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ChristopherRyanWilkes

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Posts posted by ChristopherRyanWilkes

  1. This is actually not worse case scenario. If all of this played out differently, we could have lost a lot more teams, and would have been really reeling. At this point, we are decently positioned. If SMU is the only team that leaves, and the conference is stuck at 13 teams, so be it. It was a little awkward having two DFW teams in the same conference anyways. Best case scenario we either join up in a new "best of G5" conference in the Pac-12, or add Washington State and Oregon State to the AAC. Even though geographically MWC makes more sense for them, we can offer more money. The main deal either way is we need to find ourselves competitive for that token G5 playoff spot by being in the best G5 conference. My fear would be that MWC really pulls away with additions of Oregon State and Washington State as well, but even in that scenario, with teams like Memphis, Navy, Tulane etc. still in tow I think we can still be competitive. Buckle up, now comes the fun part for us. 

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  2. On 7/13/2022 at 9:12 PM, NM Green said:

    I think smu is as good as gone and good for them. They aren’t sitting idling by while the conference quakes rattle. 

    This isn’t all bad for UNT. Become the premier team in the AAC with new foes and a regional reach. We’ll be fine. But kudos to SMU for their aggressiveness. If they land in a bigger conference it will have been earned/lobbied to success.

    In this new day and age that’s what it takes folks.  

    Now win Seth or get out of the way. 

    GMG

    If SMU leaves it is bad for UNT. This is what every left behind team in a lesser conference says when a premier program moves up. It’s always bad for the teams left behind. 

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  3. 2 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

    I think the AAC realized that the future for G5 schools is placing yourself in the best locations for the time-slot fillers the networks will always need to keep their programing going.

    I think the AAC was probably wrong. Look, I wish geography, time zone, market size, etc. was more important than it is (all that is good for North Texas), but objectively I don’t think it is. I’m happy we are there because it damn sure beats the alternative, but I wouldn’t be convinced they made the right moves as a legacy AAC member either. I guess we’ll have to see. 

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  4. 4 hours ago, outoftown said:

    The C-USA vs sunbelt development should have taught people, that at this level geography and identity are actually really valuable things for conferences. The belt should not have been within shouting distance by now considering the finances and draws of its programs when NT and the others left it, yet it built an identity while C-USA didn't have one and by the end was able to pick of the C-USA schools it wanted (and that fit its identity) rather than the other way around.

    I re-read this a few times but still don’t get it. You are proving my point I think. CUSA is the league that emphasized geography and the Belt had better programs, but small town locations. The Belt came out on top. Why is geography really valuable if what you said after proves the opposite? If by identity you mean winning football programs, then yes that’s important. 

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  5. 42 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

    I would expect any Pac-12 leftovers (assuming the conference dies) to prefer the American over the MWC for the same reasons that the Pac-12 is dying in the first place. 

    That's assuming they couldn't figure out some deal to join the Big XII or the ACC.

    The Big-10 is an objectively better conference than the Pac-12 in football, which is the only thing that really matters if we're honest. The best we can say when comparing the new AAC and MWC is they're maybe even, but I think most would still give the MWC a nod over the new AAC, given they have perennially ranked Boise State and SDSU. AAC doesn't have anyone like that in football anymore. The Pac-12 isn't just lagging the Big 10 in money because of time zones, they also have quality of football issues in recent years. If the MWC continues to outpace the AAC in football quality, they will surpass us in money (if they don't already, can't remember). The CUSA should have proved for most people that geography isn't even close to the top priority when it comes to TV deals.

  6. If this is any indication, new AAC could be in trouble with playoff committee. Outside of the P5s and soon-to-be P5s, only ranked teams in G5 are both from the MWC (Fresno State and San Diego State). I think most suspected the Mountain West would be elevated to best G5 conference, but this may confirm it. 

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  7. 6 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

    Not really sure what you think we're arguing about?  I'm not for SL, or against Traylor.

    I'm just correcting the statement that Dickey, like Traylor, had no wins against an FBS team with a winning record.

    Dickey does, right now Traylor doesn't.  He probably will, possibly against UTEP this week.  But UTSA did extend him before he had one, and NT did not do that for DD.

    Great point, this is a surprising fact. This could be a very risky move. I was just lamenting how scheduling is done in college football to a friend. I don’t think SMU, or even UTSA for that matter, will be ranked by season’s end. They came upon a very favorable early schedule. At the end of the day, being ranked mid-season is obviously something we’d be thrilled about, but being ranked at the end of the season is the mark of a truly great G5 team. I wish conference schedulers would balance things more at the beginning of the year. UNT could reasonably win 5 games and not look nearly as bad as our 1-6 start would suggest. Look at the combined record of our opponents vs UTEP’s. 

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  8. Just now, Cerebus said:

    Yes, however once you are an FBS conference you have a two year grace period.  If they can get 8 total schools that can all complete the FBS transition by the time the grace period ends, they can remain.

    If not, then they can still be a D1 multisport, with a few schools that are FBS independents.  Then if they can get to 8 at a later date they can recertify as an FBS.

     

     

    Kind of hard to find numbers but looks like both new FCS adds (SHSU and Jacksonville State) hit the minimum attendance requirement. Always the old mass season ticket purchase trick, too. Wonder who team #8 will be once WKU and MTSU officially leave. 

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  9. 12 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

    No, they need 7 teams who all play mens and womens D1 basketball to be a multisport conference.  That is the minimum for a D1 conference.  They need 8 full (as in not part of the FCS->FBS transition program) FBS members to be an FBS conference.  

    Being an FBS is probably out of the question now.  But if they can get to 7 they can stay a D1 multisport.  

    Interesting, didn’t know that. Does this mean they would no longer be a FBS football conference if they can’t get to 8 FBS teams without FCS->FBS transition teams? 

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  10. Well, their geography just became clear. They will focus on southern FCS teams I bet, mostly in Texas. None of those FCS teams particularly scare me, save maybe SHSU. My guesses off the top of my head are SHSU, Tarleton, SFA, Jacksonville State, University of North Florida...

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  11. Bad hires have have a ripple effect. I don’t know how true this is anymore but I’ve heard we don’t have a great reputation with high school coaches. That’s more impactful than we’d like to hope. Your comment on new programs goes to my theory that no reputation is better than a bad reputation. We really need to make a good hire and ride that into the AAC. I tune out in bad seasons and just cherish the good ones. Probably the best way to stay sane. 

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  12. 33 minutes ago, 10Eagle10 said:

    With all due respect (and remember I’m saying “with all due respect”), can you fathom how depressing it must be for the Southern Miss fan base to be excited about joining the Sun Belt in the year 2021? 

    The remaining CUSA teams can learn from what the Sun Belt did. Stick together and add the best FCS and independent teams you can. It may be a long pay off, but those FCS call ups can become good quick. We’ve seen that time and time again. 

  13. 45 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

    $2 million is what we are hearing. Don’t think it bounces from the $1.4 million range until the schools enter. 

    Wow, that would be equal to what the new AAC teams will get. Existing AAC teams get $7 mil and MWC teams get $4m each. Looks like a new class of top tier G5 conferences, with MAC and CUSA in the cellar now, each under $1 mil per school right now. Remember those numbers also represent TV exposure. Happy for our former conference mates and us. Feel for the remaining CUSA schools but you have to hustle in this league. 

  14. 8 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

    Having like minded schools makes life easier. Reaching a consensus is easier when everyone has a similar outlook. It creates a stable environment.

    I see some G5-P5 parallels too that could be useful for future scheduling. SEC-SBC, B10-MAC, P12-MWC, AAC-ACC, then those outlier conference in CUSA and B12. 

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  15. 6 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

    While your soon to be former commissioner and numerous realignment junkies and bored sports writers have played with maps the last decade plus for what they considered sensible realignment based solely around maps, looks like the presidents and chancellors are solving this themselves.

    Look at the new AAC. Outside of ECU and Wichita State, it’s a collection of publics and privates in large metro areas. For the most part, institutions with similar missions.

    Meanwhile, Sun Belt has been in discussion with USM and Marshall for at least three months, maybe more like four from what I hear and if they end up joining as expected, it makes Sun Belt a collection of football centric public universities located in college towns and small cities except for Georgia State.

    The presidents have sorted themselves out into similar minded schools.

    That leaves CUSA. 

    You’ve got UTEP roughly 890 miles from their nearest conference opponent in La. Tech. If USM joins Sun Belt as expected that leaves FIU roughly 890 miles away from their nearest CUSA opponent in MTSU. 

    It seems it has worked out well for everyone but the CUSA outliers and schools that have some blemish that keeps them from drawing interest from the Belt or AAC. 

    It’s a great outcome in my book

    I’ve thought about this too, it does fit nicer than people think. Also, ECU is actually in a pretty big metro. That surprised me too, but it’s a top 20 CSA in the south. 
     

    To me, the only other weird outlier conference outside CUSA now is the Big 12. Weird mix of plains state flagships and overlap of what AAC’s demographic is, plus BYU. Basically just a medley of outside the top-4 conferences, but still P5, teams. 

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