Conference-USA Standings According to ESPN’s FPI

[AustinFromUNT]

The following analysis is based on numbers & percentages provided by ESPN per their FPI measure. A win is considered as being given a 55.0% chance or better of winning a game. A loss is considered as being given a 45.0% chance or worse of winning a game. A tossup is considered as being given a 45.1-54.9% chance of winning a game. For ranking divisions, wins will be worth 1.0 points and tossups will be worth 0.5 points, with a total score of 8 meaning that all conference games were won. Parentheses will be in the following order (wins-losses-tossups). The first set of parentheses will be overall record, second set will be conference record, and the third will be divisional points.

East Division: 

1) Marshall (10-2-0) (8-0-0) (8)

2) MTSU (7-4-1) (6-1-1) (6.5)

3) FAU (7-3-2) (5-1-2) (6)

4) WKU (5-6-1) (3-4-1) (3.5)

5) ODU (3-6-3) (2-5-1) (2.5)

6) FIU (2-9-1) (1-6-1) (1.5)

6) Charlotte (1-8-3) (0-5-3) (1.5)

 

West Division

1) UNT (8-1-3) (5-0-3) (6.5)

1) LA Tech (8-3-1) (6-1-1) (6.5)

3) UAB (7-3-1) (5-3-0) (5)

4) Southern Miss (5-6-1) (4-4-0) (4)

5) UTSA (4-8-0) (3-5-0) (3)

6) Rice (2-11-0) (1-7-0) (1)

7) UTEP (0-11-1) (0-8-0) (0)

Of note is that LA Tech @ UNT is currently a tossup (50.6-49.4), so a true #1 can not yet be decided in C-USA’s west division.

[Aldo]

On 5/26/2018 at 1:52 PM, AustinFromUNT said:

1) UNT (8-1-3) (5-0-3) (6.5)

So do they consider UNT vs FAU a tossup at this point?

[MeanGreenTexan]

7 minutes ago, Aldo said:

So do they consider UNT vs FAU a tossup at this point?

It appears so.  It also appears they have FAU finishing 3rd in their division with a SURE LOSS to Marshall (??, should be toss-up at best), and a toss-up with MT & us.
Apparently Marshall is just going to annihilate C-USA this year.  Silly. 

EDIT:  I also assume our other 2 "toss-ups" are LATech and USM.  Why would the USM game be a toss-up but the UAB game wouldn't?   So dumb.

Edited May 29, 2018 by MeanGreenTexan

[Aldo]

1 minute ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

It appears so.  It also appears they have FAU finishing 3rd in their division with a SURE LOSS to Marshall (??, should be toss-up at best), and a toss-up with MT & us.
Apparently Marshall is just going to annihilate C-USA this year.  Silly. 

I'll stand by my stance that they've got the talent.

As @aztecskin reminded me, they're replacing coaching staff. I think the talent overcomes it. The new OC comes from SHSU, and they put up some numbers last year. Not that it's a predictor, and I'm not familiar with what they ran, but it's at least telling what he'll be bringing in. #1 passing offense and #37 rushing offense.

[AustinFromUNT]

31 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

It appears so.  It also appears they have FAU finishing 3rd in their division with a SURE LOSS to Marshall (??, should be toss-up at best), and a toss-up with MT & us.
Apparently Marshall is just going to annihilate C-USA this year.  Silly. 

EDIT:  I also assume our other 2 "toss-ups" are LATech and USM.  Why would the USM game be a toss-up but the UAB game wouldn't?   So dumb.

Our 3 tossups are:

Vs FAU

VS LA Tech

@ UAB

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, AustinFromUNT said:

Our 3 tossups are:

Vs FAU

VS LA Tech

@ UAB

Agreed and I would say UAB may be the toughest of the 3.

[MeanGreenTexan]

27 minutes ago, AustinFromUNT said:

Our 3 tossups are:

Vs FAU

VS LA Tech

@ UAB

 

According to this line, UAB has no tossups in conference.   Am I not reading this correctly?
 

On 5/26/2018 at 1:52 PM, AustinFromUNT said:

...

3) UAB (7-3-1) (5-3-0) (5)

...

 

[AustinFromUNT]

2 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

 

According to this line, UAB has no tossups in conference.   Am I not reading this correctly?
 

 

Whoops, my bad. UAB should be 5-2-1

[MeanGreenTexan]

4 minutes ago, AustinFromUNT said:

Whoops, my bad. UAB should be 5-2-1

Gotcha.   Yeah, that makes a LOT more sense, and I agree, although I feel more confident about winning VS LATech than I do VS UAB.