Looking over the roster again

[Harry]

Just looked back through the final roster for 2015..  you can view it here:  http://www.meangreensports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/ntex-m-footbl-mtt.html

Anyhow, it struck me there is a nice blend at pretty much every position of talent as well as experience.  Is this proven no -- we won 4 games last season.  If you look at the roster by positional area and take into account the mix of youth and more experienced players it is encouraging.  Dare I say we have some umm depth?

Say what you want about McNulty but the guy has played in some ball games.  He's been in the program what 6 years?

O-Line probably has the biggest question marks but Rice could have started last season and Ochs proved worthy in the spring.  Banogu played a lot with Antonio's injury.  At least one of the young guys has to pan out and Rentfro has logged some playing time.

Running back looks deep.  Jeff Wilson and Antonio get a lot of the press but what about Rex Rollins and Andrew Tucker?  Those two guys have some serious speed and ability.

Tight end may be as deep as it has been in a long time.  Smith is a stud, but what about Loving?  Rheinhart is a junior and you add Kelvin Smith (likely redshirt) and of course Dillman...

Linebacker is loaded with talent and speed.  Finney is the lead dog, but Blake Bean, Fred Scott, Sed Ellis, Calvin Minor -- these guys have logged some playing time and should bring some experience.

The biggest area of depth may be defensive end...  you have six guys capable of giving you production and minutes.  Combs, Johnson, Roberts, Flusche, Polk and Dilonga.. they will make use of Dakota Smith in passing situations.

DT sees Sir Calvin and Orr returning to anchor the middle and Haboul, Moore and Tauaalo should provide depth.  Roderick Young and DeMikal Harrison can battle out for the sixth spot. 

I spoke about the secondary where you return Kenny Buyers and a star in KiShawn McClain.  There are a ton of others who UNT could turn to and some good speed all around.  A lot of these guys may not start but should be able to help us on special teams.

Kicking punting looks solid with Trevor Moore and Keena..

Edited July 10, 2015 by Harry

[SilverEagle]

Good summary Harry. Good job of remembering our other RB's, including the "oft-injured-but-never-gives-up" Rex Rollins. And Tucker has shown flashes of both speed and quickness for the last two years. And finally, knowing my weakness for the underdog player, there's the very fast and quick (and small 5'7X170) Marcell Porter #34 on your program. If he picks up this fall where he left off this spring, we are going to have a REAL DEEP rb situation here at NT. 

Also, I mentioned in another thread that I liked what I saw this spring of Terrance Johnson at TE #47 on your program. 

This is a good place to mention that Mr. Shanbour (still on the roster...#19) took his 2nd or 3rd string group in for a TD this spring. Not bad for someone who rarely got any reps during practice. 

[Cr1028]

Say what you want about McNulty but the guy has played in some ball games.  He's been in the program what 6 years?

A fair point. In the 3 seasons that he wasn't redshirting, he started 7 games. He has had more than 5 pass attempts in just 10 games. If we are talking meaningful in-game snaps, he has less than one season's worth. 

 

Since we love to compare him to DT so much around here, I'll add his experience going into his senior year.

DT started 24 games in his first 3 seasons(not counting garbage-time plays in '09 as a season). He threw more than 5 passes in 23 games(he was injured in 2 games he started before he got to 6 passes).

 

Looking at the level of game experience, stature, and average per game stats; I just don't see how DT (6'4" 218lbs) and AM  (6'1" 209lbs) are comparable. AM will not have a DT-like season because he simply is not like DT.

[Travis]

Looking at the level of game experience, stature, and average per game stats; I just don't see how DT (6'4" 218lbs) and AM  (6'1" 209lbs) are comparable. AM will not have a DT-like season because he simply is not like DT.

Agreed.  Hoping for AM to work out is like hoping our 2014 D-Line would perform like our 2013 D-line.  

 

I just don't see how 2015 AM will be like 2013 DT. And, I still contend that 2013 DT wasn't all that great anyhow. 

 

Unfortunately, that is the most important position on offense.... With a one-dimensional game... i am not overly optimistic.  I don't think I am underly optimistic either.

I don't have that much optimism at all. 

[Cr1028]

This is a good place to mention that Mr. Shanbour (still on the roster...#19) took his 2nd or 3rd string group in for a TD this spring. Not bad for someone who rarely got any reps during practice. 

I still can't understand why he was written off by the staff once his turf toe healed, he played well the one drive he was in the spring game. He had a great HS resume and had to have learned something good from Gundy at OSU.

[Ben Gooding]

I've been saying it... the talent is here. We haven't faired well in recruiting, but we have landed guys at notable positions such as Harrison, Young, Orr and Taaulo at DT. Combs, Johnson and Dilonga at DE. Goree, Rutherford, Harris and Co at WR. A slew of capable RB's. Some large, developed offensive linemen. Speed and length in the secondary. A good mixture of beef, experience and speed in the LB corps. There are a lot of pieces in place to have at least a decent year, except QB, if AM is our starter. 

GMG

[Greendylan]

A fair point. In the 3 seasons that he wasn't redshirting, he started 7 games. He has had more than 5 pass attempts in just 10 games. If we are talking meaningful in-game snaps, he has less than one season's worth. 

 

Since we love to compare him to DT so much around here, I'll add his experience going into his senior year.

DT started 24 games in his first 3 seasons(not counting garbage-time plays in '09 as a season). He threw more than 5 passes in 23 games(he was injured in 2 games he started before he got to 6 passes).

 

Looking at the level of game experience, stature, and average per game stats; I just don't see how DT (6'4" 218lbs) and AM  (6'1" 209lbs) are comparable. AM will not have a DT-like season because he simply is not like DT.

You make some good points.  I will point out that DT's junior year stats weren't THAT much better than AM's.  Completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and passer rating were all better for DT, but they are relatively comparable.  In fact, McNulty actually fared slightly better in interceptions per pass attempt. I do agree, though, that DT had physical advantages (and more experience) that helped propel him to a significant improvement, and I don't think it would be fair to expect the same from AM.

Having said that, I'm not entirely sure he has to improve that much.  I've always kind of suspected that it was the improvement of the O-line and skill position players from one year to the next, more so than DT's personal improvement, that allowed him to succeed in 2013.  The way the McCarney/Canales offense functions I think it tends to make QBs seem either way better or way worse than they really are.

[Cr1028]

You make some good points.  I will point out that DT's junior year stats weren't THAT much better than AM's.  Completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and passer rating were all better for DT, but they are relatively comparable.  In fact, McNulty actually fared slightly better in interceptions per pass attempt. I do agree, though, that DT had physical advantages (and more experience) that helped propel him to a significant improvement, and I don't think it would be fair to expect the same from AM.

Having said that, I'm not entirely sure he has to improve that much.  I've always kind of suspected that it was the improvement of the O-line and skill position players from one year to the next, more so than DT's personal improvement, that allowed him to succeed in 2013.  The way the McCarney/Canales offense functions I think it tends to make QBs seem either way better or way worse than they really are.

I will admit, looking at their game avgs for the 6 games AM started in '14 vs the 12 games DT started in '12, their stats are fairly similar.

AM '14: 16.0 of 29.2 for 179.8 yds, 55.9%, 0.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 6.2 YPA, 1.5 sacks

DT '12: 17.8 of 31.0 for 219.1 yds, 57.0%, 1.2 TD, 1.2 INT, 7.1 YPA, 0.5 sacks, though he did have to face LSU and KSU

Edited July 10, 2015 by Cr1028

[MeanGreenTexan]

I will admit, looking at their game avgs for the 6 games AM started in '14 vs the 12 games DT started in '12, their stats a fairly similar.

AM '14: 16.0 of 29 for 179.8 yds, 56%, 0.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 6.2 YPA, 1.5 sacks

DT '12: 17.8 of 31 for 219.1 yds, 57%, 1.2 TD, 1.2 INT, 7.1 YPA, 0.5 sacks, though he did have to face LSU and KSU

I would say 40 more yds/game and 1-less sack/game are pretty significant differences.  Comp rate & TD/INT ratios are definitely similar.  Granted, alot of DT's yards in '12 came from either YAC by Brelan or the longball to Brelan.

[Aldo]

That YPA difference is pretty significant.

[Harry]

I would say 40 more yds/game and 1-less sack/game are pretty significant differences.  Comp rate & TD/INT ratios are definitely similar.  Granted, alot of DT's yards in '12 came from either YAC by Brelan or the longball to Brelan.

Agree but DT also had Darnell Smith who always seemed to get wide open and made some huge game changing plays.

[Mean Green 93-98]

I will admit, looking at their game avgs for the 6 games AM started in '14 vs the 12 games DT started in '12, their stats are fairly similar.

AM '14: 16.0 of 29 for 179.8 yds, 56%, 0.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 6.2 YPA, 1.5 sacks

DT '12: 17.8 of 31 for 219.1 yds, 57%, 1.2 TD, 1.2 INT, 7.1 YPA, 0.5 sacks, though he did have to face LSU and KSU

But DT's performance dipped in '12.  He had shown previously that he was capable of significantly better (see '09 against ASU, 2011 season).  When has AM shown that he is capable of significantly better?

[GangGreen]

I was encouraged by his play in the last game against UTSA.

24-43-0, 287 1 TD passing 1 TD rushing

[Harry]

I was encouraged by his play in the last game against UTSA.

24-43-0, 287 1 TD passing 1 TD rushing

wasn't he hurt?  Seems like he was battling some injury...

[Side Show Joe]

Lets not forget Willy Ivery. He has some serous wheels. That guy should break off a few long runs in the fall. I think Wilson, Ivery, and Jimmerson will see the lion's share of the carries this season.

[greenit]

Apologies for the repost, but this probably belongs in this thread instead of where I originally posted it:

The 2012 recruiting season was a killer from a depth standpoint.  However, I think the roster currently looks pretty solid with the Juco additions that were used to address some of those holes.  With the exception of QB, I don't have a real problem with any other position.  If McNulty or Smith step up this year and give us at least an average season, we can win 5-7 games.

Last season, per ESPN FBS stats, the #75 (out of 123) QB in the major categories looked like this:

Passing yards:  2305
Attempts:  330
Completions:  191
Completion Percentage:  58%
Passing TDs:  15
Interceptions:  8
TD/Int Ratio:  1.875
QB Rating:  125.6

 

In our offense, I don't have any misconception that our QB will be some gunslinger, but they need to be efficient and be able to perform when needed.  I feel that it is very fair to judge our QB performance against the #75 hypothetical QB numbers. 

[SilverEagle]

Ya know, with the RB personnel that we have, we could revive the "flying wishbone". 

[Greendylan]

Apologies for the repost, but this probably belongs in this thread instead of where I originally posted it:

The 2012 recruiting season was a killer from a depth standpoint.  However, I think the roster currently looks pretty solid with the Juco additions that were used to address some of those holes.  With the exception of QB, I don't have a real problem with any other position.  If McNulty or Smith step up this year and give us at least an average season, we can win 5-7 games.

Last season, per ESPN FBS stats, the #75 (out of 123) QB in the major categories looked like this:

Passing yards:  2305
Attempts:  330
Completions:  191
Completion Percentage:  58%
Passing TDs:  15
Interceptions:  8
TD/Int Ratio:  1.875
QB Rating:  125.6

 

In our offense, I don't have any misconception that our QB will be some gunslinger, but they need to be efficient and be able to perform when needed.  I feel that it is very fair to judge our QB performance against the #75 hypothetical QB numbers. 

Those stats are a good measuring stick.  I'll say this:  I'm fairly confident (finger's crossed) that whomever we march out there can mostly match the first four categories.  It's those last three (interceptions, TD/INT ratio, QB rating) that concern me.  I'm going to predict that if we, as a team, finish ranked 75 or higher in those categories, then it will mean we won 6-8 games.  In our offensive system, those types of stats are very much indicative of the running game's effectiveness.