Bball aficionados - how good can AJ Lawson be?

Harry · July 28, 2017

We all know he's good - my question is how good can he be? What former UNT player (or any other player) does he remind you of? How can he improve his game?

Say what you want about Benny as a coach, but this kid may turn out to be one of our better players we have had in the program. Will be fun to watch his career!

BillySee58 · July 28, 2017

I'm interested to see if we see him at the 4 some this year, with all of the guard depth we have. Something like Woolridge, Duffy, Smart, Lawson, and Arikawe/Simmons/Tikhonenko.

To me, the ideal type of player Lawson could become would be like a CUSA version of former Dallas Maverick all-star and Wake Forest great Josh Howard. Here is a comparison of their freshmen stats:

Josh Howard:

9.2 points/game, 4.7 rebounds/game, 49.2% 2-point fg, 0.3/1.2 threes per game (28.6%), 58.3% free-throw percentage, 24.9 minutes/game

AJ Lawson:

11.4 points/game, 4.4 rebounds/game, 48.9% 2-point fg, 0.5/2.0 threes per game (27.1%), 59.6% free-throw percentage, 23.1 minutes/game

So clearly numbers are pretty comparable. Lawson actually averaged more rebounds than Howard per 40 minutes as a freshman. Shooting numbers are very comparable. Howard followed this up by having very good, yet similar sophomore and junior years followed by an ACC POTY in his senior season. His line from his senior year, in which he was predominately playing the 4:

19.5 points/game, 8.3 rebounds/game, 52.8% 2-point fg, 1.7/4.6 threes per game (37.3%), 83.3% free-throw percentage, 32.3 minutes/game

Lawson will never be the defensive force Howard was, but I think he can have a similar offensive impact as Howard at the three and the four, defend both the three and the four, and rebound well enough to have the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

He averaged 5.5 rebounds/game over the last 11 games including two double-digit rebound games in that span. I don't think he'll ever be a true two-guard, but I think his skill set as a 3/small-ball 4 could really be something he excels at.

Caw Caw · July 28, 2017

15 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

I'm interested to see if we see him at the 4 some this year, with all of the guard depth we have. Something like Woolridge, Duffy, Smart, Lawson, and Arikawe/Simmons/Tikhonenko.

To me, the ideal type of player Lawson could become would be like a CUSA version of former Dallas Maverick all-star and Wake Forest great Josh Howard. Here is a comparison of their freshmen stats:

Josh Howard:

9.2 points/game, 4.7 rebounds/game, 49.2% 2-point fg, 0.3/1.2 threes per game (28.6%), 58.3% free-throw percentage, 24.9 minutes/game

AJ Lawson:

11.4 points/game, 4.4 rebounds/game, 48.9% 2-point fg, 0.5/2.0 threes per game (27.1%), 59.6% free-throw percentage, 23.1 minutes/game

So clearly numbers are pretty comparable. Lawson actually averaged more rebounds than Howard per 40 minutes as a freshman. Shooting numbers are very comparable. Howard followed this up by having very good, yet similar sophomore and junior years followed by an ACC POTY in his senior season. His line from his senior year, in which he was predominately playing the 4:

19.5 points/game, 8.3 rebounds/game, 52.8% 2-point fg, 1.7/4.6 threes per game (37.3%), 83.3% free-throw percentage, 32.3 minutes/game

Lawson will never be the defensive force Howard was, but I think he can have a similar offensive impact as Howard at the three and the four, defend both the three and the four, and rebound well enough to have the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

He averaged 5.5 rebounds/game over the last 11 games including two double-digit rebound games in that span. I don't think he'll ever be a true two-guard, but I think his skill set as a 3/small-ball 4 could really be something he excels at.

Anything particular thing you see that says he won't be that good defensively?

sparkmank · July 28, 2017

Unless McCasland & co are going to play very small, I doubt you see much of AJ at the 4, but then again who isn't throwing 4 guard lineups out there nowadays. If this kid can establish a consistent jump shot, the ceiling is the roof. As a frosh, the most encouraging thing I saw was his relentless attack of the rim. Good nose for the ball, think you'll see a great improvement defensively, just based off structure & system. Getting Woolridge & AJ to stay was arguably Benford'd best recruiting win. Both kids have the chance to be very special.

GMG24 · July 28, 2017

11 hours ago, Harry said:

We all know he's good - my question is how good can he be? What former UNT player (or any other player) does he remind you of? How can he improve his game?

Say what you want about Benny as a coach, but this kid may turn out to be one of our better players we have had in the program. Will be fun to watch his career!

I think he'll go down in the top 10 in scoring in program history. He's only going to improve with the structure GMac is bringing to the program, I was going to say Tristan Thompson but I think Lawson is much better than Tristan. He's a long guard who also has the physical ability to get in the paint and finish through contact. I was very impressed the two times I saw him play last year. Went to watch him and Woolridge, had to just focus on them as I was losing my mind watching the mess happening on the court. I am very excited for where we are headed in the program, and looking forward to watching good Bball in Denton again. Moved to Corinth from Carrollton so the drive is much more doable now.

GrandGreen · July 29, 2017

It appears to me that McCasland played mostly a 4 guard lineup last year at ASU. So I think you will likely see a lot of it here. I assume like most coaches he is going to try to go with his best players no matter what positions they are listed at. CUSA is primarily a guard league, so matchups may not be a substantial problem. NT is also blessed from what I know of the team with several guards that can really jump.

Lawson is a major talent, but I doubt he is ever played at the 4. In a 4 guard offensive lineup there is no four. The traditional 1-5 really does not apply. He also is definitely not going to get long stretches guarding a true power forward with any offensive game at all.

NT is definitely guard heavy but the decision of what primary offence NT will run could rely on the development of inside players. Really, Temara is the only known big man on the squad. Two very promising freshmen are incoming, but it is likely to take time for them to challenge for a starting position. Arikawe, the juco is the most likely to get a lot of time along with Temara. I think one of the most interesting players will be Fuller. I was really surprised he is still on the team. My guess is that the redshirt year may have really upped his play.

Back to Lawson. He has the potential to be a Chris Davis level player if he continues to improve. He is already better than Davis in getting to the basket. Don't forget Woolridge either. He didn't demonstrate the consistency of Lawson, but when he is on; he can dominate a game.