ColoradoEagle

Wyoming more fits the profile of MWC, CUSA, or Big Sky.

This will age well.

ACC would be smart to lock up that 209th placed basketball, 7-6 football, and 1/3rd full stadium before someone else does.

Agree with most of this, however if the AAC is going to expand, this is the moment to do it. Even if Stanford/Cal go their own way, taking OSU and WSU could have a ripple effect that allows the AAC to grab SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA (immediately or eventually once the media contract runs out). That would solidify the AAC is the #5 conference and nipping at the B12's heels.

MWC hopes dashed.

Is he aware that SMU basketball would be a bottom feeder in the Sun Belt?

Woof.

The only two schools desperate enough and with enough money to be eastern outliers in a MWC 3.0 are SMU and Tulane. Even still, I don’t think it happens.

That would be the ideal situation for the MWC. That or those two schools going independent. If they decide to stay and try to rebuild the Pac, the MWC could very well be dead.

Cal absolutely can't afford to go independent. Their options (assuming invites) from best to worst are 1) Join AAC, 2) Join MWC, 3) Drop to FCS, 4) Drop football.

No, you absolutely do not pursue OSU/WSU. Those are solid MWC schools. Stanford/Cal is a different story. Aresco should be on the first flight out to SFO.

From what I've read, ESPN and Fox were willing to go to 14 with equal payouts to new members. Up to 16 was a question mark. Really doubt they'd turn around and give an equal share to all Pac refugees when they walked away from that conference in the first place.

Stanford and Cal aren't going to affiliate with a bunch of religious schools.

There's no such thing as P5 status. (Beginning next year)

There's no way Stanford and Cal swallow their academic pride and join the MWC.

$10 million

This is exactly it. The remaining Pac isn't picking apart anyone, that's a really horrible take from the writer. OSU and WSU could and should join the MWC, assuming there's an offer. Cal/Stanford is the question mark. Stanford maybe can go it independent, but assuming it doesn't, I'd expect both to land in the AAC. Dark Horse: B12 makes a last minute play for Stanford instead of one of the four corner schools.

Not even half of those would be able to/want to pay their exit fees. I also don't think a lot of people realize that with OSU and WSU, you take away their current media deal money and they're AAC level schools. No reason to jump conferences for them.

I think there's a big difference between joining a raided P5, and joining a former P5 that doesn't have the minimum number of teams required for conference play and is starting over from almost scratch on a media contract. Not to mention that any potential school invited would have to pay an exit fee from their current conference and the Pac's balance sheet is currently either -$50m or -$70m (can't remember exactly). If it gets down to 4 teams, the conference doesn't make it out of 2024.

100% this. I’m not sure how anyone could see what’s happening to the Pac and the MWC media contract and think going west is the play. At most, you take in the Pac-4 or preferably Cal, Stanford, CSU, and AFA. Probably Cal/Stanford now and CSU/AFA when 2026 rolls around. Cal has a newly renovated stadium they have to pay for and I think I remember reading somewhere that Stanford shot down the idea of ever going independent. Could be wrong on that one. Neither will drop to FCS imo.

With only four schools left, they’re going to get pulled the other direction. Go regional and join the MWC, step up from the MWC to AAC. Going independent, dropping to FCS, or dropping football all seem unlikely for the schools left over.

Too many unanswered questions still. If the B10 doesn’t take Stanford/Cal, does the B12? Do they go independent? Try to rebuild the Pac with only four teams and no media deal? If those two are left behind with no P4 options, my money is on all four joining the AAC.