Jump to content

Do stars matter in recruiting? The data says they do


Harry

Recommended Posts

Put any coach in front of a microphone and ask him if stars matter and he’ll probably say one or all of the following:

“We don’t look at that stuff.”
“We trust our own evaluations.”
“Give me a 5-star heart any day.”

College football coaches are a pathologically competitive lot and recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport, but they don’t care about recruiting rankings?

Look at it this way: You could build a pretty solid roster of NFL players taken in the fifth round or beyond, but you’d be nuts to take that roster over a roster of first-round picks.

Being a 5-star recruit in and of itself guarantees you nothing, but in the aggregate, a 5-star is much more likely to succeed at the college level than a 2-star.

Don’t ask me, ask the data.

read more:

http://footballscoop.com/news/stars-matter-recruiting-data-says/

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think there is any question the 4/5 star players are generally the players with the most "potential". The thing with the rating system that drives me crazy is the way a kid can go from a 3 down to a 2, or bump from a 2 to a 3 based on the school he commits to.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

I don't think there is any question the 4/5 star players are generally the players with the most "potential". The thing with the rating system that drives me crazy is the way a kid can go from a 3 down to a 2, or bump from a 2 to a 3 based on the school he commits to.  

I agree and think that the rating system is getting better and better below the 4/5 star level because of the amount of exposure these young men are not receiving in summer camps, 7 on 7 play, etc...  I also still believe that at our level, you still have to wait 4 or 5 years to truly evaluate each class.  As the average rating increases, this need will go away, but until we are routinely signing players rated in the high .80's then we will need to always look back when they graduate.  I mean our leading receiver was a walk-on and the conference player of the year only had one FBS offer.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

Of course they matter. That's why everyone is getting excited on this board here, is it not? The naysayers will white knuckle clinch to their horrible opinion for the reason of beaten dog syndrome, but facts are facts. Stars matter, 2-3-4-5, they all matter. 

Bet you can't find what these guys were all "rated" before our offer... sure it's cool but I'm more concerned with the fact we're beating out multiple 6+ FBS schools for recruits.  This staff can identify and evaluate talent prior to that talent blowing up.  But some people will always find some reason to itch and gritch

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, GMG24 said:

Bet you can't find what these guys were all "rated" before our offer... sure it's cool but I'm more concerned with the fact we're beating out multiple 6+ FBS schools for recruits.  This staff can identify and evaluate talent prior to that talent blowing up.  But some people will always find some reason to itch and gritch

I'm not bitching. 

Offers and stars are synonymous. And please spare me the BS outlier you're already thinking about trying to dig up. 

Identifying and landing are not synonymous. Have to do both. We haven't been. We are now. 

To the point, it's cool (like you said) because stars matter. 

  • Upvote 3
  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The stars reflect someone's evaluation of a player.  If you trust that person's ability to evaluate talent then stars matter.  You hope though, that our coaches, being professionals, trust their own evaluations more & don't rely on the judgement of someone outside the coaching profession.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's an interesting article. I did notice, that they only looked at how those players did with the NFL if going to a power 5 school. I do wonder how being at a G5 school impacts players draft chances. Is there a possibility that 80-85 players actually do better in terms of NFL if at G5s?

Edited by outoftown
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think on an individual basis, starts can be be very misleading.  There are plenty of multiple star players being both good and bad, as well as were star players as well.

 

Stars matter much more when you're talking about a class as a whole.  The more kids, with more stars, that you can get into your program, the general theory is the better you will be.  This is due to the ability to miss on a kid or two and not have it hinder your program.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Green Crazy said:

this year they do!!! 😉

Exactly!! Whereas last couple of years all the articles were about how many two stars got drafted!

 

We just need to keep donating and they just need to keep winning games.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the individual player level, stars matter less.  Meaning you will always be able to pull examples of Stars that were wrong (better and worse than their Star ranking), and Stars that were right (Higher star players that are good, and lower rated players that aren't as good).  When looking at a large group however, it gives a much better indication of the overall talent being brought in.  Of course there will always be exceptions at the individual level, but there will be fewer Classes of players that are wrong.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a simple yes or no.

Stars are important in that they reflect the general consensus on various recruits. However, as in poker, even the best hole cards lose sometimes, and what you do with your cards is almost as important as what you hold.  So, yes, I would rather than pocket aces versus 2-7 offsuit, but sometimes the aces lose even to the worst hands. Sometimes, 5 stars flop because of attitude or other issues and sometimes 1 and 2 star recruits end up playing in the NFL....but overall, I would take 4 or 5 stars over 1 or 2 stars given a choice.

  • Lovely Take 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. Please review our full Privacy Policy before using our site.