records, but I saw Steve Ramsey and he is no Steve Ramsey. Season is lost. Let our young QBs and Quinn play. Quinn is at least mobile and a threat to run. Others have height and won't have the ball batted back in their face as Fine often does. In Fine's defense he has played hurt since La Tech, but other teams know this. They blitz because they know he can't run. They force him out of the pocket where he is no threat on the sprint out. True he has heart but that won't help him grow. Time to see what the bigger QB's can do. As of now there is nothing to lose, the season ended last night.

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21 minutes ago, NorthTexan95 said:

Define big games.  I think you're doing some amazing cherry picking.

2016: Consider the awful roster Seth had his first season and the fact he was starting a true freshman QB, I'd consider the Rice OT game, the road win at Army, and the Southern Miss game as huge.  We lost the bowl game to Army in OT with Fine out with an injury.   This roster had no business winning 5 games but they did due to the coaching.

2017: UAB, @USM, @LaTech, Army ... they were all big game wins.  We were outclassed by FAU and Troy but we were still a very young team that won more than anyone should have expected. 

2018:  Arkansas and USM were both big games.  

How well does the team do in close games?

In games decided by 8 points or less, under Seth we are 8-3.

Stop the cherry picking. 

 

Many of the games you posted were not what most would call big games. You just named half of our season's games

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