Good McNulty/Bad McNulty

[Aldo]

McNulty has been named the starter, so I'll be rooting for him to succeed. What should we expect from him? I'll use this post to talk about what he does well, and what he needs to work on to be successful in his second year as a prolonged starter. 

It's basically an exercise in hoping for the best. He's our QB now, so we gotta throw support behind him, to the chagrin of many.

McNulty's Inconsistencies

McNulty is probably the most divisive player on this forum. I hear a lot of comments about McNulty and his inability to move the offense, and his lack of arm.

I won't argue these statements.

These concerns are well founded and based on fact. He struggled in 2014 to move the offense. His numbers were poor in comparison to conference mates. But some of these concerns might be overblown, and not entirely his fault.

I think what jumps out at me the most that is entirely on McNulty - and what I have been harping on - is inconsistency. One moment he'll make a great play downfield, or move the chains with his legs. In the next drive, he'll overthrow a sitting receiver, or won't see the open man. That's up to him to fix.

If he is able to reduce his inconsistencies, and correct issues, he could potentially make the jump from bad QB to an average CUSA QB. But it will take the help of his WRs, o-line, and Canales (we'll get to that later).

Now that he has been announced as starter, let's take a look at some tape. The hope is to look for what McNulty can reinforce, correct, and use in 2014 - a more Good McNulty than a Bad McNulty.

But it's all based on the hope that he can make the leap.

Good McNulty

First we'll take a look at some Good McNulty.

The next few GIFs are taken from the UTSA vs UNT game last year. 

In this play, UNT is running a 12 personnel set in the shotgun. The RG is immediately beat, and every receiver is covered as the DT is bearing down on him, including the dump off to the RB. McNulty tucks and runs to the right, baits the DE to outside, then turns upfield. If he continues to run, he will be lucky to make it back to the LOS before he encounters the first defender.

McNulty still has the ball tucked, but keeps his eyes downfield. He spots the open receiver one on one down the sideline and chucks it to an open spot over 40 yards downfield. Here begs the question, because he had to sling it off balance, did he not have a chance to aim? Or did his arm strength prevent him from throwing the receiver in stride? I'm going with: he reacted, he didn't have the time to gauge the receiver's position and speed to be accurate, and was able to just throw it where only the receiver could get to it (but I understand that it could be just plain arm strength). Regardless, it's a heads up play that kept the chains moving, and a play he had to make several times due to pass protection issues that lingered all season.

This is an example of where McNulty can prevail if he doesn't stop to think.

This next clip is of the game vs FAU (ugh I know).

Again a 12 personnel formation with 2 WRs on the far side of the field, and Marcus Smith stacked up (from the looks of it) as an H-back behind the TE on the near side. McNulty drops back in an extremely clean pocket. Smith beats the safety, and McNulty digs the ball out of his hip and drops the pass over the safety and LB in a spot where only Smith can grab it. 

He is comfortable in the pocket, drops back in rhythm, decisive in his throw, and doesn't hesitate.

In many plays throughout the season, McNulty has shown that he can successfully be an aggressive gunslinger. But many plays throughout a game become offset due to inconsistency mentioned above and issues mentioned later.

Baaad McNulty

Now let's take a look at some of the issues that plagued him last season.

This clip versus Rice is a combination of McNulty's error, and playcalling. In fact, I saw many playcalling issues in the Rice game that I had to add a section just for it.

UNT is in a five wide empty set, trips left on third and short. Rice is sitting in what looks like a dime defense. What McNulty does well is release the pass in rhythm at the top of his drop back. What he doesn't do well is he stares down Harris the entire time he is dropping back, waiting for the moment he gets open. The DB reads it the entire way, and McNulty's pass is off-target, hitting the DB in the numbers. Not good.

I will comment on the fact that the play had  the trips receivers running right at the DBs as some sort of downfield screen pick play, so all the DB covering the middle of the field had to do was trot right over and cut Harris' route. Here's the thing though, Harris slowed down on his route. This makes me think that he was supposed to sit on the route closer to the numbers to keep some space between he and the DB, and let the blockers downfield clear a way for him, while McNulty should've passed the ball immediately. So I think what happened was, it should have been a downfield screen, while McNulty thought it was a dig because Harris drifted instead of sat. Miscue.

Here's a clip of McNulty's hesitation/indecision. Five wide empty set on 1st down. Rice is in a dime package.

Although the O-line falters after a few seconds, it's enough time for McNulty to look/stare left and immediately throw Caldwell on the numbers, or Terrell low for a short gain. Let them use their own skills to get extra yardage. There's hesitation since the DBs are just sitting on the routes, but Caldwell created enough room after making the corner turn his hips upfield. McNulty's one second hesitation led to all receivers being covered, and McNulty sacked

Playcalling and Teammates

Here's some "in defense of" talk. After looking at some highlights of opposing teams, it's just not all McNulty's fault.

Many plays were designed to move the ball far down field, even on 1st and 10.

In this next clip, UNT is third and very long with less than 50 seconds left at end of the first half with no timeouts at Rice's 45. UNT is in 10 personnel shotgun formation with trips bunched left. Rice is again in dime (every damn time!). McNulty is hit in 3 seconds, which is still enough time to get a pass off.

Except no one is open. Everyone begins their route downfield. What ends this play quickly is the fact the RB breaks his protection and doesn't bump the DT on his way upfield, leaving the DT to just eat McNulty unencumbered. Terrell runs a delay on his route and the inside receiver runs a corner route, leaving Harris to break free on a post route. By the time this happens, though, McNulty is bracing for impact. Even if McNulty had been able to have 1-2 more seconds of a clean pocket, Harris would have been triple covered by the ball's arrival.

What am I getting at? You're ahead a TD, you're 21 yards away from a first down, no timeouts. Get into field goal range. You're (Canales) allowing too much time for a play to develop downfield when your QB has been getting pressured, hit, and sacked all game. Get some yards, hurry it up and kick a field goal and increase your lead by two scores.

This next, and last one (I promise) is a combo of playcalling and WR play. UNT is in 11 personnel, shotgun, 3 wide. 2nd and 10 UNT is on their own 44ish. I think Rice is in nickel.

What Canales has been trying to do is clear out the middle of the field this game, which he has been doing successfully, but it's taking too long.

The TE eats up 3 defenders downfield, leaving Terrell and the slot receiver one on one on the near side. The RB goes into the far side flat, taking a LB.

Two things happen. Terrell is supposed to be left open underneath on his dig route. He rounds out his route, though, which allows the CB who was 5 yards away easily cut him off. The second thing that happens is that when the RB hits the flat, the X receiver (Harris?) runs a curl route, I guess, stutter stepping his way 5 yards up field. He doesn't explode off the line - was he trying to pick the LB covering the RB? Either way, he's covered by both the corner on top, and then the LB underneath. 

There's nowhere for McNulty to go, and by the time anything develops, it's too late. Knowing that the other receivers where clearing the middle, and with the CB 7 yards off Terrell on 2nd & 10, I think Terrell should have been given a slant route for a quick short gain.

Final Thoughts

There are plenty of more examples for both sides of McNulty, including playcalling and WR play, but this is getting way longer than I expected.

My takeaway here is, if McNulty can improve on his decision-making and hesitance, it could offset deficiencies in playcalling and WR play, but ultimately the coach needs to call better plays, and WRs need to get open.

Only Harris and Smiley are starting from last years group, we have the addition of Goree, and we've got Thaddeus (awesome name) and Khan (ditto) on the two deep. Hopefully with one more offseason under their belt, the WRs' route running is improved. I also hope that this uptempo offense will change the way Canales calls plays. I also hope that the pass protection improves.

Nickel and diming the defense (pun intended?) doesn't mean you're going to get stacked boxes, as shown by Rice. UNT's desire to go 5 wide often on early downs really hurt them. McNulty's arm can make enough plays 35-45 yards downfield. I'm not concerned about that. Call plays that get the ball out of his hands at the end of his drop, and receivers beat coverage. Use our awesome RBs (Wilson>>>>>>>Prescott Line). 

If that happens, McNulty's play is something that won't be the reason the season falters. Cater to his aggressive gunslinger mentality. He can fit the ball in those tight windows. We seen it.

I'm rooting for Big Mick to lead us through the Golden Arcs...

[adman]

Nicely done. Thanks for that. I really do enjoy all of you guys @Aldo, @BillySee58, @Cooley, @aztecskin and others that take the time to break things down and have genuine discussion on the good and the bad of things. 

 

Go Mean Green. 

Edited September 9, 2015 by adman

[Aldo]

Anything to procrastinate at work.

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

Anything to procrastinate at work.

Thats why I am here!

[MeanGreenTexan]

Whoa Aldo!   Very nice!  

Although, there were not enough gifs of Harris' go routes coming to complete stops or him coming back 5-10yds for underthrown balls... or way overthrowing Marcus Smith when he finds seams or soft spots in the opponents' zones.  Too many of those.

I'm pulling for McNulty to prove everyone wrong.  
If he's going to start this year, I'm hoping to not see DaMarcus at all... because that would mean McNulty has failed.

[Aldo]

Although, there were not enough gifs of Harris' go routes coming to complete stops or him coming back 5-10yds for underthrown balls... or way overthrowing Marcus Smith when he finds seams or soft spots in the opponents' zones.  Too many of those.

Very true. It was more about the lack of The Youtubes providing enough opponent highlights. (I'm looking at you Southern Miss, Florida, UTSA. Get a good athletic department already. Unless you're on vine or snapchat). There was definitely Bad McNulty to show from those games, but I could only mention in passing comments.

[MeanGreenHoops]

Well done @Aldo. The armchair analyst in my head says McNulty needs two things to vastly improve, quicker decisions with the ball (experience hopefully) and more receivers getting open (experience and hopefully improved talent). It's possible both of those happen this year.

[Got5onIt]

Very nice writeup.

 

The only thing that gives a me super, duper, extremely small, atom sized ray of hope is the fact AM will not have to look over his shoulder or try to play beyond his capability to prove to Mac he deserves a shot at starting. He was the 3rd QB going into last season. Since last season ended, he was the consensus front runner and won the job going into week 1. He's the undisputed number 1 and will get every opportunity to stay there.  Hopefully, this allows him to focus more on his play and possible improvement.....

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

in the first GIF of BAAAAD McNulty the clip against Rice.  If McNulty steps up and scrambles out to his right he can get to the sticks to keep the drive alive.  Thats what i want to see more of from him this year.  We cant make him what he is not.  Which is a pocket passer.

He is a runner first.  And i say that loosely because he really isnt great at that either.  But keep plays alive with his feet and our receivers can get open  

[Aldo]

in the first GIF of BAAAAD McNulty the clip against Rice.  If McNulty steps up and scrambles out to his right he can get to the sticks to keep the drive alive.  Thats what i want to see more of from him this year.  We cant make him what he is not.  Which is a pocket passer.

He is a runner first.  And i say that loosely because he really isnt great at that either.  But keep plays alive with his feet and our receivers can get open  

He's not an agile runner by any means, but he can be sneaky.

He could have taken off, but in his eyes, he had an easy first down pass. We don't want AM to have the mentality to take off at the first sign of distress.

But you bring up a good point. McNulty can shoot through a hole, and where he doesn't have to create space for himself.

 

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

honestly it does no good to get open deep he cant throw it that far.  But the receiver does have the advantage to an under thrown ball IF he see's that it is under thrown first.

He's not an agile runner by any means, but he can be sneaky.

He could have taken off, but in his eyes, he had an easy first down pass. We don't want AM to have the mentality to take off at the first sign of distress.

But you bring up a good point. McNulty can shoot through a hole, and where he doesn't have to create space for himself.

 

Maybe not take off on every play.. But it was 3rd and 4 on that play and there is plenty of room for him to get the 4 needed plus the top side receiver could have blocked the corner.  Honestly his legs may have a higher percentage of getting the short yardage than his arm

[GOMG2013]

in the first GIF of BAAAAD McNulty the clip against Rice.  If McNulty steps up and scrambles out to his right he can get to the sticks to keep the drive alive.  Thats what i want to see more of from him this year.  We cant make him what he is not.  Which is a pocket passer.

He is a runner first.  And i say that loosely because he really isnt great at that either.  But keep plays alive with his feet and our receivers can get open  

mcnulty was hurt in the first half of the rice game.  That rib injury lingered until the last game.  I'm sure that affected his running and scrambling...pretty sure the playcalling too.

[Aldo]

mcnulty was hurt in the first half of the rice game.  That rib injury lingered until the last game.  I'm sure that affected his running and scrambling...pretty sure the playcalling too.

Yeah playcalling. Here's what I think is a designed QB draw, since you've got a lineman blocking several yards downfield, and Terrell run blocking as well. O-line didn't help him much that day.

Almost looked like a sack.

[jdennis82]

 

Final Thoughts

My takeaway here is, if McNulty can improve on his decision-making and hesitance, it could offset deficiencies in playcalling and WR play, but ultimately the coach needs to call better plays, and WRs need to get open.

 

Agree completely.

Your assessment aligns with my position that until I see a lack of improvement from him, I will choose to believe the word out of camp that the changes made to the offense and a full offseason with a clear leg up on the QB competition bode well for a better McNulty in 2015.

While not an apples to apples comparison, I am reminded of Grandland's article about T. Boykin's improvement from 2013 to 2014

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-college-football-preview-tcu-horned-frogs-trevone-boykin-qb-star-heisman-playoff/

Compared to 2013, last year’s attack generated a significant increase in passing plays of at least 20 yards (63, up from 35) and tripled the number of 40-yarders (18, up from six). As a team, the 2014 Frogs averaged 8.0 yards per pass (up from 6.5) and 13.0 yards per completion (up from 11.3), incremental gains that add up to huge yields over the course of 40 attempts per game. Boykin ranked among the top 10 passers nationally in passing plays of at least 20 yards (58), 30 yards (28), and 40 yards (16).

As I said, the comparisons is not completely clean but the new offensive approach being installed hopefully caters to McNulty and the plan to get the ball quickly in the hands of our playmakers.

[GreenTexan13]

Anything to procrastinate at work.

That's why I'm on here as often as I am.

[greenit]

There were naysayers initially about the back shoulder throw until people proved it could be effective. 

The back ankle throw that Canales taught DT, and now AM, will be the wave of the future soon. Impossible to defend.

Of course it also proves impossible to catch at times, but let's not nitpick. 

[All About UNT]

 

 

[aztecskin]

The thing about hesitation/ decisiveness  -- 

You'll notice the first hesitation throw came in the second quarter and the pick where he stared down Carlos came in the 3rd. Figure he got grilled for it and then subsequently came out and tossed a pick. 

 

 

[Aldo]

The thing about hesitation/ decisiveness  -- 

You'll notice the first hesitation throw came in the second quarter and the pick where he stared down Carlos came in the 3rd. Figure he got grilled for it and then subsequently came out and tossed a pick. 

I can agree with that, and he needs to shake it off.

But imo if you know the play, why wait for it to develop. Anticipate and throw. Throw it outside where the blocks are developing, not inside, and then blame it on Harris for drifting too far in if you miss the throw. QB rule #1, blame the receiver. 

Another view.

[GOMG2013]

I can agree with that, and he needs to shake it off.

But imo if you know the play, why wait for it to develop. Anticipate and throw. Throw it outside where the blocks are developing, not inside, and then blame it on Harris for drifting too far in if you miss the throw. QB rule #1, blame the receiver. 

Another view.

db was all over that route.  I'm sure they knew it was coming.  Even with mcnulty staring him down, the way the DB was set up, they were sitting on that play for the second half.

[DallasGreen]

I have heard Wilson may not play. No reason was given but source quoted was as of last Thurs. and is completely reliable.

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

^^ you shut your mouth ^^

[aztecskin]

db was all over that route.  I'm sure they knew it was coming.  Even with mcnulty staring him down, the way the DB was set up, they were sitting on that play for the second half.

Yeah you could see from the sideline view that the throw was off. MiniMac was intending to lead him on the route because never saw the DB coming. That's the thing, is that if he *knows* the throw he needs to make (Carlos) he should have dropped back looking right down the middle of the field. That would have frozen the DB just enough to have allowed a quick accurate throw outside. 

Additionally, if he had more heat on that throw, he wouldn't *have* to lead him so far to get it accurate. He could hit him in the chest and squeeze it in the window. 

Carlos' rules tell him to move inside toward the middle of the field. He ran his route correctly. If he just stood there and the guy jumped the route we'd be complaining about Harris not coming toward the ball (and this would be only half-good criticism). It's not a true bubble screen but a shallow cross with "picks" so he will come toward the ball with his route. 

I don't really like this play because it invites Mac to stare down his guy. It's supposed to be a quick hitter and thus at worst be an incompletion (drop) or tackle for short gain. But because we had no true deep threats they sat on it (among other reasons, including film study, pattern reading etc)

[Aldo]

Yeah you could see from the sideline view that the throw was off. MiniMac was intending to lead him on the route because never saw the DB coming. That's the thing, is that if he *knows* the throw he needs to make (Carlos) he should have dropped back looking right down the middle of the field. That would have frozen the DB just enough to have allowed a quick accurate throw outside. 

I hope he learns 

Carlos' rules tell him to move inside toward the middle of the field. He ran his route correctly. If he just stood there and the guy jumped the route we'd be complaining about Harris not coming toward the ball (and this would be only half-good criticism). It's not a true bubble screen but a shallow cross with "picks" so he will come toward the ball with his route. 

The slow speed at which he comes out of his break and the location of the blocks makes me think he was anticipating to get the ball sooner, which goes back to your point that McNulty needed to get it out quicker and with some more umph.

Anyway, in the end I hope Canales dials up some more creative stuff. The dbs the entire game were sitting on all the routes.

[mad dog]

Great writeup.  I hope we can see more of this.  All of last year, I had this theory (purely anecdotal, I never looked at film to support it) that the offense suffered from not taking advantage of the whole field.  It felt like they were working in the first five yards of the line of scrimmage, and targeting the sidelines on comebacks and outs.  They rarely used the deep sidelines, and almost never the intermediate to deep middle third.  If the other guy knows you're not going to attack half the field, it makes it look like they have 18 guys out there. 

The GIF above where McNulty throws the pick is a great example of that.  The defense is all jammed down into the box because there are no deep routes to stretch downfield.  Then, the (mike?) spies the QB, reads 3 step drop, follows AM's eyes and jumps the route.  I'm not sure the inside slot WR blocked the right guy, either, but still...

What say you?  Any validity to this idea on the tape you watched?

Thanks much!