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Everything posted by MeanGreenGlory

  1. This article sheds light on his role in Michigan's turnaround, and it sounds like he's been a major contributor to their recent success: https://theathletic.com/3771847/2022/11/08/michigan-biff-poggi-jim-harbaugh/ I get the impression he'll be a "CEO" type of coach in that he'll hire the best coordinators he can, and hold them responsible for successful Xs and Os while he focuses on the bigger picture and fosters team culture, motivation, and relationships.
  2. I'm not going to say Deion or bust. I still think Tom Herman would be a good hire all things considered, and if we did hire him I'd be excited and I think he could slowly re-energize the fanbase over time. That being said, here's why I think Deion has the potential be the home run hire this time around... Let's say that Herman, Fuente, and Sanders are all hired to be the next HC at UNT next year in parallel universes. Let's say they all have identical success on the field in their first year, and they all achieve the same 7-6 record against the same teams. While the on-field success is identical, I have a hunch that there would be a noticeable difference in attendance, fan engagement, and program visibility by the end of year one in Sanders' universe compared to Herman's and Fuente's. That may seem like a moot point, but the question is: what impact does the difference in the level of engagement and visibility have as each coach rolls into year two? Is Sanders able to land better recruits than Herman and Fuente as a result? Does Sanders land the conference "Coach of the Year Award" because the buzz around him and the program made an impression on the committee? Do we have additional revenue to retain quality coaches or expedite facility improvements? Does it increase the average attendance at home games which could help make the difference in a close game that helps Sanders win an extra home game in year two that Herman and Fuente lost? How do all of these things compound and impact the program over time? Winning on the field is obviously mission-critical, and to that end, someone like Herman is the safer bet. What I'm saying is that I think Sanders has some intangibles that other candidates don't. Those intangibles may not seem like a big deal on paper, but they could be difference makers over time IF he's able to pair it with consistent winning. I previously dismissed sanders because I thought he was too much of a gamble, but I'm starting to think these intangibles may be worth betting on IF you can guarantee he brings in an OC and DC with great college experience to help hedge the risk. As a parting analogy, I think Herman/Fuente and Sanders are like two different types of stocks: Herman and Fuente are like a blue chip dividend stocks. If you get Herman or Fuente, you're likely going to get a solid performer that will pay off consistent dividends year after year. Sanders is like a young tech stock. He has shown potential and isn't fully vetted yet so he's undervalued and a bit risky. However, he shows a lot of promise and if he succeeds, it'll be a rocket ship up the charts that blows the dividend stocks out of the water. More risk, but more reward (IF it works out). I could see UNT going either direction, and I see both directions having the potential to work. It's all a matter of risk tolerance and deciding what tradeoffs we're willing/able to make.
  3. I like this idea. Do any schools have a heavy incentive based contracts like this in place already? I'm be curious to know if there's a statistical difference in performance between schools with significant incentives in their contracts vs. schools with few incentives in their contracts.
  4. I've previously thought that Deion was too much of a gamble, so I hadn't heavily considered him as a candidate before...but the more I think about it, the more I could see him being exactly the right HC for UNT. Here's why... We all know we need the next HC to do two main things: Improve recruiting Win games and compete for championships consistently Guys like Justin Fuente and Tom Herman have a track record doing this as head coaches at the FBS level, which is why they seem to be top runners amongst the forum right now. It seems logical enough. However, there's a third thing that UNT desperately needs, but hasn't been talked about much. The third thing is to re-energize the fan base. Right now, apathy is a serious problem for UNT football because we've failed to string together any kind of success for DECADES. Our alumni base and community simply aren't on the bandwagon—not only because some got off, but also because most never got on. I think the assumption is that if a new HC comes in, improves recruiting, and wins more, fans will organically start showing up to games. This might be true...but the AD seems to believe that wins should speak for themselves, and no additional promotion is needed, so it'll likely take 5–10 seasons of consistent winning to get there. As a result, I think we need a HC who can engage the fans and community in a way that gets them to buy in sooner rather than later. Doing so will increase engagement at games which will make Apogee a harder place for visiting teams to win, as well as increase ticket sales, donations, etc. to help provide more funds to build the program. Programs like Texas A&M or Auburn don't necessarily need their HC to also be a promoter of the program because the fanbase already wants to be fiercely engaged. UNT is not in that category and could benefit greatly from a coach that wins and also has an infectious personality who wants to engage the community. So, to me, there are three important goals for the next HC at UNT: Improve recruiting Win games and compete for championships consistently Engage and re-energize the fanbase, community, and alumni With this lens, I don't know that guys like Fuente or Herman are the right guys for UNT at this moment, and it makes guys like Deion very appealing. The risk with Deion is that he's not a proven HC at the FBS level. For that reason, I think it'd be important to ensure he has the funds to bring in an excellent OC and DC with substantial college experience to help hedge this. But given Deion is one of the best in the industry at generating buzz and attracting attention, along with his history in the DFW area, I think that if he were hired him and brought in the right staff, he could be very well be the right person to bolster recruiting, re-energize the fanbase, and stack championships.
  5. Thank you for sharing this! I'm hopeful it's all true. Seth winning out the remaining games this season, including the CUSA championship, and getting hired by a P5 is the best case scenario. It'd be great for UNT and it'd be great for Seth. Here's to winning out the rest of the season!
  6. Using a single example out of a much larger body of work is not a logical way to rationalize something. Here's Seth's non-conference history at UNT excluding FCS teams: Year Date Opponent Result 2016 September 3 SMU* L 21–34 2016 September 17 at No. 23 Florida* L 0–32 2016 October 22 at Army* W 35–18 2016 December 27 vs. Army* L 31–38 OT 2017 September 9 at SMU* L 32–54 2017 September 16 at Iowa* L 14–31 2017 November 18 Army* W 52–49 2017 December 16 vs. Troy* L 30–50 2018 September 1 SMU* W 46–23 2018 September 15 at Arkansas* W 44–17 2018 September 22 at Liberty* W 47–7 2018 December 15 vs. Utah State* L 13–52 2019 September 7 at SMU* L 27–49 2019 September 14 at California* L 17–23 2019 September 28 Houston* L 25–46 2020 September 19 SMU* L 35–65 2020 December 21 vs. Appalachian State* L 28–56 2021 September 11 at SMU* L 12–35 2021 October 9 at Missouri* L 35–48 2021 October 23 Liberty* L 26–35 2021 December 23 vs. Miami (OH)* L 14–27 2022 September 3 SMU* L 10–48 2022 September 17 at UNLV* L 27–58 2022 September 24 at Memphis* L 34–44 To save you from counting, that's a 5-18 record—a winning percentage of 21.74%. Not good. And before you say, "Oh, well there are some good teams in there like Florida! We can't reasonably expect to beat Florida!" Okay, I can agree with you on that. But 2016 Florida is really the only team. Everyone else was beatable. And before you say, "Oh, well some of those teams aren't in the AAC so it's not apples to apples." Okay, let's look at just the teams from the AAC during the seven seasons: Year Date Opponent Result 2016 September 3 SMU* L 21–34 2017 September 9 at SMU* L 32–54 2018 September 1 SMU* W 46–23 2019 September 7 at SMU* L 27–49 2019 September 28 Houston* L 25–46 2020 September 19 SMU* L 35–65 2021 September 11 at SMU* L 12–35 2022 September 3 SMU* L 10–48 2022 September 24 at Memphis* L 34–44 That's a 1-8 record against AAC teams during his tenure—a winning percentage of just 11.11%. I appreciate Seth for the positive things he has done at UNT, but he's not the guy who will lead us to AAC championships and playoff bids.
  7. I want to put extra emphasis on this... Assuming the college playoff system goes through as it's currently proposed, we are in a better position to earn a college football championship playoff spot than UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and many P5 schools. Think about that. If we can get our program to the point where we dominate the AAC and win the championship (which is a reasonable goal with our resources), we have a high likelihood of being one of the highest ranked conference champions and secure a playoff bid. UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati decreased their chances to earn a playoff bid. We just increased ours. IF we can earn playoff bids early in the life of the expanded playoff system, we can use that to significantly increase the level of talent we recruit. "If you come to UNT, we believe there's a good chance you'll compete for a national championship. Do you want to be buried in P5 conference standings, or do you want to compete for a national championship?" Again, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. UNT leadership can't sit on their hands and hope Seth pulls out some new magic trick in year eight that he hasn't pulled out in the first seven years.
  8. "Leaders at these schools are paying attention, and as three major powers, including last year’s playoff entrant Cincinnati, are departing, the new-look AAC will be a land rush to see who will replace the Bearcats, UCF, and Houston as that perennial G5 giant." This is one of the main reasons I think Wren needs to part ways with Seth after the season no matter what. We've been destroyed by AAC level competition throughout Seth's seven years here (that's nearly two full four-year recruiting cycles to address talent and scheme issues!). Based on his body of work at UNT, it's evident he's not the person to take us to the next level. It doesn't mean he's a bad person. It doesn't mean he's an awful coach. It doesn't mean I don't want the best for him. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be more successful elsewhere... But after seven years of evidence, it's clear that Seth isn't able to get UNT to an AAC championship level (he hasn't even gotten us to a CUSA championship level). There are good, experienced head coaching candidates on the market right now who have experience coaching at a higher level, could hit the portal immediately, and build on the momentum of our entry into the AAC to get us to AAC championship quality quickly. Just imagine if the college football playoff expands sooner than 2026 and the new staff has had a couple years to upgrade our roster and implement their system. There's a legitimate possibility for UNT to become the perennial G5 giant and earn early championship playoff bids within the next few years. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which is why I think it's so crucial to go for it. We need to take the shot with the goal to become the G5 giant that earns the first few championship playoff bids. Achieving that is attainable with our resources, and it would change the course of the program forever.
  9. Hiring a new coach is risky for every program. It's part of the game. Just look at the situation Auburn is in right now--they hired what appeared to be a "proven winner" and 1.5 years later spent $15M+ to buy out the contract and bring in someone new. Why is it worth $15M for them to do that? Because the cost of running a poor-performing program is higher than the $15M+ to buy out the coach. They recognize opportunity cost. They recognize that if you have a poorly-performing program, all revenue tanks. What's interesting is UNT has such a long history of football mediocrity that running the average program we have today isn't much different than running a poorly performing program; the die-hard fans will show up and complain about not winning, but then still show up for a few more games throughout the season and complain some more until the next season. The difference in ticket sales, merchandise, concessions, donations, etc. likely isn't drastically different between the two types of seasons/programs at this point for UNT. As a result, there isn't a drastic amount of downside risk to brining in a new coach who performs the same as, or worse than, Seth. However, if we were able to bring in a coach who legitimately built UNT's program up to its potential, ticket sales, merchandise, concessions, donations, etc. would all increase significantly. If that coach strung together a few great seasons and then got hired away, the program is in a better place which means the caliber of your next head coach increases which increases the opportunity to build on the momentum. This is how other schools like UH, UCF, Cincinnati, Boise State, etc. have climbed the ladder, and it's a realistic roadmap for UNT as well if the decision is made to pursue it. With this, the upside potential is far greater than the downside risk for UNT right now. What I find fascinating is that when McCarney was head coach, people on here would grumble that we would often "play to not lose" instead of "play to win." They're two different mentalities, and they bring different results. As a program right now, it feels like if we keep Seth we're playing to "not lose" instead of playing to win. I think it's time UNT plays to win.
  10. Year Team Overall Conference Standing Bowl/playoffs North Texas Mean Green (Conference USA) (2016–present) 2016 North Texas 5–8 3–5 4th (West) L Heart of Dallas 2017 North Texas 9–5 7–1 1st (West) L New Orleans 2018 North Texas 9–4 5–3 T–2nd (West) L New Mexico 2019 North Texas 4–8 3–5 T–4th (West) 2020 North Texas 4–6 3–4 4th (West) L Myrtle Beach 2021 North Texas 6–7 5–3 3rd (West) L Frisco Football Classic 2022 North Texas 5–4 4–1 North Texas: 42–42 30–22 Seth has done a good job of raising the level of North Texas football from dumpster fire status to average. If we were coming off of back-to-back 9-win seasons again, I'd say provide an extension if he won the conference game. But we're coming off 4-8, 4-6, and 6-7 in CUSA with zero bowl wins and no conference championships. It's time to bring in someone new who can take us from average to being a top competitor for the AAC championship year after year.
  11. Barry Odom. His head coaching record isn't better than Seth's. However, turning around an SEC program is a bit more challenging than turning around an AAC program. Additionally, since being a head coach, he's been a successful AHC/DC in the SEC and has been a big part of turning Arkansas around which I think adds a lot of additional wisdom and value to his head coaching experience. He's also not unfamiliar nor unafraid of taking on a re-building project:
  12. This is an important and underrated factor, in my opinion. A number of people are saying that Wren wouldn't end things with Littrell before the end of the season because "there's nothing to gain by ending it with him before then." However, if Wren is going to end things with Littrell, I think it's important to do it sooner rather than later. In the world of the portal, we're going to have a higher percentage of players transferring out due to the coaching turnover and the new coach will need as much time as possible to assess roster gaps and assemble AAC level talent that fits their system. If we don't give the new coach sufficient time to get a staff in place and thoroughly recruit, our debut in the AAC will be rough.
  13. Looks like we might see Gunnel in the 4th quarter…
  14. I might have missed a few who will be moving conferences/divisions over the next few years, but this is the gist of the schools we'd have to beat (including Boise, Memphis, and SMU): Air Force Akron Appalachian State Arkansas State Ball State Boise State Bowling Green Buffalo Central Michigan Charlotte Coastal Carolina Colorado State East Carolina Eastern Michigan FIU Florida Atlantic Fresno State Georgia Southern Georgia State Hawaiʻi James Madison Kent State Louisiana Louisiana Tech Louisiana–Monroe Marshall Memphis Miami (OH) Middle Tennessee Navy Nevada New Mexico Northern Illinois Ohio Old Dominion Rice San Jose State SMU South Alabama South Florida Southern Miss Temple Texas State Toledo Troy Tulane Tulsa UAB UCF UNLV Utah State UTEP UTSA Western Kentucky Western Michigan Wyoming
  15. I think I found the answer to my question. It looks like it's not an automatic bid for any particular conference, but the six highest ranked conference champions. Per Fox Sports: "The CFB Board of Managers, which voted unanimously on expansion, is made up of 11 members, including university presidents and chancellors. The board has approved a 12-team CFP model, which would consist of the six highest-ranked conference champions, and six at-large teams, per ESPN." I personally like that better than auto-bids for a set list of conferences. It's definitely more of an uphill battle for non-P5 conferences, but it feels more fair than all P5s + AAC or MWC getting the six auto bids.
  16. "The 12-team model, which will follow the recommendation made by the CFP working group last summer, will consist of six conference champions and six at-large teams, sources told Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic." Will the "Power 6" talk pushed by Aresco finally pay off and get the AAC an automatic bid? Or will it be the MWC?
  17. Wow. This video quality and editing is phenomenal. Brilliant way to tell the game day story. Thank you to whoever filmed this and put it together. Well done.
  18. Nobody is saying it wasn't hot forty years ago... Scientific models are simply suggesting it will be hotter in the upcoming decades, even if only by a few degrees. As it turns out, when you're talking about historically hot Texas summers, a few additional degrees can be a tipping point for increased heat-related illnesses which is something to think about when you're asking student athletes to perform physically demanding activity for long periods of time in that heat.
  19. Whether SMU leaves or not, I hope the AAC gets Air Force and Colorado State at minimum. A few other MWC schools might be nice additions as well.
  20. What are the chances this causes enough disruption in the MWC to make Colorado State and Air Force join the AAC? I believe they expressed interest before the MWC announced they were staying out for the time being.
  21. I have no idea where everything will stand once the dust settles… However, I’m happy to know that we'll be in the AAC with Aresco who is a more strategic, vocal, and pro-active commissioner. This increases our chances of being in a better conference when the music stops compared to our chances if we remained in CUSA. AAC The American went big last year, adding six Conference USA schools after losing three to the Big 12 (and being turned down by the Mountain West four). Only Memphis and SMU appear to be potential Power 5 targets this time if spots open up. But the AAC, too, could be interested in Washington State and Oregon State if the Pac-12 falls apart. The AAC already looked to the Pacific time zone last year with its Mountain West targets. The American could pitch a higher TV payout. The Mountain West pays around $4 million per school as part of its Fox/CBS deal, while the remaining eight original AAC schools earn more than $6 million from its ESPN deal, both numbers that could increase with the Pac-12 leftovers (the six new AAC schools will receive a smaller share). “At the end of the day, the American has a chance to stay stable and/or potentially pick up a team or two if all hell breaks loose,” the source said. Full article: https://theathletic.com/3403475/2022/07/06/college-football-realignment-mountain-west-aac/?amp=1
  22. This is likely the best QB transfer we've ever gotten. I agree this is huge for Littrell, and I'm cautiously optimistic. In my opinion, the reason to be more confident in Gunnell succeeding here compared to transfers like Morris, Ruder, Earle, and Head is that Gunnell has respectable playing experience against P5 teams. We'll see what happens...but this could be good.
  23. Reminder: Transfers from successful programs don't always pan out the way you might expect. Exhibit 1 Exhibit 2
  24. Great news! Any word on whether or not Ross Hodge is staying as well?
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