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ChristopherRyanWilkes

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Everything posted by ChristopherRyanWilkes

  1. Even if the SMU donor rumors are true, if you are letting big donors bully you, you may as well resign as a president. You were appointed to do a job by a board that may or may not include big donors, but either way, you do your job. Surely this was run past the various avenues before asking the teams to request membership. Maybe some donors are concerned, but they obviously weren't big enough to block this from getting out. This is usually a rubber stamp process at this point, as it was for the Big 12 additions a couple months ago. Same process.
  2. I doubt the Big 12 expands any more. One AD already said 14 doesn’t make sense financially or for travel. They are past the obvious teams for expansion now, Memphis and Boise have way more issues than the group headed to Big 12.
  3. I doubt this will happen. Again, this is fans overrating recent football success. Sun Belt and CUSA make about the same on TV deal, and CUSA members would have to pay $3 mil to leave. Why not just go the Sun Belt route and add an independent like NMSU and a FCS to get to 10? Much easier solution for everyone.
  4. The money alone should answer this question. Reportedly our TV deal will be 4 times higher than what it is currently.
  5. I get we are whipped dogs around here, but this is happening. It said the voting at this stage is a formality. They don’t ask teams to apply to reject them anymore (if that ever was a thing). SMU AD was on the committee that invited us.
  6. I’m not good enough with technology but hope someone does a new look AAC map. I’ve been looking at the new teams and it makes sense given what they lost. They have always been composed of schools in the top 20 markets in the south (or nearby in the case of Philly and Cinci) and this actually raises their profile in that regard. Despite the rhetoric, CUSA wasn’t totally market based. Was a mix of small and large, and all the largest ones just bolted. Solidifies AAC’s identity and makes me think a remaining CUSA and Sun Belt merger or similar arrangement would make sense.
  7. Why would it be Navy and not Memphis?
  8. I bet right now this is a tug-of-war between various interests, but ultimately the school’s presidents have the final say. The commissioner and the ADs work for them, they work for the chancellors, and so on. The presidents likely favor regionalization. From an academic standpoint, it means less travel for student-athletes. From a financial standpoint, the media rights likely don’t offset the added travel expenses anymore. For the athletic directors, they know that being in a perceived “superior” conference gives them a recruiting advantage. Also, for the AAC teams at least, they may still be hoping for a larger media deal than CUSA and to basically kill off any competitors for the guaranteed G5 spot in the playoffs. Aresco probably has the same thoughts as the AAC ADs and Judy is just trying to avoid going the way of the WAC if this gets out of hand. She has a fiduciary duty to all her members, and those left over will be in serious trouble if they don’t find a new home, especially if the AAC nabs 4-6 programs. This could get interesting. I don’t think it’s as far fetched as some people think, but it’s going to be a question of who wins out at the end of the day. If the CUSA presidents say they prefer this plan to going to the AAC, they may force their hand. The fact they are listening and haven’t already jumped ship is telling. As fans I think we should hope for regionalization, especially since this is with the AAC and not the Sun Belt. These regional rivalries would be a lot of fun with a few higher quality teams.
  9. I thought about that but didn't check, thanks. In that case, Sun Belt still has a very slight edge, which is very disheartening given the fact we left the Belt to achieve a perceived promotion up the ranks of the college football ladder. That hasn't been the case in basically any metric. That's why we need to have a sense of urgency about abandoning ship.
  10. I think a better way to look at this is revenue per school. So our $450mm divided by 14 is roughly $32mm per school. Sun Belt, having only 10 schools, does better at $36mm per school. If my calculations are correct, we actually do the worst on a per school basis than any other conference. In the quality vs. quantity argument, quality seems to have won out once again. You can see why so many schools are eager to disconnect themselves from this conference.
  11. I don’t understand football success being ranked second. From what time period? And even then?
  12. I get your point but this is almost like if you asked the AAC if they would want UCF, Houston, and Cinci to leave. Of course not. This is more of a proposal to the schools which would basically make the existing conferences obsolete if I read this correctly. It probably makes the most sense from a lot of perspectives but egos and false hope may get in the way. I think the AAC and Sun Belt schools think of themselves as superior, but the remaining schools in AAC are not clearly better than the rest of G5 anymore.
  13. The response from the presidents and ADs after Monday, not just the conference commissioners, will be interesting. Either way if this is true looks like we will be in good position to join AAC or MWC.
  14. Everyone brings up SMU (probably wishful thinking by MWC fans), but I don’t see why they would pay an exit fee to increase their travel costs and likely make the same or less money, even factoring in the losses AAC just took. I don’t think it’s any question UNT is at the top of that list, I just think it’s a question of do they expand. This may be the top brasses’ public campaign, but they may not have the support of everyone else in the conference because they are thinking about having to split the pie up even a little bit more.
  15. I thought MWC would be done after retaining CSU and AFA too, but in the last week two of their top ADs (CSU and SDSU) mentioned expansion into Texas. This was after announcing that they were keeping their 12 members. They entertained the AAC for the same reasons they are looking into Texas, they want the central time zone and to tap into the Texas recruiting grounds, for both athletes and students in general.
  16. Exactly, this sounds like at the very least a misunderstanding of what possibly happened. The CSU AD said things were never "imminent" with the AAC like it was reported and that media misinformation is common. Usually though these things aren't totally wrong or have some truth to them taken with a grain of salt around the details. I think you nailed what likely happened, if at all.
  17. Another MWC AD (this time CSU) talks expanding into Texas. Lots of interesting stuff in there, but a few tidbits: Big 12's top two key metrics for expansion were TV eyes and recent (last 10 years) football success. That's not to say Altimore's presentation is incorrect, but it does look like those were a point of emphasis for the Big 12 at least. May be less relevant with non-A5. The MWC expansion into Texas sounds pretty definite at this point. The question is who. He mentions that the teams coming in would have to be willing to take less money up front until they renegotiate their TV contract. That almost certainly leaves out SMU, who would be taking a big paycut to make the move. In my mind that leaves North Texas, Rice, and UTSA. They are also looking to add basketball only schools, with the obvious choice being Gonzaga. If that move coincides with ours, I would be on cloud 9. The association with Gonzaga and opportunities for upsets would propel our basketball program for years to come. Big 12 likely ain't done expanding. They are waiting for Texas and OU to bounce so they can go back to their contract limit of 14. Leaked information said Boise and Memphis were the last two out, so unfortunately we may not be in the same conference with Boise for very long if we get invited.
  18. He mentions in the video that schools have different objectives. Public schools are geared toward providing accessible education to their states. For instance, WVU has a stated mission statement of educating the people of Appalachia. Regardless, presidents know perception is big and I am convinced they look at most of these data points when deciding on what other schools they want to be affiliated with, along with subjective things just like anything else. Geography is less relevant with G5’s, as explained by a recent article by Matt Brown on mid-major TV numbers: https://www.extrapointsmb.com/mid-major-tv-valuation-conference-realignment-streaming/
  19. That's why I prefaced with "usually," but Penn and Ohio State are both their State's flagship and land grant schools. Ivies don't sponsor FBS football. USC is a prestigious private school, not a directional, which means a public school comprised of mostly commuters maybe in or near a major metropolitan area. California is a bit of an anomaly because they fund their system schools pretty evenly compared to Texas for example. It certainly factors into reputations. It took this long to get a directional school into a P5, and Louisville was the first city school in one only starting several years ago.
  20. The usual college football hierarchy is state flagship > land grant or secondary flagship > prestigious private school > city school (ie Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston etc.) > regional or directional school (North Texas) > system school (UTSA, UAB). I’m surprised UTSA and UAB is getting this much attention from the AAC honestly.
  21. SDSU AD says they are still eyeing Texas for expansion around 13 minute mark. Interviewer mentions SMU and he gets kind of coy, but mentions there are a couple programs that are making big investments and have potential in big markets. I almost assume he’s talking about UNT and UTSA. Hang on, things may still get interesting!
  22. He mentions this, but a lot of these schools benefit from elitist “input” metrics, rather than output (student SAT, GPA, etc.). Of course due to their small size and hardworking student base, they also do well financially. I say hardworking because most of that stuff is learning the game and working your tail off in high school. Any recruiter will tell you your average State school candidate probably has a better personality.
  23. I missed that earlier, that is interesting. Seems to be the “market size” metric that may be overrated this go around. I should also mention I don’t find any team in the CUSA other than Rice head and shoulders ahead of us in any category. Which is why I almost wonder if the AAC’s best move would be adding Army and Rice and calling it a day at 10. Their attempt at 4 MWC schools made sense, but now there’s very few clear stand outs for them to add. Like I said UNT is a top-10 candidate for either league, but there may not be enough movement, and the fit may not be as snug as those leagues would like. Other moves we’ve seen have made sense to this point but now the AAC has tougher calls.
  24. And taking a look at this, should we move if invited shouldn’t even be a question. We would be one of the teams dragging them down. Right now we are top-10 of the “G3”, but probably not ready to move up based on sports success.
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