MeanGreenGlory

But if only Stanford and Cal join…how do you “vote out” Washington State and Oregon State since they’re legacy members of the conference that would be overtaken?

This isn’t over. Sounds like BIG10 and BIG12 may push up to 24 teams, and the SEC wants to expand further as well. All three will likely want to poach schools from the ACC. One conference—either a rebuilt PAC, rebuilt ACC, AAC, or MWC—will have the opportunity to be the strongest of the current G5s and weaker P5s. That conference will have a fighting chance at getting good media deals and staying relevant. Everyone else (including CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt, etc.) will likely have an uphill battle for revenue and relevance. Does Aresco make plans to secure 24 schools in the AAC to become a top 4 conference when the dust settles (BIG10, SEC, BIG12, and AAC)?

Agree. In an ideal world, if going west, it’d be Stanford, Cal, SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, and AFA. This would add substantial markets, solid programs, and keep travel more reasonable than asking Rice and UTSA to fly up to Washington State and Oregon State for games. That said, I think we’re in the “strengthen your conference at all costs” phase to not be left behind. So if we’re looking at the 4 remaining PAC schools joining the AAC rather than joining the MWC or poaching the top MWC and AAC schools, I’m all for it.

ESPN is reportedly very upset that they don’t have any West coast markets now. Rumors that ESPN is pushing BIG12 to add someone like SDSU. This could also be Aresco’s bargaining chip with ESPN to bring on a couple West coast schools and re-negotiate the media deal for a higher amount.

https://twitter.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1687584468716892160?s=46&t=IO-g6IKjsv35TYFbX8rtUA

The thing is…all the G5/P5 talk is fabricated. There’s no more “P5” talk after this. The media will shift to a “P4” narrative and then a “P2” narrative. So current “P5s” need to face this reality and ensure they put themselves i. The best situation possible regardless of nomenclature.

If the BIG10 and BIG12 have their way, I think either the AAC or MWC will absorb Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State at this point I just don’t think the PAC12 will have enough credibility remaining for AAC or MWC schools to pay high exit fees only to enter an unknown and unstable situation. If I’m Aresco right now, I’m going after the four remaining PAC12 schools to get to 18 football schools. If/When I get them, I go for Colorado State and Air Force to get to 20 and solidify the AAC as the fifth strongest conference that would likely surpass the ACC if/when FSU and others leave. If Stanford decides to go independent, but I can get the other three PAC12 schools + Colorado State and Air Force, I fill the 20th spot with Army. What you get: 20 teams. Great mix of large public schools, small private schools, and military academies. Linear TV deal across all four continental time zones with good regional matchups and rivalries.

Third time’s a charm?

Agree 100% and would love for Colorado State and Air For e to be in the AAC with us. However, the barrier is the MWC exit fee cost. Can they really afford to pay $34M to enter a conference that will probably only give them a partial share of revenue for the first few years? Aresco is probably more likely to get Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State because they don’t have any exit fees and are on a sinking ship.

Conceptually, I like it. Practically, it would all depend on the media deal associated with it. Streaming-only is a deal-breaker IMO.

I don't know...the number of times I've walked into Costco with a specific list and walked out with a handful of impulse buys is probably above 90%. Two tickets for a local D1 football game under $45? I bet people are picking them up. And, like I mentioned above, the local advertising you get in the stores even if the tickets aren't selling is still probably worth it.

Wow. I haven’t seen this before. Neat idea. It could be a good experiment for UNT to sell tickets in the DFW Costco and Sam’s Club locations. My hunch is that the additional butts in seats is worth the lower profit margin at our current stage.

I haven’t been able to verify this, but it definitely looks like a Costco display. If true, I think it’s actually a pretty clever way to reach the local community and try to get new people to attend a game and build the fan base. Best Case Scenario: You sell more tickets and increase attendance Worst Case Scenario: You don’t sell the tickets in the store but you get three months of good advertising exposure in the local community.

Agree. Assuming the financials are strong, this is a great partnership.

Have they announced the numbers of the agreement? Curious what it entails and how it stacks up against the original Apogee agreement.

I wouldn't call a business holding $1.5 billion in assets a "small business."

At this point, I think the PAC will stick around as a mixture of current PAC leftovers and MWC additions. Too many programs want to be considered "P5" at any cost, and since the PAC has historically held that fabricated label, they will be willing to jump head over heels for invites. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing for us because this would weaken both the MWC and PAC overall. There's enough competition and commitment in the AAC schools that multiple schools still have an opportunity to be ranked throughout the season. This could all work in our favor because if SMU, Tulane, or Memphis leave, it's one less competitive school we would need to beat to win the championship (this sounds like Oregon's and Washington's rationale for wanting to stay in a weakened PAC). Timing-wise, if Morris & Co. spend this year ramping up and have the team firing on all cylinders next year as Frank Harris departs UTSA and Traylor needs to build up a new QB...we have a serious shot to be ranked, win the AAC, and make an appearance in the college football playoff. Let that sink in for a minute. At that point, success attracts success. The more appearances we can make in the football playoff, the more we attract high-quality athletes to come play at UNT. The better athletes we have, the more likely we are to win another conference championship and make a playoff appearance. Rinse and repeat. It'll take a lot of work...but it's very possible right now. It'll be even more possible against a weaker MWC and PAC conference. It'll be even more possible if one of SMU, Tulane, or Memphis decides to exit the AAC.

Weird…why isn’t SMU on that list of possible G5s?

Ehhh…I think you could argue streaming services are struggling more. The Longhorn Network didn’t work well for fans, the PAC-12 Network lacked exposure which hurt the league, MLS is now exclusively on AppleTV and is leaving fans behind… People seem to be okay paying for 1–3 subscriptions. Beyond that, it becomes cost prohibitive and people choose the most valuable ones to them. I think the network deals will retain value over time because you can buy one cable package or something like Hulu Live and access the majority of them.

Because in this instance, "dead weight" is distributed across multiple criteria. For example: Georgia State could be considered "dead weight" from an institution or football performance perspective, but they bring one of the largest media markets in a hotbed recruiting area and are investing heavily in their program so they bring a good deal of media/exposure value. UTSA could be considered "dead weight" in terms of facilities and all other sports except for football, but they bring a great media market and a recently successful football team which is driving a lot of this. Tulsa could be considered "dead weight" in terms of market and on-field performance, but they bring an Oklahoma presence which is important for recruiting purposes and respectable academics. For the AAC, it's clear you aren't going to get the top state schools with mass followings (Alabama, Michigan, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Washington, etc.)—they're being gobbled up by SEC/BIG10. Therefore, the AAC has to be more focused on it's media revenue and recruiting territories to remain competitive. The larger number of schools come into play when media outlets are looking to sign deals: If you're a media outlet looking to provide value to your viewers, and the SEC, BIG10, and BIG12 already have signed media deals, who do you prioritize next? A stable conference with the 20 next-best programs in major media markets across four time zones OR a smaller 10-team conference primarily located in one time zone?

The PAC-12 is currently on track to repeat CUSA's story—A good conference that spirals downward with poor leadership.

CU is reportedly bolting from the PAC-12. This will cause more delay in an already delayed media deal, and many believe that leadership at other top programs in the PAC-12 will follow CU in seeking conference stability by jumping ship. Regardless of which schools leave the PAC-12, there are two things that are strong assumptions right now: The PAC-12 is an unstable conference with a floundering media deal The MWC will likely be poached by the PAC-12 to backfill whatever spots they need Aresco mentioned two things in his AAC media day speech regarding his conference realignment approach that stuck out to me: A) "Power Markets" and B) Strength in Numbers. Based on those two criteria and the fact that the AAC has established stability with reputable media partners, I think Aresco has an opportunity to be aggressive here and genuinely solidify the AAC as a top 5 conference. We're at 14 football schools now, and I think he could make the AAC the first mega-conference of 20 by adding the following six programs. Since "power markets" are a factor, I included the market ranks in parenthesis based on the 2022-2023 Nielsen DMA Rankings. Army (NY #1 / National) Colorado State (Denver #16 / Ft. Collins) Air Force (Colorado Springs #86 / National) UNLV (Las Vegas #40) SDSU (San Diego #30) One of: Georgia State (Atlanta #6), Stanford (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose #10), Cal (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose #10), San Jose State (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose #10), Utah State (Salt Lake City #29) For the sixth spot, while I think the California schools add some nice brands, Georgia State brings the best market of the bunch, is in the middle of a stellar recruiting area, and could balance out the conference cleanly into two divisions. The two divisions could look like this: EAST Army (NY #1 / National) Charlotte (Charlotte #21) East Carolina (Greenville #37) Florida Atlantic (West Palm Beach #39 / Miami #18) Georgia State (Atlanta #6) Memphis (Memphis #52) Navy (Baltimore #28 / National) South Florida (Tampa #13) Temple (Philadelphia #4) Tulane (New Orleans #50) WEST Air Force (Colorado Springs #86 / National) Colorado State (Denver #16 / Ft. Collins) North Texas (DFW #5) Rice (Houston #7) SDSU (San Diego #30) SMU (DFW #5) Tulsa (Tulsa #62) UAB (Birmingham #45) UNLV (Las Vegas #40) UTSA (San Antonio #31) Why would the schools consider doing this? The PAC-12 leadership has repeatedly and publicly shown they are struggling. They can't secure a media deal, and we've all learned that media revenue drives all of this. Full stop. The MWC schools know the conference is about to be poached one way or another so they're probably already starting to feel on unstable ground. Aresco has secured a media deal that is better than the MWC, and he has demonstrated far better leadership than the PAC-12. With additional strong markets, the next AAC media deal will likely be stronger and better than a watered-down PAC12 deal and certainly stronger than any MWC, Sun Belt, and CUSA deal. As @DentonStang called out in another thread, the watered-down PAC-12 likely looks something like this: Cal (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose #10) Stanford (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose #10) OSU (Corvallis - Portland #22) WSU (Pullman - Spokane #67) SDSU (San Diego #30) SMU (DFW #5) Tulane (New Orleans #50) Colorado State (Denver #16 / Ft. Collins) Boise State (Boise #98) UNLV (Las Vegas #40) Comparing the AAC Mega-Conference above with this Hypothetical PAC-12, there are a few things to note: The AAC Mega-Conference has double the teams, which means the media package would need to be double that of the Hypothetical PAC-12 to achieve the same payout per school, assuming equal distribution of funds. I'm no media expert, but I think it's possible because: The AAC Mega-Conference offers 10 schools in the top 25 media markets as opposed to the Hypothetical PAC-12's 5 schools in the top 25 media markets The average market size rank of the AAC Mega-Conference is 27.85 compared to 34.8 for the Hypothetical PAC-12's The AAC Mega-Conference offers multiple scheduling opportunities across all four continental U.S. time zones (Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific). The Hypothetical PAC-12's only offers three, with the vast majority being in Pacific and Mountain. The AAC Mega-Conference offers three conference games of national notoriety in Army vs. AF, Army vs. Navy, and AF vs. Navy If the AAC Mega-Conference were to happen, it would easily be considered a top-five conference. Over time, as additional funds from a higher re-negotiated media deal made their way through the programs, it could arguably surpass the ACC. This is especially true if the SEC/BIG10 poaches the top ACC programs. Anyway, food for thought, as this could be the last round of realignment for a while, and I'd like to see Aresco do everything he can to leverage this opportunity to position the AAC above the stumbling PAC-12.

This is going to be interesting. I wonder if Aresco is making any calls…

At this exact moment with only CU departing? Yes. If/When a handful of the more prominent programs in the conference leave? Not so sure.