MeanGreenWithEnvy

It's not going to be easy, but I think we win: Mean Green 31 Hoot Machine 28

Here's an analogy that I recently used to explain where Mean Green football is right now to an economist friend of mine: this is the difference between the technical end of a recession and that point in time when public sentiment agrees that the recession is over. There are all sorts of technical indicators for when a recession ends; however, a recession doesn't really end until a majority of the public feels like it's over. That can sometimes be one year or two years after the technical indicators say the recession is over. What happens in the interim between the technical indicators saying it's ended and public sentiment agreeing it's ended is, essentially, tangible proof that people can see and feel. Businesses ramp up operations and hire more folks, new businesses open, people with jobs see raises and expanded opportunities to advance, etc. I'd argue that Dan McCarney is the right guy for the job and his coaches are the right coaches for the job. His hiring and this past offseason are the equivalent of the technical indicators that our football recession is over. However, your average UNT student, your average Mean Green fan, and a few hardcore Mean Green fans don't feel like it's over. They don't feel like it's over because we have yet to see that tangible proof that things have turned around: competitive losses against better teams, then wins against Sun Belt teams, then non-conference wins, then back to going bowling. I feel like we're already turned around and that the tangible proof is coming, but at the same time I understand folks who need to see the proof before they'll feel the same way.

I think that the difference between the 1st quarter and the rest of the game is a combination of UNT settling in and making adjustments on special teams and defense and Christobal taking his foot off gas a bit. Hard to tell if one was a bigger factor than the other. I don't know if Riley's presence would have made a difference; the passing game's issues were another area where it was hard to distinguish between the weather causing problems and rawness of our QB and our WRs. Like calling off the dogs after the 1st quarter, I think it was both of them together. Do some of those dropped passes get caught if it's not raining and the ball's not wet? Probably. Do some of them still get dropped because they're too strong or a little too far behind in perfect weather? Probably. I agree with you whole-heartedly about the game being mostly mental. The FIU game was a great example of the adage about everyone having a plan until they get punched in the mouth. That first quarter was more like getting punched in the mouth, then trying to get back up, only to get punched in the mouth again. I don't think anyone would have blamed the guys for mailing it in in the second half, but they didn't. Besides being mostly mental, football is also about the difference in your margin for error versus the other team's margin for error. A team like our Mean Green this year has almost no margin for error week in and week out. We don't have the experience and personnel to make mistakes and go on to win despite them. A team like FIU has both the experience and the personnel to do just that. In a game like this where you have a disparity between the teams' margins for error, the underdog has to play nearly flawlessly and get a few lucky bounces to have a chance. We got some lucky bounces, but there were just enough penalties at critical times (I can think of three off the top of my head, the big pass interference call on one of our secondary guys in the 1st, another was a block in the back on a Brelan return that would have set us up nicely and the third was a holding call that negated a nice catch-and-run in the flat by Lance) and just enough dropped passes that caught up to us. We played penalty-free ball for most of the game, but the few penalties we got happened at critical junctures. And, not to forget the big contribution that FIU is very good. We matched up well in quarters 2-4.5. The backups didn't start replacing starters wholesale on either side until about halfway through the fourth quarter. In quarters two and three, it was still starters versus starters, and we played solidly on both sides of the ball in those quarters. I was particularly impressed by the special teams and defensive adjustments made after the 1st quarter. Even if Christobal took his foot off the gas, you can be sure T.Y. Hilton didn't, but the guys did a good job of containing him the rest of the way.

No matter where this goes from here, it's going to be bad! It's even worse if I say I had to pay for it!

Thanks for pointing out my error, saysojoe. I'll correct it immediately. I usually take notes during the games and write down the important things like the player numbers, but thanks to the weather, I didn't for this game. For some reason I had #17 in my mind on that play when it was actually #3 (verified that on the broadcast replay a few minutes ago). So, Breece Johnson, if you're reading this, MY BAD! I owe you an apology. I don't want to give anyone the impression that I'm only calling out players when things go wrong. I mention names and numbers because I think that's the main detail that most of us as fans want to know: who did what. I always want to give players credit before being critical of them because I'm a Mean Green fan and I want our guys to do well and I'm going to try my hardest to find the silver lining in any situation. Yes, there were other dropped passes in the game, but from my vantage point there wasn't a bigger one than that one. But I dropped the metaphorical pass, too. Like the correctable dropped passes, I'll work to be sure I don't do it again.

I would've killed for a car ride from where I parked to the stadium! I was soaked through-and-through by the time I got inside. I was proud of all the Mean Green fans who showed up; nothing about that game was ideal conditions, from the weather to the 1st quarter stampede by FIU to the outcome, but nearly everyone stuck it out to the end. I sat down by some folks who turned out to be Chris Bynes' family.

I wouldn't have said yes to this question a week ago, but after seeing them in person last Thursday, I think it's possible. I know folks here and elsewhere have made comments about them beating us to the tune they did that read like "we shouldn't be losing to a Sun Belt team like that", as if the fact that they're from The Belt means they simply can't be that good. They're serious quality, folks. I thought they might have some question marks on the offensive line and at linebacker, but I don't think those question marks are really that big of a deal any longer. Pragmatically speaking, we're not likely a good benchmark to measure them against when you start talking about their non-conference opponents, but they're playing a weak non-conference schedule. After Louisville, I think they can beat everyone else if they stay healthy. They have everything that you need to win week in and week out: Solid play from a veteran QB (Carroll), two very good running backs (Rhodes and Perry) and one solid running back rotating duties, an offensive line that will give Carroll enough time against a better pass rush than ours and that opens up lanes between the tackles, especially on the left side of the line, for the three-headed RB combo, one no-doubt superstar WR/KR/PR (T.Y. Hilton), two big and fast ends and sideline-to-sideline speed at linebacker and in the secondary. Yes, it's tempting to downgrade FIU because they're in our conference. I'd caution folks against that, though. FIU has the goods to be a special team this year. I think they could go undefeated.

I read through the discussions after I posted my write-up. I agree with you. I was surprised at how negative some folks were here. I'm probably one of the more pragmatic folks around these parts when it comes to this team's chances this year, but all the hair-on-fire stuff after only one game seems a bit much. That's not to say that I'm not sympathetic to the folks saying "no more excuses". I understand that the last thing anyone wants to start off this season with is another heavily-qualified statement like "it doesn't look so bad if you ignore all the T.Y. Hilton yardage and scoring." We've had three years of living week in and week out with this kind of heavily-qualified scramble for silver linings. To me, the difference is that this year we have a coaching staff that will have us moving in the right direction. We didn't have that these last three years. Instead of making progress, we were really only treading water. I've always felt that this season was going to be more about being competitive in losses than winning games. You've got to crawl before you walk and we're going to crawl this year. I think 5-7 would be a solid result for this team and 6-6 would pleasantly surprise me.

I'll share the pic when I get back to Denton. It was almost a foot long, chorizo on a sourdough bun with grilled onions and grilled peppers. Considering I missed the tailgate thanks to Miami rush hour, that chorizo dog was a lifesaver...and it was dang good! Almost went back for an arepa (corn cake with cheese), but my friend said the one he ate got him nauseous, so I steered clear. FIU definitely gets kudos for getting some great local food options into the stadium along with the regular football fare. Maybe we could get some Metzler's and some Mi Casita into Apogee...

Their musical selection and dance team made me think they were filming a sequel to "Drum Line" during the game, except with less talent and less booty! Their students were eating it up, though. I was really impressed with their students showing up for the game; they're clearly into the team. I was amazed to find out that their enrollment is quite a bit larger than ours. On the other hand, for a school with so many alums in the Miami Dade Metro area, there was almost no alum presence.

Thanks!

This is my first time in Miami and I've enjoyed it quite a bit; I'm not at the team hotel and haven't ventured anywhere near South Beach or the clubs. Today has been more golf and then plans to eat some more Cuban food and see the Miami Science Museum. And then eat more Cuban food! Here are my thoughts from the game. I don't think any of us saw this kind of shellacking coming, but it's happened, it's over, and there are some correctable things that I think the coaches and players will take away from it and improve on before next weekend's home opener versus Houston: ...let's talk nuts and bolts about the…game?…last night. I hesitate to call it a game, because it was more of a football massacre than a game. In the run up to the season opener, I had told everyone who would listen that one of the two keys to having a shot at upsetting FIU was keeping T.Y. Hilton from beating us. From the opening kickoff through the end of the first quarter, T.Y. Hilton came out to make a statement, and he made it. He had big plays that directly contributed to all of FIU's 28 first quarter points. His 62 yard return of the opening kickoff set up the first FIU TD, he scored FIU's second TD on a 60 yard pass from Wes Carroll, he converted a 3rd and 2 with an 18 yard reception and drew a 15 yard pass interference penalty on the drive for FIU's third TD, and he ran a 31 yard reverse to the Mean Green 1 yard line to set up the Darrient Perry 1 yard TD run for FIU's fourth and final touchdown of the first quarter. I don't think there could be a more emphatic example of letting a single guy beat you than what T.Y. Hilton did to the Mean Green in the 1st quarter. The short and sweet of the game from the Mean Green side of the ball is this: on offense, we never established a credible passing threat, which allowed FIU to tee off on Lance Dunbar and the running game. Derek Thompson didn't have much of a chance to get comfortable in the pocket as FIU's relentless pressure, although resulting in only three sacks, hurried him and knocked him down all game long. That same pressure resulted in lots of balls thrown too early or too late that were easily defended by the FIU secondary. When passes were there, too many were dropped. The one that really stung was the wide open drop by Breece Johnson Willie Taylor, a pass that would have gone for 30 yards or possibly even a TD instead when through his arms, off his number 17 3 on his chest, and into the puddles on the FIU turf. On the defensive side of the ball, adjustments were made after the first quarter, but the defense was never able to shut down FIU's running game. The Golden Panthers didn't throw for a huge number of yards, but thanks to their ground dominance, they didn't need to. When Wes Carroll did drop back to throw, the Mean Green were unable to get pressure on him. I paid attention to the line play on both sides of the ball for the Mean Green last night. That's what I decided I was going to focus on in the offseason: the lines. So much of what goes on in the rest of the game is determined by how the lines play; success on each side of the ball begins at the line and radiates out from there. Good offensive line play allows you to run the ball on any down and distance and gives your quarterback time to throw from the pocket. Good defensive line play stops the opponent's inside running game and pressures the QB from the outside. Unfortunately, I don't have much positive to say about the line play in last night's game beyond the obvious that we never established the running game, Derek Thompson was hurried and knocked down more times than not when he dropped back to throw, we were unable to stop FIU's running game, and Wes Carroll likely felt like he was wearing the red jersey in practice with the lack of pressure he had on him. I think most of us understood that this was going to be a transition year for both lines; we lost a lot of experience last year due to graduation. Going forward, though, the coaching staff and the guys in the trenches are going to have to find ways to step up and make some plays or else what's likely to be a long season will be that much longer. The injury bug bit the Mean Green in this game in a potentially big way. J.J. Johnson, our senior center, broke his non-snapping hand. If they can set the fracture, he'll miss three or four weeks. If they can't, then he could be done for the year. That would be a tremendous blow to the Mean Green o-line, a unit that after one game doesn't look like it can afford too many big blows. There are three North Texas players that impressed me in the midst of this otherwise unimpressive evening: Brelan Chancellor, Derek Thompson, and Brent Osborn. Had T.Y. Hilton not been on the other side of the ball, Brelan would have been the individual player performance talk of the game. He racked up an astounding 200 yards in returns, caught passes for 55 yards, and even rushed for 7 yards. I think our return game is safe in his hands for the season. Our two QBs also impressed me. About now, you might be asking yourself how the starting QB who went 14/27 for 167 yards and no TDs was impressive. What impressed me was his fire as exhibited in his body language. I doubt that was evident on the ESPN 3 broadcast. It was evident in person at the game. Down 28-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, Thompson was fired up. He was angry. He was in the faces of his receivers and his linemen for getting into the game late as substitutes, for dropping balls, and for blowing blocking assignments. While that's not exactly what you'd like to see from your starting QB (think more Cap Rooney from "Any Given Sunday"), I liked that he was fired up instead of dejected. I liked that he was still after his guys to do better instead of hanging his head and staring at the field as he walked to the sideline. I was also impressed with what I saw of backup QB Brent Osborn. He plays like a pocket passer, but I was most impressed with his delivery; his passes have some authority to them. It's hard to give much more of an assessment than that considering that by this time in the game FIU was subbing in a lot of bench players on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of looking forward, I think it's a good idea to think about the things that are correctable versus things that aren't correctable. Correctable issues are things that can be changed in practice. Things that aren't correctable include hoping our offensive line suddenly plays like two year veterans or that our players go through growth spurts in a month's time. On the correctable side of the ledger, I think the first priority is to get the defenders to wrap up in tackling. FIU likely would have had a third less rushing & return yards last night if the guys had gotten their arms around the FIU runners and brought them down in the first half. To both the players' and coaches' credit, it appeared that they did a much better job of this as the game progressed. Second item on the correctable side is dropped passes. The dropped passes last night were drive killers and, in the case of Johnson's drop, a real momentum killer. I would guess that the wet weather combined with the Golden Panthers' relentless pressure on Derek made for a lot of less-than-desirable balls thrown to receivers. FIU's receivers didn't have issues with drops, but then again their QB is a senior veteran who had plenty of time to throw, which led to many more receivers making grabs in stride. This is going to be one of those seasons where we simply can't afford the dropped balls, no matter the quality of their delivery. At the end of the day, though, a tip of the cap to FIU. They've got a very good squad, better even than I expected in my preview of them. As a side note, FIU's students were really into the game, but their tiny stadium wasn't even halfway full. If the cards fall the right way and given their weak non-conference schedule this season, it would not surprise me to see FIU in the Top 25 at some point. T.Y. Hilton also deserves some love for the Heisman. I think playing in the Belt will likely make him a ghost as far as the Heisman race goes and FIU's weak non-conference schedule is going to hurt their visibility, but perhaps ESPN will fall in love with him and give him that crucial national recognition that he deserves. Good luck, T.Y. I'm sure glad we don't have to play you again! This post has been promoted to an article

I blogged last week that I thought the Mean Green had a shot at beating the Golden Panthers. FIU is coming off a good season looking for a great season; they've even been mentioned as a dark horse candidate for the Top 25 if the cards fall right. There's no denying they have some serious talent, but I think that they could be looking past the Mean Green. They're a well-coached team, though, and I doubt Christobal would let his guys blow us off. That doesn't seem to be his style. My gut feeling is that if we can stop the run (their returning three-headed-running-back-by-committee hung just over 200 yards on us last year) and if we can avoid T.Y. Hilton beating us on big plays either in the passing game or in the return game, we can pull out a W. I think that Dan and his coaches are going to have the guys fired up and that the intangibles will be in our corner. Mean Green 24, FIU 21.

Excellent! I will definitely be there for the tailgate. The only way I can make lunch would be a miracle. My flight lands at 11:15am Miami time. By the time I get the luggage, get the rental car, check into the hotel, and then get to the restaurant, y'all will likely all be gone. If I end up getting in earlier, I'll certainly get over there!

The only information I could find comes from a comment on a Michigan site that indicates he was practicing with the 3rd and 4th stringers and was on his way to being redshirted. Of course, this is a comment on an article online, so there's no telling if there's any punch to it or not. Sounds plausible, though.

Thanks for posting this. I'm going to be very interested in what FIU looks like on the defensive side of the ball come Thursday!

Y'all mind one more at the tailgate? I get in late Thursday morning and I'd be happy to hit the store on my way to the tailgate for any last minute supplies.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/6894742/chris-barnett-leaves-michigan-wolverines Chris Barnett, a freshman tight end at the University of Michigan, has left the team. Barnett is from Hurst and played at L.D. Bell High School. Rivals has him listed at 6'6, 245lbs. and running a 4.5 40.

I'll be flying out of D/FW at the crack of dawn Thursday morning, arriving in Miami early in the afternoon. Going to stay through Sunday. I hope to see y'all at the game! I don't know what most of y'all look like (except for 97and03 and michagb), though...

I hope that the "no tailgating during the game" policy will have a lenient interpretation to it for a couple of reasons. First, I'm not cool with leaving my grill and coolers and chairs and canopy unattended during the game. With our group of folks, there's anywhere from two or three of us at a game to 10 to 15 of us at Homecoming. At least one person always stays behind, usually the person or people who aren't that interested in the football game. Yes, there's always at least one in our group who is there for the tailgating, not for the football. That brings me to my second reason I'm hoping for a lenient interpretation: At Homecoming, our group always gets more people for tailgating than at any other game. Probably half of those folks don't come to the Homecoming tailgate for the game; they come because the Homecoming tailgate is our Homecoming event. It's our one chance a year to all get together and visit and grill and drink and hang out. I know of two, possibly five or six folks out of our group who I doubt would come to the Homecoming tailgate if they had to leave during the game. In our group's case, and, I imagine in most groups' cases, the people who show up just for the tailgate aren't going to be the ones parking at 8am in one of the Apogee lots or the Victory lot. I imagine that the tailgate-only folks are going to be parking over by Fouts, not taking up spaces in the lots on the south side of 35. I understand the issue of limited parking and I understand wanting folks to go to the game instead of tailgate once the game has started. I think the team that Coach McCarney leads into this season will do enough on their own merits to draw fans without any need to crack down on tailgating. GMG!

That seems a little harsh, but if there's strict control over what gets played, I imagine the guy knew what he was doing. Still, that's pretty awesome! Two perfect songs for Cam.

Absolutely awesome news! LOCK THE EFFIN GATE!

What Travis wrote.

The best place to start changing the doubters' minds and shutting the haters up is to win. If we can get back to the kinds of records that we were putting up in 2001-2004 or even surpass them, that's what will change minds and possibly open pocketbooks. Will it change the bottom line for the football program? I have my doubts, but we can at least lose less money by putting a good product on the field that people will want to come see. No matter which side of the equation you fall on when it comes to the economics of college athletics, it all has to start with winning. Tossing around tags like "disgruntled intellectual" or "pseudo intellectual" won't change squat. If y'all really think Kevin is a "disgruntled intellectual", you've not been around a college or university in quite a while. SUMG: Very few college football programs make money. Most operate at a loss or break even. As it is with tax law, the way universities handle their accounting of athletics makes it difficult to pin a precise number to what that loss is or where money comes from in order to balance the ledger. For most schools outside of the six big money BCS conferences, though, football isn't a money maker. KRAM: You couldn't be more wrong about Kevin. He may have an opinion you disagree with, but he's definitely not narrow minded, nor short sighted, nor disengaged from the community.