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Southern Miss, Conference USA, and the Dark Side of Realignment


DeepGreen

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" I attended USM from 2000 to 2005, a span that coincided with wins over a string of ostensibly heavier hitters — Alabama in 2000, Oklahoma State in 2001, Illinois in 2002, Nebraska in 2004 — all of which unfolded on national TV, and not all of which were upsets. It also included stunners over heavily favored, nationally ranked outfits from TCU in 2000 and again in 2003, when Southern Miss clinched the C-USA title by toppling the undefeated Horned Frogs (as well as a goalpost, which I helped escort out of the stadium) with hordes of national media on hand on a Thursday night. The fan base relished Southern Miss’s self-styled “Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere” rep, and the team generally lived up to the motto. In my freshman year, USM started at no. 22 in the AP poll and rose as high as no. 13 in early November; in my senior year, the last home game was a thrilling, down-to-the-wire loss at the hands of a loaded edition of Cal that featured Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch1 and subsequently cost the best Berkeley team of the century a spot in the Rose Bowl."

 

You know, if we had ever had this kind of run in our recent (or past) football history, we would be talking/clamoring for entrance into the B-12.  Given the football history of success of USM that we could only dream of, are we just delusional about our potential, or is USM always going to be on the precipice of this kind of collapse.

Edited by SilverEagle
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Besides the sad truth that realignment is about money, TV markets is what moves the needle. Teams like Southern Miss, Marshall, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette found out that being a winner at the G5 level won't ever move them upward because they don't come from big markets. Really, Louisiana Tech found out the same thing, as they moved from the WAC to CUSA, which was a great move for them financially, but lateral in terms of teams to be aligned with from their WAC days.

Going forward, I think the P5s will close ranks and break away, either inside the NCAA or outside of the NCAA. WHen it is done, the G5s will realign and the TV market thing will still matter, but not nearly as much as it does now, since the G5s are doing all they can to get a decent TV contract. Southern Miss might as well have been dealt heavy NCAA sanctions, since they will probably never get to rebuild their reputation as a giant-killing program back to the point where it was when they were among the very best non-AQ powers. Their fans absolutely hate today's CUSA and they would die for and AAC invite, which won't happen because that league decided a long time ago to go after TV markets first--the same applies to Marshall, too.

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Here's the ray of hope in this article to me.  Despite all of the changes in C-USA, they still have better bowl access and payouts than they had prior to realignment.  UNT unlike USM did move up in the world. We have an opportunity to build the program up in C-USA and position ourselves for future movement.

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Here's the ray of hope in this article to me.  Despite all of the changes in C-USA, they still have better bowl access and payouts than they had prior to realignment.  UNT unlike USM did move up in the world. We have an opportunity to build the program up in C-USA and position ourselves for future movement.

Yes--CUSA is a dream-come-true for UNT, even without Tulsa or Tulane. SMU did us a huge favor by moving onto the AAC to chase their P5 dream that basically blew up before it could even get launched. Otherwise, we are in the Sun Belt still, albeit with a fellow Texas school in Texas State, probably. USM can--rightfully--look down at the fact that Memphis, UH, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, and ECU have moved on, just as Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, and TCU did in years past, even when they were better at football than many of those schools. But to us, playing in a division with three other Texas schools, including an old SWC team in Rice, as well as Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss, is way better than anything we have ever had in a conference setup, in my opinion, since the 60s in the MVC.

We have moved up the FBS landscape, even if its just a rung above where we were and there are still many other recognizable regional teams above us in the AAC. To me, you can sell yourself and others on coming out to Apogee or the Super Pit to watch those schools come to town, since people actually know who they are in the Metroplex. That could never when we were in the SBC. Granted, the eastern division of CUSA is basically our old Sun Belt and worse, but playing a few of those teams in a year is MUCH better than playing them all every season. I'll take a couple of games each year with teams in this group (FIU, FAU, WKU, MUTS, ODU, Charlotte, and Marshall) over playing annual games against FIU, FAU, WKU, MUTS, South Alabama, Troy, ULM, ULL, and Arkansas State. Our conference schedule this year is golden, by far the best we have ever played: Rice, UTSA, UTEP, and WKU at home, with games at Marshall, MUTS, La Tech, and Southern Miss. If it weren't for the awful OOC scheduling here, this could have been a dream schedule when you add a game at SMU and a bodybag game at Iowa in the early season. The additional bodybag game at Tennessee and the bought game with Portland State, as well as a stupid bye in the first week of the season, are the things that really kill the overall schedule. Otherwise, if we had an AD who could schedule OOC better, this would be a terrific slate for the upcoming season. Instead, because of the ridiculous scheduling of the AD, we are facing a schedule that is more daunting than it ever should have been. We could have easily been celebrating the greatest schedule we have ever been given to follow the team, but those three weekends are just brutally stupid. It will cause a year that could have been a 6-6 type seson to turn into a 3-4 win season instead.

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I view the realignment whining about the same way I view most realignment whining and boasting.

It's a load of horse dung.

Realignment had a minimal impact USM. The realignment impact was in the schools moving to FBS to backfill. FAU doesn't get a conference home if the WAC doesn't take Sun Belt schools. Troy doesn't get a conference home but for that. ULM is still floating along as a football only and still playing in the Southland in other sports. Texas State and UTSA don't have a conference home and don't reclassify but for the WAC needing bodies.

USM starting in 1994 didn't have a losing record again until the 2012 season. In 1994, there 107 schools in FBS (UNT was in the SLC). Counting Charlotte, there are now 129. That is 22 new schools in FBS competing for talent since the start of that winning season streak. Of the 22 only Idaho, Boise State, Buffalo, UConn, and UMass are not in the CUSA footprint. That's 17 new schools in the CUSA footprint and EIGHT members of CUSA were not playing FBS football in 1994 when that streak started.

There is more competition for talent. Throw in AState and ULL paying competitive coaching salaries and multi-millions on facilities in the past few years and USM just has to fight far harder to land quality players.

But that isn't even the biggest factor.

Larry Fedora leaves USM. He has recruited a spread option team that depends on speed and tempo. The average age of Fedora and his coordinators was 48.

USM hires Ellis Johnson who has one year as a Division II head coach and three years as an FCS coach and his best record as a head coach was 6-6. They put him in charge. They take Tommy West from UAB as defensive coordinator and Ricky Bustle to be OC. If you haven't repressed your Sun Belt memories Bustle fizzled at ULL and he was a run between the tackles own the line of scrimmage guy. The average age of the head coach and coordinators was 58.3 years old.

USM basically said we despise what gave us a 12-2 record and we are going to do the exact opposite.

Realignment didn't cause that stupid decision, placing the muzzle of the loaded shotgun against their foot and pulling the trigger caused it.

Spare me the blame realignment crap the author spouts. USM made a stupid hire and is paying the price. Arkansas is making the same transition with far more resources and recruiting advantages and they are 2-14 in the SEC after two years of that.

Edited by Arkstfan
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Yes--CUSA is a dream-come-true for UNT, even without Tulsa or Tulane. SMU did us a huge favor by moving onto the AAC to chase their P5 dream that basically blew up before it could even get launched. Otherwise, we are in the Sun Belt still, albeit with a fellow Texas school in Texas State, probably. USM can--rightfully--look down at the fact that Memphis, UH, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, and ECU have moved on, just as Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, and TCU did in years past, even when they were better at football than many of those schools. But to us, playing in a division with three other Texas schools, including an old SWC team in Rice, as well as Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss, is way better than anything we have ever had in a conference setup, in my opinion, since the 60s in the MVC.

We have moved up the FBS landscape, even if its just a rung above where we were and there are still many other recognizable regional teams above us in the AAC. To me, you can sell yourself and others on coming out to Apogee or the Super Pit to watch those schools come to town, since people actually know who they are in the Metroplex. That could never when we were in the SBC. Granted, the eastern division of CUSA is basically our old Sun Belt and worse, but playing a few of those teams in a year is MUCH better than playing them all every season. I'll take a couple of games each year with teams in this group (FIU, FAU, WKU, MUTS, ODU, Charlotte, and Marshall) over playing annual games against FIU, FAU, WKU, MUTS, South Alabama, Troy, ULM, ULL, and Arkansas State. Our conference schedule this year is golden, by far the best we have ever played: Rice, UTSA, UTEP, and WKU at home, with games at Marshall, MUTS, La Tech, and Southern Miss. If it weren't for the awful OOC scheduling here, this could have been a dream schedule when you add a game at SMU and a bodybag game at Iowa in the early season. The additional bodybag game at Tennessee and the bought game with Portland State, as well as a stupid bye in the first week of the season, are the things that really kill the overall schedule. Otherwise, if we had an AD who could schedule OOC better, this would be a terrific slate for the upcoming season. Instead, because of the ridiculous scheduling of the AD, we are facing a schedule that is more daunting than it ever should have been. We could have easily been celebrating the greatest schedule we have ever been given to follow the team, but those three weekends are just brutally stupid. It will cause a year that could have been a 6-6 type seson to turn into a 3-4 win season instead.

So basically what you just said is...

It was terrible awful horrible to play FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU when the patch was Sun Belt but if the patch says CUSA they are great opponents you want to play.

And people wonder how it is that business can dump the same crap in a prettier box and get people to pay double for it.

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So basically what you just said is...

It was terrible awful horrible to play FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU when the patch was Sun Belt but if the patch says CUSA they are great opponents you want to play.

And people wonder how it is that business can dump the same crap in a prettier box and get people to pay double for it.

You had just won the thread with your first post.....and then you posted this.  In the SunBelt we had to play those schools every year.  That list used to make up 2/5 of our normal home schedule.  Now those same schools are in the East division where we will see just one of them most years.  Meanwhile, we're playing Texas based schools + LaTech & USM in our division.  Is the quality of the football being played any better?  With the way ASU and ULL have improved in the past 5 years and USM has fallen off a cliff, probably not.  But I'd ALWAYS rather have played ASU and ULL over any of the 4 you picked out anyways.  Hell, I'd rather have ASU or ULL over UTSA, today---for the reasons you mentioned in your first post---we have an additional Texas school to recruit against now.

You might find a couple outliers in our fanbase that would rather play F_U, MUTS, or WKU than ASU or ULL, but I'd venture to guess the vast majority (who pay attention) would rather be aligned with you guys.  I know I would.

 

 

*edit: no ill will meant toward WKU or MUTS.  WKU was, and is a solid add, but just too far away to really register much with Texas fans.  MUTS provided a rivalry that was fun back when we used to not suck.

Edited by TIgreen01
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You had just won the thread with your first post.....and then you posted this.  In the SunBelt we had to play those schools every year.  That list used to make up 2/5 of our normal home schedule.  Now those same schools are in the East division where we will see just one of them most years.  Meanwhile, we're playing Texas based schools + LaTech & USM in our division.  Is the quality of the football being played any better?  With the way ASU and ULL have improved in the past 5 years and USM has fallen off a cliff, probably not.  But I'd ALWAYS rather have played ASU and ULL over any of the 4 you picked out anyways.  Hell, I'd rather have ASU or ULL over UTSA, today---for the reasons you mentioned in your first post---we have an additional Texas school to recruit against now.

You might find a couple outliers in our fanbase that would rather play F_U, MUTS, or WKU than ASU or ULL, but I'd venture to guess the vast majority (who pay attention) would rather be aligned with you guys.  I know I would.

I call bull when I see it. When someone says this list is better than that list and there is that much overlap... that's bull. I don't argue UNT is better off facing regional schools but don't blow smoke up my hiney claiming playing those schools is better now because of a patch. If the list had been the nearest Sun Belt vs nearest CUSA, I nod my head in agreement and move on but please this blame Sun Belt for your ills meme is pathetic and deserves being called out.

Edited by Arkstfan
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I don't think the P5s can officially separate from the G5s until the new playoff contract expires. We have several years until that comes about. I have no desire to see C-USA split and watch the western division add ULL, Arkansas State, or Texas State under a new conference name. I think a conference like that would be too regional, and could limit our value to networks. The MAC is very regional and play most of their games on ESPN3, unless they are willing to suit up for Tuesday nights. No thank you. C-USA West is nice and regional. Having the eastern division gives us broader appeal. We just need either FAU or FIU to step up their game.

Before the new playoff contract expires, I believe C-USA will develop into a stronger conference, and these reports of upheaval from Southern Miss or another old guard program will fade into obscurity. Yes C-USA and the other G5 conferences will probably still get separated from the P5s, but we can't control that. I'd rather focus on trying to support North Texas in hope of us becoming a consistent winner. As fans, most issues are beyond our control, even within our own program.

Edited by Side Show Joe
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I don't think the P5s can officially separate from the G5s until the new playoff contract expires. We have several years until that comes about. I have no desire to see C-USA split and watch the western division add ULL, Arkansas State, or Texas State under a new conference name. I think a conference like that would be too regional, and could limit our value to networks.

I think the split is bound to happen.  P5 are obsessed with becoming NFL Lite and maxing out dollars.  The world the G5 conference will live in won't even look like the same sport.  The least of our worries will be TV money, I hope our leadership is strong and skilled enough to make the most out of it.

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I think the split is bound to happen.  P5 are obsessed with becoming NFL Lite and maxing out dollars.  The world the G5 conference will live in won't even look like the same sport.  The least of our worries will be TV money, I hope our leadership is strong and skilled enough to make the most out of it.

I can't say for certain that the split will happen. I believe you could be right. The P5s sure appear to be moving toward a professional model. I hope the new arms race of funding "cost of attendance" will wake some of those P5 university presidents up, and make them rethink their approach to athletics. Alabama just announced they were increasing their stipends (can't have Auburn paying their players more). The current system will become an unsustainable. Let's hope that happens before a split occurs.

Even if there is a split, there will be media contracts for the G5 conferences. Just like the saturated bowl season still commands strong ratings, the G5s will still draw eyeballs. America loves football. We need to focus on building our program and becoming a consistent winner. That will help elevate C-USA and position the conference for the best possible payout we can get.

Edited by Side Show Joe
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I call bull when I see it. When someone says this list is better than that list and there is that much overlap... that's bull. I don't argue UNT is better off facing regional schools but don't blow smoke up my hiney claiming playing those schools is better now because of a patch. If the list had been the nearest Sun Belt vs nearest CUSA, I nod my head in agreement and move on but please this blame Sun Belt for your ills meme is pathetic and deserves being called out.

From this point forward, I wish Sun Belt membership on Arkansas State forever...it sounds like its your favorite grouping anyway. Enjoy Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Appy State, Texas State, South Alabama, Troy, Idaho, NMSU, and ULM. When we take ULL into CUSA and yall replace them with Lamar or Nicholls State, you should feel great!! No bull, for sure!!

We will continue to enjoy playing teams in Texas that Texans care about and have actually heard of for most of our divisional games, with a few Eastern SBCUSA teams mixed in.

Again, I'm glad you guys like it and yall seem to fit in real nice in the SBC, from a competitive standpoint. But if SMU doesn't follow their dreams to the AQ Big East that is now G5 AAC, we are staring at being in the SBC while UTSA jumps right over us to replace UH in CUSA. If that had happened, with Tulane and Tulsa staying back in CUSA, as well, with the WAC probably still being a league and having Texas State, NMSU, and La Tech, that would've kept us in the SBC as the only Texas school still. That scenario would have been a nightmare for us. Its damn near impossible to get people to come out to watch any of the SBC teams, ones from our days in the league, as well as those that got stuck there today. It will still be an impossible sales job to get most folks to think about coming out to Apogee for future CUSA home games against Charlotte and ODU, both of whom just scream SBC and should have never been invited into the league. But, thankfully, we will only play two teams from the east at home every other year. We get good crowds for the Western CUSA schools--I can only imagine what it will be like if we actually had a sustained winner and hosted Rice, UTSA, UTEP, La Tech, or USM in a big game late in the season. Two years ago, we got around 25k for a November home game against UTEP.

I still think ULL and UAB will trade conference spots, eventually, but even if they don't, our league still sits higher on the totem pole, from a respect factor. That place might be higher by about 6 inches, but its higher. The SBC will always be on the bottom of the media's lists of conference rankings. Whether yall ar followed by us or the MAC, it doesn't change the fact that we got to move upward. Thank God for SMU and the AAC--they gave us the opening to finally move up. And its turned into the absolute best conference setup in our history, in my opnion.

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Even if there is a split, there will be media contracts for the G5 conferences. Just like the saturated bowl season still commands strong ratings, the G5s will still draw eyeballs. America loves football. 

America loves football but it also loves "the best", if it cared about "second best" as much then the Southland would have a decent TV contract.   

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I can't say for certain that the split will happen. I believe you could be right. The P5s sure appear to be moving toward a professional model. I hope the new arms race of funding "cost of attendance" will wake some of those P5 university presidents up, and make them rethink their approach to athletics. Alabama just announced they were increasing their stipends (can't have Auburn paying their players more). The current system will become an unsustainable. Let's hope that happens before a split occurs.

Even if there is a split, there will be media contracts for the G5 conferences. Just like the saturated bowl season still commands strong ratings, the G5s will still draw eyeballs. America loves football. We need to focus on building our program and becoming a consistent winner. That will help elevate C-USA and position the conference for the best possible payout we can get.

This is exactly right. Nothing will change in how we get consumed as a non-Power level of football. We don't get any decent coverage from the P5 media anyway--they admitted as much just a few years ago, when they said in a survey that non-P5 teams get less than 5% of their attention.

What I want is for the G5s to work on geographical conferences, letting the costs of being realigned within divisions help for a regionalized media coverage standpoint, as well as fan travel. This is going ont he full assummption that the P5s fully split away and we cannot whore ourselves out to them for our budgets anymore.  Let OOC scheduling be each year, like the NFL does in cross-divisional play, where the first place CUSA team from the previous season plays automatically other teams in certain slots in the other G5 conferences, i.e., CUSA winner plays the top MAC team, the second place team from the AAC, the thrid place team from the MWC, and the 4th place team from the SBC, then your divisional opponents in a confernece that is tighter, location-wise, unlike today in the SBCUSAAC...

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America loves football but it also loves "the best", if it cared about "second best" as much then the Southland would have a decent TV contract.   

I disagree...nobody has heard of most of those FCS (i-aa) schools, nor do they care about them. What the G5s schools have going for them is that they have fanbases that follow them at a much greater level and have a full allotment of scholarships. Of course no one nationally wants to watch McNeese State play Portland State--nobody cares about them. But a game between Fresno State and Northern Illinois gets eyeballs, especially if its a big game in a hypothetical playoff scenario, since people have actually heard of both schools and know that they have decent followings and success on the field.

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I disagree...nobody has heard of most of those FCS (i-aa) schools, nor do they care about them. 

I think the fanbase difference between LSU and us is larger than the fanbase difference between us and SFA.

 

 But a game between Fresno State and Northern Illinois gets eyeballs

They do because they are, at least nominally, considered to be part of the top level of college football.  NDSU could beat them most years but there is no clamor for them to be on TV.

 

especially if its a big game in a hypothetical playoff scenario

I don't think there is any chance the G5 will have a slot in the play off system.  They may have a hypothetical "if everyone else has two losses and the SEC dropped football and the moon was in a waxing phase on October 13th" chance at getting in.    But it will become apparent to everyone that the G5 schools will have no chance and interest will drop.

 

Now, I don't mean to be all doom and gloom.  Will the CUSA TV contract be better than the SLCs?  Yes.   Will it grow at the rate the the P5 contracts grow? No.  In fact they will probably stagnate.  People don't  DVR sports (and skip the commercials) so the CUSA contract will have some value for as long as that is true.   However TV money won't solver any of our problems.  1.1 million a year is better than 100,000 a year, but it probably isn't enough to even cover cost of attendance.  

The best way to win going forward is to become more regional, play where you recruit.  We aren't going to get many recruits out of Florida, Kentucky or Tennesse.  We are going to get recruits in Texas (mostly), and Louisiana.   Play in front of them as much as possible.  Play where your alumni are.  

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I think the fanbase difference between LSU and us is larger than the fanbase difference between us and SFA.

I agree, but the difference between LSU and Air Force is nowhere near as big as it is between AFA and SFA. We are a terrible example for any fan interest comparison--hell for years, SFA had a higher atttended game in Nacogdoches than we ever had in Denton, until we played Baylor at home.

 

They do because they are, at least nominally, considered to be part of the top level of college football.  NDSU could beat them most years but there is no clamor for them to be on TV.

ESPN has hosted gameday in Fargo, North Dakota in each of the last two seasons, because they have been good and have beaten FBS teams regularly. That said, the top G5 programs would beat NDSU if they played week in and week out. The scholarship difference would catch up to NDSU, especially during the middle of their season.

I don't think there is any chance the G5 will have a slot in the play off system.  They may have a hypothetical "if everyone else has two losses and the SEC dropped football and the moon was in a waxing phase on October 13th" chance at getting in.    But it will become apparent to everyone that the G5 schools will have no chance and interest will drop.

I agree completely--I was surmising that the G5s would produce their own playoff system, just like the FCS school do today.

Now, I don't mean to be all doom and gloom.  Will the CUSA TV contract be better than the SLCs?  Yes.   Will it grow at the rate the the P5 contracts grow? No.  In fact they will probably stagnate.  People don't  DVR sports (and skip the commercials) so the CUSA contract will have some value for as long as that is true.   However TV money won't solver any of our problems.  1.1 million a year is better than 100,000 a year, but it probably isn't enough to even cover cost of attendance.  

The best way to win going forward is to become more regional, play where you recruit.  We aren't going to get many recruits out of Florida, Kentucky or Tennesse.  We are going to get recruits in Texas (mostly), and Louisiana.   Play in front of them as much as possible.  Play where your alumni are.

That's a great point--play in your region as much as possible,  but don't play the P5 giants of the region that continue to pound you down and take away your alumni as fans. When those P5 bodybag games go the way of the dodo, schools like ours are gonna have to pay the bills in a more traditional way--cut costs for travel by playing teams in your state and region. But its my belief that when that schism occurs between the p5s and the g5s, it won't be a redux of the SLC/1-AA fiasco in 1982. We won't be playing podunk schools that people in Texas know are small-time as conference mates--we will be playing SWC royalty in SMU, Rice, and UH, as well as other Texas schools in UTSA, UTEP, and Texas State. Throw in La Tech, Tulsa, Tulane, and ULL and you have yourself a nice group of schools that have decent fanbases and TV markets. We aren't joining schools in Nacogdoches, Huntsville, Natchitoches, Lake Charles, and Thibodeaux again. People in Denton have shown that they will come out in a much bigger way for games against Texas schools that are FBS. That will play to our advantage, being able to play teams that people in our area care about still. Hell, we could even compete for--gasp!!--a national championship in a G5 level of play.  Right now, obviously, we have no chance of that because of the P5 monopoly on college football and its media.

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Actually untjim, if the split does come. I can assure you we won't be on the G5 side of it.  While you're making paragraph after paragraph on these forums, while your administration chases its tail in circles while being happy with simply existing in a heavily watered down CUSA. We are making moves and doing what needs to be done to get to where we need to be.

 

While you have wet dreams of playing in some pitiful glorified FCS, we plan on playing at the highest level. A statement made by our President, our AD, our fans and many of our BOR. 

Edited by Cougar King
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While you have wet dreams of playing in some pitiful glorified FCS, we plan on playing at the highest level. A statement made by our President, our AD, our fans and many of our BOR. 

That's adorable.  You realize no one in a P5 conference is willing to take less money just to bring a G5 in.  Not even BYU, which is miles ahead of UH.  

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That's adorable.  You realize no one in a P5 conference is willing to take less money just to bring a G5 in.  Not even BYU, which is miles ahead of UH.  

I guess that's why the Big 12 is looking at bringing a handful of G5 schools in. Do some research or the rest of the CFB world starting the recent statements made by the OU president debunking that before you comment on such things.

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